Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 492 | Forex Factory

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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,821
  • Nov 16, 2009 7:10am Nov 16, 2009 7:10am
Quoting mattfx
Hi all,
Just wanted to add my support to the forex factory forum, and to state my agreement with Jacko. The amount of abuse, and derision that exists "out there" in some of the competing forums is beyond belief. Whenever a new idea, or trading strategy is presented or proposed you are immediately surrounded by the "pit people" I shall call them, they basically live in this pit, it is futile to even attempt to help, as all they wish to do is drag you down into "their pit" and kick the the lights out of you. This forum is so refreshing, and...

Well said Matt and welcome to the "family". I guarantee this is THE place to be to learn, share and grow into a pro.

All the best in your travels bro.

Pip.
  • #9,822
  • Nov 16, 2009 7:14am Nov 16, 2009 7:14am
Okay, I'm looking to move into also doing some higher time frame trading. So, I am demo trading this for right now. Spent some time reading the posts and looks like I have a lot more reading to do.

I have a question about current situation. I see the trend went up and did a pull back to the 50% fib lines and it is going back up again. So, do I now wait for a pull back to the next round number? If/when it does that I play a buy order and apply the MM and let it ride?

Waiting for a bounce off of something makes sense to me and I did it in lower time frames just want to make sure I'm doing this right.
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #9,823
  • Nov 16, 2009 8:01am Nov 16, 2009 8:01am
Quoting simpleguy
Okay, I'm looking to move into also doing some higher time frame trading. So, I am demo trading this for right now. Spent some time reading the posts and looks like I have a lot more reading to do.

I have a question about current situation. I see the trend went up and did a pull back to the 50% fib lines and it is going back up again. So, do I now wait for a pull back to the next round number? If/when it does that I play a buy order and apply the MM and let it ride?

Waiting for a bounce off of something makes sense to me and I did it in lower...
Yeah I think what you are saying is correct. Basically when the trend is up you are waiting for a pull back to get in at a discount. In order to find a discount you use the 50% fib level and trendlines to guide you in the right direction and use the round numbers for the entry.

Regards,

Dan
  • #9,824
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:48am Nov 16, 2009 11:48am
Okay, let me check in to see if I did it correct. It just retraced back past the 50% fib and hit the 1.4900 line. I bought at that level. I'm up 50 pips right now. What I want to know, did I do this right or was it shear dumb luck?

Is the system really this simple?
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #9,825
  • Edited 1:52pm Nov 16, 2009 12:14pm | Edited 1:52pm
Here is the current EURUSD chart. I used an indicator to fill in the round numbers

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/1879/eurusd.gif

My question is, since it already bounced off the 50 fibo, should I wait until it bounces off of it again? I also don't really understand how you would trade based on the round numbers.

It also looks like jacko's method doesn't trade often if you stick with the daily and weekly timeframes like recommended.
  • #9,826
  • Nov 16, 2009 12:31pm Nov 16, 2009 12:31pm
Hi all . This is my 1st post in this awesome forum.
Thanks to Jack for starting this thread. I understood about the Anti-Hedging strategy but can someone please tell how are you using the Fib lines as your entry rules. Am fairly new to Fib retracements , because mostly used to Lagging indicators so far
  • #9,827
  • Nov 16, 2009 1:39pm Nov 16, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting Bauermania
Hi all . This is my 1st post in this awesome forum.
Thanks to Jack for starting this thread. I understood about the Anti-Hedging strategy but can someone please tell how are you using the Fib lines as your entry rules. Am fairly new to Fib retracements , because mostly used to Lagging indicators so far
Hi Bauermania,

Jacko uses Fibs as an area price may retrace to in order to buy at a discount price. Sometimes it won't make it to the S&R line and will make it to the 50% fib.
Hope this helps.
  • #9,828
  • Nov 16, 2009 2:45pm Nov 16, 2009 2:45pm
I just love today's eurusd chart. It looks like NFP Monday. LOL>
  • #9,829
  • Nov 16, 2009 4:38pm Nov 16, 2009 4:38pm
Hi guys! Today was good opportunity yo make some money on EUR/USD with Jacko! Strong support combined with round number! I entered 1.4905 and closed at 1.5000.
Last 2 week are very profitable for me! Using Jacko method i made over 30% for my account with 2-3% risk per trade. cool)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009_11_16_eurusd.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #9,830
  • Nov 16, 2009 8:07pm Nov 16, 2009 8:07pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Bauermania,

Jacko uses Fibs as an area price may retrace to in order to buy at a discount price. Sometimes it won't make it to the S&R line and will make it to the 50% fib.
Hope this helps.
Thanks Bez3000. What about the Rounded numbers he is using , like 1.4800 , 1.4900 , how is it used in the Trading ?
  • #9,831
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:39pm Nov 16, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Bauermania,

Jacko uses Fibs as an area price may retrace to in order to buy at a discount price. Sometimes it won't make it to the S&R line and will make it to the 50% fib.
Hope this helps.
Hi Bez3000

Thats a good explanation.

For the purpose of clarity, I will try to explain the fibs and the round numbers a little more clearly.

Prices move in the direction of the main trend. Within that trend there are Support and Resistance lines drawn using the highs on the charts (Resistance Line) and the lows on the chart (Support line). These are the primary lines that a market will move between. (The main trend is the dominant line)

As a market bounces off a Support line, it has two main targets. The big target is the Resistance line. But before it gets there, it usually encounters the 50% Fib line.
So.... after a market starts to bounce off the Support line, there are two targets it is drawn towards, firstly the 50% Fib and then (if it breaks that ) then it is heading to the Resistance line.

Simple so far???

Ok ..the Round numbers are psychological numbers that traders have problems breaking.
On the other hand , institutional traders like to see Round numbers as targets to hit. (Traders can have free drinks for a week for being "the one" who made the very first trade at 1.5000. Institutional traders are sad and bored traders who are easily amused..LOL)
So if a market is moving towards a Support line and there is a round number just below it, you know that it is going here.
The same applies to resistance lines

Still simple???

Ok the next issue (which I have not seen discussed anywhere on FF) is the probabilities involved in each of the above.
It is all very nice knowing that the market will bounce off a Suppport line or Resistance line or Fib line.... But the real important stuff is to know the percentages of those occurrences. The reason I don't use the other fibs (other than 50% fib line) is that they are statistically insufficiently proven to be a reliable trading methodology. I have traders who show me cases where those other Fibs have worked...but over the longer term, their hit rate for those other Fib numbers is far below 40%
If you don't know the underlying percentages of times a market will bounce off a Support line or Resistance line or a 50% Fib line, you will always have a doubt about the veracity of your method. Put another way, You will be lacking confidence in your method (NOT a good basis for your trading).

I hope that has answered some of the questions above

.
  • #9,832
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:53pm Nov 16, 2009 9:53pm
Quote
which I have not seen discussed anywhere on FF) is the probabilities involved in each of the above.
It is all very nice knowing that the market will bounce off a Suppport line or Resistance line or Fib line.... But the real important stuff is to know the percentages of those occurrences.

And with good reason. Still, I think anyone who properly trades support and resistance, or pays attention to it, will have a decent idea. I did some analysis of reactions to points of interest, and all it achieved was confirmation of what I already knew.
  • #9,833
  • Nov 17, 2009 6:42am Nov 17, 2009 6:42am
Quoting newnew
Hi, I need help, can you tell me do yo know any person who can make EA for me or if you know where I can bay it. I need a simple EA that take 10 pips in tp, and no trailing stop or stop. I am working Anti-Hedging Strategy,for ex. I am short eur/jpy and it is goes up for 50 pips, I will not close it i will open again short but now with 1,59 more value of pips, if it goes again 50 pips up I will open new short, now with 1.59 more value of pips then previous.
I need EA without indicators, only opening and closing price with Anti-Hedging Strategy.
ive got some magic beans if you want they work much better
student
  • #9,834
  • Nov 17, 2009 10:41am Nov 17, 2009 10:41am
Deja vu on the euro/dollar, wonder if it the sup. zone that price is currently at will hold this time. Will stay away for now.
  • #9,835
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:05am Nov 17, 2009 11:05am
Quoting Ellipsis
Deja vu on the euro/dollar, wonder if it the sup. zone that price is currently at will hold this time. Will stay away for now.
Yes, that seems to be the better alternative for now. Need to wait until price gets to the supp line to see what happens. Unlucky for jacko not to trade today eh.. although by the strength of this move i think price will either break the line or stick around there for a while.. won't go back up so easily/soon.
freedom
  • #9,836
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:30am Nov 17, 2009 11:30am
being a CT trade I highly doubt he would have taken it.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,837
  • Nov 17, 2009 7:23pm Nov 17, 2009 7:23pm
http://i46.tinypic.com/dy506g.gif

Quoting jacko
Prices move in the direction of the main trend.
Price goes up when buyers believe price is cheap. It's like a "shopping spree" when prices go "on sale". As the usdchf gets "cheaper" the buyers decide it is a "bargain" and run the price up.

Quoting jacko
The reason I don't use the other fibs (other than 50% fib line) is that they are statistically insufficiently proven to be a reliable trading methodology..
I recall seeing a poster talk about the weekly 23% retrace somewhere on FF. The hit rate was in the 90% range if memory serves me correctly. There may have been some Excel files to view. FF Thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27624)
  • #9,838
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:29am Nov 18, 2009 8:29am
Quoting xtraction



I recall seeing a poster talk about the weekly 23% retrace somewhere on FF. The hit rate was in the 90% range if memory serves me correctly. There may have been some Excel files to view. FF Thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27624)
Hi xtraction

I think you have misread and mis-interpreted the post about the 23% retracement (I couldn't find it in the link you provided)

What the poster has said is that the 23% (??) retracement will be hit in 90% of cases. That is simply because, the 23% is only a small retracement and so it will be hit more often than say a 60% retracement. (A 5% retracement wll be hit 99% of the time)

BUT the critical issue is whether 23% (or any other Fib number) is a turning point for the market enough times to be a profitable trading strategy

On the analyses we have done over some very serious back testing, the only Fib that has a statistically reliable rate of turning a market is the 50% fib. The secondary Fibs of 38% and 62% have a much lesser rate of success

.
  • #9,839
  • Edited 10:20am Nov 18, 2009 10:05am | Edited 10:20am
Just thought I would share my successful trade yesterday/today..(obviously would of kept quiet otherwise ).

I followed the basic thread/Jacko strategy/teachings and was rewarded.

Based on using the daily upward trend..(and 4 hour)
The market yesterday retraced through the 50% Fib at 14840 and nearly made it this time to the big round number of 14800..
This being for the third time in a row retracing to the 50% Fib and just beyond - so I couldnt resist...
Put a long order just a few pips above the Fib - in case the market returned north and not wanting to be on the wrong side of a retrace and falling knife.
As per the last 2 retracements it has repeated its journey towards 15000.
And have made good pips..
I cant be toooo smug about the trade - as its only from what I have learnt from this thread and Jacko.
But is does show that patience and the simplicity presented in the thread really do work..
And going with the major trend (if its there) helps somewhat.

Hope everyone else is having a good day..

Regards
  • #9,840
  • Nov 18, 2009 10:25am Nov 18, 2009 10:25am
can someone put up a recent chart with fib's showning

thank you
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
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