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  • #163,641
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:41pm Nov 19, 2009 4:41pm
Ok guys, seatbelts on... ASX is going down after US fell yesterday...
I also believe we can fall alot as we ended in green yesterday...

I think E/U will see some resistance around 1.4860
and A/U around 0.9140....

Fingers crossed...
  • #163,642
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:49pm Nov 19, 2009 4:49pm
Getting close to going short.
  • #163,643
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:49pm Nov 19, 2009 4:49pm
ok,in romania is 00:48 ...friday... have a nice time on charts......
Quoting Driver55
Well, I'm always long
  • #163,644
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:49pm Nov 19, 2009 4:49pm
3 times we didnt go below 4845 pivot line and that yelow indicator to much oversell so went long wiith 2 longs and small SL.That oversell was litlle higher then last time before(same chart so was thinking maybe it goes up like was others saying.On big 15 min candle at 4910 next pivot line closed them all.Now will wait to see will which side will break on 4 hr chart (now it is small range and will not play with that.Also will watch at that resistance line on 15 are we in big oversell or not.

i have clean set up on EJ so will go for it tonight and tommorrow.He made break on down on big 4 hr triangle.Maybe EU fallows him tomorrow.will see
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  • #163,645
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:56pm Nov 19, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting Driver55
Well, I'm always long

Sounds like you are buying stocks
  • #163,646
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:56pm Nov 19, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
yep.. the mom and pops and the small banks..as balloons mature and sales are down.. banks will not renew loans with lower sales in the books.. so they will foreclose. mom and pop close and layoff.. repeat cycle. then the bank will have too much reo and will fail..and so on..
Yep. and Xmas sales will be down too, putting the last nail in the coffin.. Americans are dumb enough to go on a spending spree but they don't have the credit this year. We have sqeezed the last out of this toothpaste tube. Time to start living like we've had our industry gutted, since it has been.. I know we still have manufacturing here but, we will also have about 20 million families without jobs or underemployed taxing the system in one way or another. I take no pleasure in this view.. None at all.. I personally know about 10 people that have lost their job in the past 2 months.. I think the NFP number is a big fat lie.. Notice how everywhere you read, they are already calling it a recovery.. All MSM is saying we are IN a recovery.. How absurd..
  • #163,647
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:59pm Nov 19, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
Getting close to going short.
Yeah me too.....just want to see a little more action before committing though....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #163,648
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:12pm Nov 19, 2009 5:12pm
Good MAE traders.

Simple pattern has been occuring pretty much every day this week, New York basically fades London and Tokyo (illustrated in the lines below) so that when they close the next day (roughly 28 hours later) the market is significantly in their favour.

Let's see if the same pattern occurs today; i.e. if New York faded London and Tokyo again then we should be at or around D-R1 by this time tomorrow. I have included a possible projection line of this thought.

Buy stops just above the last hourly high/weekly pivot 1.4932 (1.4929 + spread + 1 tick). SL 50 below at the MAs.
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  • #163,649
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:15pm Nov 19, 2009 5:15pm
Good day thread peeps. Yesterday's news was CHF protection, reportedly by Swiss & German Banks - that gave us the 75-pip southbound spike at the FO/LO. Well, U/C now is about where it was before that play, so: will they do it again?

What must be troubling for any E/U bear is that "the single currency" floated up after that in a world where the US stocks were tanking, oil was down, etc.

Now, I'm short from .4920, looking for tp under .4900. But I don't believe the bears have much to smile about. If the USD can't benefit in an atmosphere of "risk-aversion" - what else has it got going for it?

...Unless shit really starts to hit the fan. Santa Claus may tell that tale.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #163,650
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:18pm Nov 19, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting realjumper
Yeah me too.....just want to see a little more action before committing though....
Volume should start coming in about 30 min from now.
  • #163,651
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:22pm Nov 19, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting SerpentDove
Volume should start coming in about 30 min from now.
Yes I agree.....just enough time to make some coffee!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #163,652
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:22pm Nov 19, 2009 5:22pm
This saying has been around a long time-- I see that some traders have been commenting on it. IMHO the statement only partly correct. Let me explain:

I can see, from a Daily chart, that the E/U has been in a bullish cycle since April. I know, from basic economics, that a weak USD is good for the US economy right now. I interpret, from US policy actions, that Fed Reserve and other bodies that US will do nothing right now to stem the tide of dollar weakness. Until something happens to change these things, I expect the USD will continue to lose value until one or more of the above factors changes. I know some people think charts exist in a vaccum, and that news, policy, and geo-political decisions have no long term effect. I do not believe that.
  • #163,653
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:28pm Nov 19, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting The Fool
Good day thread peeps. Yesterday's news was CHF protection, reportedly by Swiss & German Banks - that gave us the 75-pip southbound spike at the FO/LO. Well, U/C now is about where it was before that play, so: will they do it again?

What must be troubling for any E/U bear is that "the single currency" floated up after that in a world where the US stocks were tanking, oil was down, etc.

Now, I'm short from .4920, looking for tp under .4900. But I don't believe the bears have much to smile about. If the USD can't benefit in an atmosphere...
Hey bro thanks for the vouch yesterday! Didn't see it till just now.

As buy stops are in place above the weekly piv using the hourly chart, I will be happy to trade Tokyo with a bear bias on the M15 if we don't go up.

i.e. looking for a test, retrace and break of 38.2% or just a break of 0%
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  • #163,654
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:30pm Nov 19, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes I agree.....just enough time to make some coffee!!

This is interesting,

I know I am going to be killed by saying this but bear with me...
In the markets people are always waiting for the volume to come. In my opinion if you are a scalper that's good. If not, you might up losing the "big" first move...

Meaning, every time the low session comes it's good to take a good r/r position and if you are correct, you are more likely that TP is taken out with a bigger profit than potential loss...

But hey, that's just me...
  • #163,655
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:33pm Nov 19, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting FX-Petra
This saying has been around a long time-- I see that some traders have been commenting on it....
It seems E/U could also go up on fear of China dumping their USD reserves (especially if the US decides to make noise on currency manipulation):

he markets were in a risk averse posture in early US trade. EUR/USD fell below 1.4850, USD/JPY below 88.70 and EUR/JPY below 132.00. There was no down-side follow through and the markets recovered into midday. One factor prompting traders to return to dollar-dumping was news that Senators Schumer and Graham are reviving their campaign to label China a currency manipulator. The market immediately pushed EUR/USD back above 1.49 on that report, fully aware that China could plunge the dollar into turmoil on a whim. The rebound reached the 1.4920/25 area before stalling.

by Jamie Coleman - forexlive
  • #163,656
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:37pm Nov 19, 2009 5:37pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I can see, from a Daily chart, that the E/U has been in a bullish cycle since April. I know, from basic economics, that a weak USD is good for the US economy right now. I interpret, from US policy actions, that Fed Reserve and other bodies that US will do nothing right now to stem the tide of dollar weakness. Until something happens to change these things, I expect the USD will continue to lose value until one or more of the above factors changes. I know some people think charts exist in a vaccum, and that news, policy,...
Well said & thanks, coach. The USD does not exist in a vacuum, either. There's no doubt that the US govt. wants the $ weak, but other states will militate against that. I think I remember you saying the US would get what it wants in this regard. But that does not mean there is not a limit to how weak USD can get relative to any other given currency. So exepectations, no matter how well informed, are always going to be disappointed sometimes. Will the expectation for continuing USD weakness be disappointed again and again at E/U=1.5065, or 1.53, or 1.6? Who knows? I only know that Everything Changes. Expectations are natural but don't lean too hard on them, because the day you do will be the day they fail you and you lose. That's how I interpret the old saying, anyway.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #163,657
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:38pm Nov 19, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting Larseg
This is interesting,

I know I am going to be killed by saying this but bear with me...
In the markets people are always waiting for the volume to come. In my opinion if you are a scalper that's good. If not, you might up losing the "big" first move...

Meaning, every time the low session comes it's good to take a good r/r position and if you are correct, you are more likely that TP is taken out with a bigger profit than potential loss...

But hey, that's just me...
I'm sure that you're absolutely correct, but I am always a little hesitant to enter the market just before a new session begins, especially when the past few hours have been flat lining! If I miss out on a few pips, or lots of pips, or even all the pips.....well....at least I risked nothing and lost nothing. Another opportunity that suits me better will be along sooner or later
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #163,658
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:48pm Nov 19, 2009 5:48pm
Quoting realjumper
I'm sure that you're absolutely correct, but I am always a little hesitant to enter the market just before a new session begins, especially when the past few hours have been flat lining! If I miss out on a few pips, or lots of pips, or even all the pips.....well....at least I risked nothing and lost nothing. Another opportunity that suits me better will be along sooner or later

See your point, but I know traders which especially after 2008 were looking for stocks to rise 30% and then buy...

very interesting to keep in mind when we have a crash in 2012-2013.... doesn't work in FX market though...
  • #163,659
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:09pm Nov 19, 2009 6:09pm
Also possible we just chop for Tokyo until London (unless China gives a push one way or the other).
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  • #163,660
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:15pm Nov 19, 2009 6:15pm
Here's what Boris has to say at FX360. Do you feel frustrated?

"In North America the focus will center on the weekly jobless claims numbers with the magical 500K barrier tantalizingly within view. However as many analysts have pointed out the pace of improvement in US labor conditions has been so glacial that markets have not responded aggressively to the news. With both Geithner and Trichet on the docket as well currencies could be vulnerable to whipsaw action from the rhetoric.of the two men.

Generally the price action over the past 48 hours has frustrated both bulls and bears as consolidation continues. The risk trade is looking for the next catalyst to take it higher and in the absence of such data the pressure to take profits may grow as we head into the close of the year resulting in deeper correction in EUR/USD."




"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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