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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,861
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:36am Nov 19, 2009 3:36am
Quoting jacko
Also I find the AUD/USD not volatile enough, the GBP/USD too volatile and the EUR/USD is just right


.
Hello jacko,

I trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD. I don't think that GU is "too volatile".

All I do is that I use wider stops, and smaller lots.
  • #9,862
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:38am Nov 19, 2009 3:38am
that is a great point jacko. I always think to myself (whilst watching so many pairs now) if the usd goes backwards well anything with usd in it is going to trade in a similar fashion and hence the charts look kinda the same. Feels sorta like I am wasting some of my time watching all the pairs.
  • #9,863
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:45am Nov 19, 2009 3:45am
Quoting sibajnok
Hello jacko,

I trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD. I don't think that GU is "too volatile".

All I do is that I use wider stops, and smaller lots.
Hi sibajnok

Ok. But if you superimpose a GBP/USD chart over a EUR/USD chart and compare the pips moved by both, you will see that the GBP is significantly more volatile. Now both of the pairs are based against the USD so therefore a move in the GBP will have a greater move in USD terms than a move in the EUR.

Now, as you have said, you can get around the problem by using wider stops and smaller lots... I prefer to Keep It Short and Simple (KISS) and just trade one currency. The day you accidentally trade the GBP with your EUR smaller stops and larger lots (because you get confused between your GBPs and your EUR's ) , you had better pray that it goes in the right direction.

.
  • #9,864
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:45am Nov 19, 2009 3:45am
Quoting jacko
Hi Low

Stop looking for another indicator that will show you what the EUR/USD will do.

There is no such leading indicator. (Otherwise it would be the Holy Grail)

Look at the charts for the EUR/USD.
Put the Support line on it.
Put the resistance line on it.
Put the 50% Fib line on it.
Be aware of the additional S&R of the nearby round numbers.
Everything you need to make lots of money is all there.

.
Let me attract the attention to the readers of this very great thread, that today it has been proven again, that the above mentioned tips are working.

Just look at ANY timeframe, and you can see, that EU moves from support to resistance, from resistance to support with respectation of daily trend.
  • #9,865
  • Edited 4:27am Nov 19, 2009 4:21am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting jacko
Hi sibajnok

Ok....
I can do nothing but agree with KISS.

That is why I trade eur/usd OR gbp/usd. I don't trade paralel, and don't trade cross pairs.

Take a look at the GPBUSD hourly chart I attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_h1.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #9,866
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:16am Nov 19, 2009 5:16am
My question is 50 pip or 100 pip SL is being used?
Thanks
  • #9,867
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:44am Nov 19, 2009 5:44am
Hi,

I just wanted to say thank you for this thread to Jacko and to all other people.

I have only 8-9 month trading exp so I am really new in this business. I found that, although I like the methode I learned to trade, I just do not have the mental state for intraday frequent trading yet. Maybe never will and never need. Anyway I have this question regardint the 50 TS.

Firstly I understand that it is altered to 100 due to recent market volatility.

In a position trade, do you not get stopped out too frequently with this parametre? I mean do you never just hold on to it and let it go?

I sound super new with this question I knew. I used to think that it could be better to move SL every so often when the market is making a new Higher Low in this up trend. Perhaps it is just another method.

Thank you again.
Kind Regards zol
  • #9,868
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:21am Nov 19, 2009 6:21am
Quoting zoli
Hi,

I just wanted to say thank you for this thread to Jacko and to all other people.

I have only 8-9 month trading exp so I am really new in this business. I found that, although I like the methode I learned to trade, I just do not have the mental state for intraday frequent trading yet. Maybe never will and never need. Anyway I have this question regardint the 50 TS.

Firstly I understand that it is altered to 100 due to recent market volatility.

In a position trade, do you not get stopped out too frequently with this parametre? I...

Regarding the SL - yes it had been changed to 100 first as a TSL then fixed due as correctly stated to the volatility. Recently Wayne has started using a 50 pip hard stop again albeit he is still ready to use a 100 pip Sl if conditions warrant it.

Regarding the position trade - you are correct however given the conditons over the last 15 months it was basically impossible to do so without having massive SL's thus the (as I define it) bank run reassess strategy was implemented.

I'll let Wayne decide if he wants share more insight into how he approaches long term position trading.

Cheers
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,869
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:48am Nov 19, 2009 7:48am
[quote=jacko;3245036]
Quoting SeaPip
Yep, it seemed to contradict a bit from what was posted on page 1:

Hi seapip


No it doesn't.. not at all.

Hi Mr Jacko

Can you explain a bit further? I am confused here. Did you mean that I can actually choose to put my AH order (buy) at either 1.4750 or 1.4800... so long the price has move past my stop lost (1.4750) say 50 pips (1.4700).

Thanks
  • #9,870
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:00am Nov 19, 2009 8:00am
[quote=nazeri1111;3245740]
Quoting jacko


Hi Mr Jacko

Can you explain a bit further? I am confused here. Did you mean that I can actually choose to put my AH order (buy) at either 1.4750 or 1.4800... so long the price has move past my stop lost (1.4750) say 50 pips (1.4700).

Thanks
Hi Nazeri1111

I am not sure what you are confused about. But in the example above, if you were stopped out at 1.4800, then after the market had gone 50pips (or more) past the stop, then you place an AH order to buy at the 1.4800.

.

.
  • #9,871
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:43am Nov 19, 2009 8:43am
Quoting jacko
I am not sure what you are confused about. But in the example above, if you were stopped out at 1.4800, then after the market had gone 50pips (or more) past the stop, then you place an AH order to buy at the 1.4800.
the confusion might be that you confirmed in your answer to Big1Red9 that 1.48 is a good buy, but actually meant 1.4850 with a stop loss 1.48 ?
  • #9,872
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:51am Nov 19, 2009 8:51am
Possible option barrier 1.4800 to 1.4810 could be vigorously defended. Suggest caution approaching that level.

Regards,

BabeFX

Better to be out of the market wishing your were in, than in the market wishing you were out !
  • #9,873
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:12am Nov 19, 2009 9:12am
any feedback on whether a pip by pip TSL or 100 pip increment TSL works best with this method
thanks in advance
  • #9,874
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:20am Nov 19, 2009 9:20am
[quote=jacko;3245778]
Quoting nazeri1111

Hi Nazeri1111

I am not sure what you are confused about. But in the example above, if you were stopped out at 1.4800, then after the market had gone 50pips (or more) past the stop, then you place an AH order to buy at the 1.4800.

.

.
Sorry to bother you Sir, I was confused when reading your answered to Big1Red9 & Seapip. Let's make it clear.

Here is the scenario :

1. Buy order at 1.4800 with stop loss 1.4750.
2. Price hit stop loss 1.4750 and further down to 1.4700.
3. What price should I enter for an AH?

thanks.
  • #9,875
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:27am Nov 19, 2009 9:27am
[quote=nazeri1111;3246009]
Quoting jacko

Sorry to bother you Sir, I was confused when reading your answered to Big1Red9 & Seapip. Let's make it clear.

Here is the scenario :

1. Buy order at 1.4800 with stop loss 1.4750.
2. Price hit stop loss 1.4750 and further down to 1.4700.
3. What price should I enter for an AH?

thanks.
3. What price should I enter for an AH? The same price that you were stopped out (1.4750).

The purpose of the AH is to get ALL your losses back, so it must be where you were stopped out.

.
  • #9,876
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:40am Nov 19, 2009 9:40am
Quoting lmturek11
any feedback on whether a pip by pip TSL or 100 pip increment TSL works best with this method
thanks in advance
Hi lmturek11,

That would depend on the time frame that you are trading.

Also, we adjusted our TSL size between 50 and 100 pips due to the explosion in volatility that took place during the Great Financial Crisis. During that time, the Average Trading Range peaked at 400+ pips in a day!!! So a 50 pip SL was defenceless against that type of inter-Daily range.

But we immediately got smart and became MUCH more selective in our trades and also moved our SL to 100 pips. As luck (or skill) would have it, we came out of the GFC with very strong profits each quarter..... so the strategy to increase the SL was a good one.

Now that the GFC is subsiding we are gradually bringing the size of the SL down. This, in turn, will lower our trade risk and improve our profits.

.
  • #9,877
  • Nov 19, 2009 10:13am Nov 19, 2009 10:13am
Thank you for the kind answer. It makes sense to me to adjust the SL to current market volatility. Perhaps using ATR for the last X periods or such.
My question refers not to the size of the TSL but the application of it as a pip by pip TSL, in other words as price advances pip by pip in direction of trade TSL advances pip by pip in direction of trade OR X pip increments, in other words price moves X pips in direction of trade before TSL moves or some other means of trailing the stop loss. I hope my question is clear. But I could be wrong
  • #9,878
  • Nov 19, 2009 10:57am Nov 19, 2009 10:57am
Quoting jacko
Hi Garrye

I would expect that all of the adventurous traders in the group have "tweaked" the main method so as to trade on the shorter time frames and trade more aggressively.
But as long as the discipline of ruthlessly placing appropriate sized SL's is applied and the target prices are not ridiculously over optimistic, and the SL is moved up reasonably quickly to minimise any damage from reversals, each of the adventurous traders will always do well.

.
agree 100% .im playing by them rules,with your take on the market,and trading the extremes of the s/r levels its fitting in well moving my stop is a big factor,so no losses on these adventurous trades,so far so good.glad to see here of late the method works well
student
  • #9,879
  • Nov 19, 2009 11:42am Nov 19, 2009 11:42am
Hi All,

I am really new here. So I am in his trade now as you can see.

The reasons for my entry:

 

  1. Trend is up ATM. I remember some guys in a chat room shorting this market diligently for couple of month. That is top picking I was told.
  2. There is a 50% retrace indicated on my chart.
  3. I identified potential Support at 4810 and there is 4800, quite a round number. There is an up trend line to the bottom of the candle.

So I know that there is the 5000 above and all. I am thinking about getting to BE at 50 profit. I am at 42 ATM.

If you could please kindly comment on my trade it would be appreciated.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MYVSA_066.gif Size: 21 KB
Kind Regards zol
  • #9,880
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:55pm Nov 19, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting zoli
Hi All,

I am really new here. So I am in his trade now as you can see.

The reasons for my entry:

 

  1. Trend is up ATM. I remember some guys in a chat room shorting this market diligently for couple of month. That is top picking I was told.
  2. There is a 50% retrace indicated on my chart.
  3. I identified potential Support at 4810 and there is 4800, quite a round number. There is an up trend line to the bottom of the candle.

So I know that there is the 5000 above and all. I am thinking about getting to BE at 50 profit. I am at 42...

Hi zoli

It is a good trade

.
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