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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,841
  • Nov 18, 2009 10:43am Nov 18, 2009 10:43am
being playing more s/r levels,as the markets are ranging,and doing very well,just as jacko says adapt to what the market give us,and because they are ranging 80% of the time,my jacko method has been tweeked alittle and been playing trend and counter more than happy,getting quite a few trades because i trade cable also.so jacko your still the man in my books you got me started,and now hey what can i say.i still want the14700-50 level but happy to make good pips ,i do like the daily,move into 4 h,and enter on 15m,for these extra trades.until things start to trend the way we want.pips to everyone
student
  • #9,842
  • Nov 18, 2009 10:51am Nov 18, 2009 10:51am
maq,

here is a chart with EU4h. Disregard the purple lines. Pay attention only to the fib's . I can see 2 retracements to the 50% fib. Looks like EU is on its way to 1.5000 again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU4H.JPG Size: 119 KB
  • #9,843
  • Nov 18, 2009 11:38am Nov 18, 2009 11:38am
guys - I am learning to trade the longer term....what would you do here - price is around daily pivot and Pin bars are conflicting (One says up but another shows down). Would you await further developments before making a decision?
I was contemplating an order above/below pinbars around daily pivot?
Thanks in advance for any opinions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hourly.jpg Size: 300 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,844
  • Nov 18, 2009 12:13pm Nov 18, 2009 12:13pm
looking more like we will see 15000,if we dont break 14950,which is close,then move down to break wp,from there,ifeel a move up and looking at p/a could show us the way,would like a nice retrace to test 14800,which,i would look at a long,all messy lets see what she gives us.my thinking we need gold and dow to fall,to get out this range and 14700-50,im long 100%
student
  • #9,845
  • Edited 9:29pm Nov 18, 2009 4:00pm | Edited 9:29pm
Hello All,

I have read quite a few hours and have a basis understanding of what has been graciously shared here. I do however have a couple of questions to make sure I am following the basic rules of this method correctly. No doubt others will surface.

What is the fastest time frame chart that would be considered to be a reliable indicator of the long term trend? I have started with monthly, gone to weekly, daily and then 4hr. But is there a more specific "standard" to use?

Jacko had said that one should "determine the timeframe you want to trade". I am not clear on that point. Is that meant to say, select a 15 minute chart, determine the trend of it and trade following the rules? OR is it that once you have determined the long term trend on a weekly (weekly as example) you can trade a 15 minute chart in direction of the long term trend as determined by the weekly?

On the 3rd of November being point 1 and the 11th, point 2 for the fib study, I come up with 1.4836 at 50%. If that is correct, the price to buy is 1.4800 with a 50 pip stop loss or at 1.4750.

When looking at the price action on the days following the peak, it seems that "IF" a position was hit the sideways action of the market would have hit the stop-loss.

Assuming that is correct, then 1.4750 would be the price I would re-enter to join back in the trend. I must have missed in the reading the following.... at or about what price would one enter the re-entry price of 1.4750?

I also assume that if there is a re-entry, the same 50 pips is applied to it, taking the stop loss to 1.4700 if it got hit a 2nd time. Is there a suggested limit to the number of attempts made if taken out?

To help with the understanding of the process - what might the average number of pips be per trade and about how many trades per week or month?

Jacko and others on this forum helping, thank you.

Regards,
BR
  • #9,846
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:44pm Nov 18, 2009 8:44pm
boyan thanks
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #9,847
  • Nov 18, 2009 10:06pm Nov 18, 2009 10:06pm
Quoting jacko
What the poster has said is that the 23% (??) retracement will be hit in 90% of cases. That is simply because, the 23% is only a small retracement and so it will be hit more often than say a 60% retracement. (A 5% retracement wll be hit 99% of the time)
No, that is what I was saying. Knowing that price retraces 23% in 90% of cases is an exploitable edge. Predicting turning points aren't of importance to me. Thank you, Jacko.
  • #9,848
  • Nov 18, 2009 10:19pm Nov 18, 2009 10:19pm
Jacko,

Since you've dropped by lately, maybe you'll answer this for me. Do you pay any attention to the DXY?
  • #9,849
  • Nov 18, 2009 11:32pm Nov 18, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting garrye
being playing more s/r levels,as the markets are ranging,and doing very well,just as jacko says adapt to what the market give us,and because they are ranging 80% of the time,my jacko method has been tweeked alittle and been playing trend and counter more than happy,getting quite a few trades because i trade cable also.so jacko your still the man in my books you got me started,and now hey what can i say.i still want the14700-50 level but happy to make good pips ,i do like the daily,move into 4 h,and enter on 15m,for these extra trades.until things...
Hi Garrye

I would expect that all of the adventurous traders in the group have "tweaked" the main method so as to trade on the shorter time frames and trade more aggressively.
But as long as the discipline of ruthlessly placing appropriate sized SL's is applied and the target prices are not ridiculously over optimistic, and the SL is moved up reasonably quickly to minimise any damage from reversals, each of the adventurous traders will always do well.

.
  • #9,850
  • Nov 18, 2009 11:35pm Nov 18, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting Low
Jacko,

Since you've dropped by lately, maybe you'll answer this for me. Do you pay any attention to the DXY?
Hi Low

No.

.
  • #9,851
  • Nov 18, 2009 11:41pm Nov 18, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Low

No.

.
Thanks Jacko. I like to look at lots of things. My biggest problem is when I begin expecting correlations to persist. This game is tricksy.
  • #9,852
  • Edited 12:17am Nov 19, 2009 12:05am | Edited 12:17am
Hi Big1Red9

see below

Quoting Big1red9
Hello All,

I have read quite a few hours and have a basis understanding of what has been graciously shared here. I do however have a couple of questions to make sure I am following the basic rules of this method correctly. No doubt others will surface.

What is the fastest time frame chart that would be considered to be a reliable indicator of the long term trend? I have started with monthly, gone to weekly, daily and then 4hr. But is there a more specific "standard" to use? Daily

Jacko had said that one should "determine...
Hi Big1Red 9 (Sorry about the mess below... It is the format that I answer members by email, but it didn't work properly here Your post is in black, my responses are in red

Hello All,

I have read quite a few hours and have a basis understanding of what has been graciously shared here. I do however have a couple of questions to make sure I am following the basic rules of this method correctly. No doubt others will surface.

What is the fastest time frame chart that would be considered to be a reliable indicator of the long term trend? I have started with monthly, gone to weekly, daily and then 4hr. But is there a more specific "standard" to use? Daily

Jacko had said that one should "determine the timeframe you want to trade". I am not clear on that point. Is that meant to say, select a 15 minute chart, determine the trend of it and trade following the rules? OR is it that once you have determined the long term trend on a weekly (weekly as example) you can trade a 15 minute chart in direction of the long term trend as determined by the weekly? The main method can be used on basically ANY time frame. However, the smaller the time frame, the higher the random "noise" level. But some traders want to trade the smaller 4h time frame. So, you have to understand that sometimes, the Daily trend will differ from the 4H trend So what I am saying in the statements above is firstly, determine the time frame YOU want to trade...then apply the method

On the 3rd of November being point 1 and the 11th, point 2 for the fib study, I come up with 1.4836 at 50%. Yes If that is correct, the price to buy is 1.4800 with a 50 pip stop loss Yes or at 1.4750.

When looking at the price action on the days following the peak, it seems that "IF" a position was hit the sideways action of the market would have hit the stop-loss. Not at all..the market has not traded at 1.4800 since that 50% Fib target was set

Assuming that is correct, then 1.4750 would be the price I would re-enter to join back in the trend. I must have missed in the reading the following.... at or about what price would one enter the re-entry price of 1.4750? no...after it hit 1.4750, then you would have placed an AH order at the price you were stopped out (that is 1.4800)

I also assume that if there is a re-entry, the same 50 pips is applied to it, taking the stop loss to 1.4700 if it got hit a 2nd time. Is there a suggested limit to the number of attempts made if taken out? Only the one

To help with the understanding of the process - what might the average number of pips be per trade and about how many trades per week or month? That depends on the time frame and how often that YOU trade. But, without discussing my detailed personal trading income on a public forum, my trading has been profitable EVERY quarter since I started trading forex. And that includes the last 12 month period of the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression 80 years ago.

During that time period everyone else was losing 30%-50% of their assets. Even the great Mr Buffett took a 30% loss on his portfolio.

On the other hand, we posted some serious profits every quarter over the same 12 months. That is why traders in the group recommend me to others.

(NOTE The members of the mentor group can see all my trades and can verify them because they trade them too...but I am not going to put them on a public forum)

Jacko and others on this forum helping, thank you. Thank you
  • #9,853
  • Nov 19, 2009 12:47am Nov 19, 2009 12:47am
Quoting Low
Thanks Jacko. I like to look at lots of things. My biggest problem is when I begin expecting correlations to persist. This game is tricksy.
Hi Low

Stop looking for another indicator that will show you what the EUR/USD will do.

There is no such leading indicator. (Otherwise it would be the Holy Grail)

Look at the charts for the EUR/USD.
Put the Support line on it.
Put the resistance line on it.
Put the 50% Fib line on it.
Be aware of the additional S&R of the nearby round numbers.
Everything you need to make lots of money is all there.

.
  • #9,854
  • Nov 19, 2009 1:41am Nov 19, 2009 1:41am
[quote=jacko;3244428]Hi Big1Red9

Assuming that is correct, then 1.4750 would be the price I would re-enter to join back in the trend. I must have missed in the reading the following.... at or about what price would one enter the re-entry price of 1.4750? no...after it hit 1.4750, then you would have placed an AH order at the price you were stopped out (that is 1.4800)


Hmmmm I just realised my big mistake. All this while, I though that stop out price was same as stop loss price.

Thanks Big1Red9 for asking this question.

Nazeri
  • #9,855
  • Nov 19, 2009 2:18am Nov 19, 2009 2:18am
Stop looking for another indicator that will show you what the EUR/USD will do.

There is no such leading indicator. (Otherwise it would be the Holy Grail)

Look at the charts for the EUR/USD.
Put the Support line on it.
Put the resistance line on it.
Put the 50% Fib line on it.
Be aware of the additional S&R of the nearby round numbers.
Everything you need to make lots of money is all there.

(I love this approach)
I am just new but I love the fact jacko makes a killing only watching 1 pair and trading basic methods. It gives me alot of inspiration.
  • #9,856
  • Nov 19, 2009 2:22am Nov 19, 2009 2:22am
Would entering at the red x be a valid entry? My reasoning being that it is approaching a trend line that is acting as support.

Also, where would you set your stop loss?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #9,857
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:22am Nov 19, 2009 3:22am
Yep, it seemed to contradict a bit from what was posted on page 1:

The solution that that I found is a pretty simple one but one that has to be executed without fail...

Scenario 2

That strategy is:

1. you put a trade on and you put a stop loss of around 40- 50 pips
2. the market goes against you (horrors....I was wwwwwrong !! )
3. let the market continue...it will probably go say another 30 - 100 pips past your stop...who knows ???

4. PUT AN ORDER IN AT THE EXACT SAME FIGURE AS YOUR STOP LOSS (if you were originally "short" then place a "short" order) This ensures that when the market comes back, as it invariably does, you have a DEFINATE order in place to put you back in the market where you were originally...and you are now in the same direction as the market is moving..

5. FINALLY, the market comes back around and starts to head in the opposite direction
6. The market picks you back up on its new direction

7. THE ADVANTAGES OF THIS (THEORETICAL) STRATEGY IS THAT
a. IT HAS AN EFFECTIVE AND DISCIPLINED COURSE OF ACTION
b. IT GIVES YOU A SPECIFIC "ENTRY" POINT
c. IT REDUCES LARGE DRAWDOWNS
d. IT PUTS YOU BACK IN THE MARKET EXACTLY WHERE YOU GOT OUT



[quote=nazeri1111;3244619]
Quoting jacko
Hi Big1Red9

Assuming that is correct, then 1.4750 would be the price I would re-enter to join back in the trend. I must have missed in the reading the following.... at or about what price would one enter the re-entry price of 1.4750? no...after it hit 1.4750, then you would have placed an AH order at the price you were stopped out (that is 1.4800)


Hmmmm I just realised my big mistake. All this while, I though that stop out price was same as stop loss price.

Thanks Big1Red9 for asking this question....
  • #9,858
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:31am Nov 19, 2009 3:31am
Quoting supermatt

(I love this approach)
I am just new but I love the fact jacko makes a killing only watching 1 pair and trading basic methods. It gives me alot of inspiration.
Hi Supermatt

The reason I trade only one pair (EUR/USD) is that all the pairs are basically based against two currencies: either the USD or the YEN
Now I know zero about the YEN.

So that leaves me with just the USD based pairs
Now because most of the action is caused by an impact on the USD more than the other half of the pair (eg AUD, GBP, EURO, etc) all the USD based pairs trade (statistically) in a similar manner over the long term .
For example, all the USD pairs have been going up, not because of the other half of the pair, but because the USD is going down.
If you want to see proof of the impact of the USD announcements, compare a reaction to a US Non farm Payroll announcement versus an announcement by Trichet in Europe or the RBA in Australia or the Bank of England. The US news has far stronger reactions.
Now the reason I trade the EUR/USD is because it is the deepest market. Also I find the AUD/USD not volatile enough, the GBP/USD too volatile and the EUR/USD is just right
Thats why I trade only one pair (the EUR/USD)

.
  • #9,859
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:32am Nov 19, 2009 3:32am
Jacko,

Just to clarify, do you aim to take profit or move SL to BE at 1:1 ratio, which is 50 pips? Actually if I am not mistaken you change the SL to 100 last year right, no longer 50 pips correct?



what is the
Quoting jacko
Hi Low

Stop looking for another indicator that will show you what the EUR/USD will do.

There is no such leading indicator. (Otherwise it would be the Holy Grail)

Look at the charts for the EUR/USD.
Put the Support line on it.
Put the resistance line on it.
Put the 50% Fib line on it.
Be aware of the additional S&R of the nearby round numbers.
Everything you need to make lots of money is all there.

.
  • #9,860
  • Nov 19, 2009 3:35am Nov 19, 2009 3:35am
[quote=SeaPip;3244999]Yep, it seemed to contradict a bit from what was posted on page 1:

Hi seapip


No it doesn't.. not at all.
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