Attachments: EURUSD

EURUSD

#163,321
Nov 19, 2009 3:21am Nov 19, 2009 3:21am

"expert"
| Commercial User | Joined May 2008 | 1,300 Posts

4870 new short.2 now holding all safe and locked

#163,322
Nov 19, 2009 3:25am Nov 19, 2009 3:25am

Atlast
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 4,214 Posts

Speculators tried calling the bluff of the central banks only to find they were not bluffing, shrewd move as the speculators have foreced the first hand. Now let the games begin.

#163,323
Nov 19, 2009 3:28am Nov 19, 2009 3:28am

The Fool
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,245 Posts

Quoting Atlast

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Speculators tried calling the bluff of the central banks only to find they were not bluffing, shrewd move as the speculators have foreced the first hand. Now let the games begin.

Ignored

Wires buzz is Swiss & German banks buying USD, (protecting the CHF....?)

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake

#163,324
Nov 19, 2009 3:29am Nov 19, 2009 3:29am

sinner-
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: RETIRED | 1,947 Posts

Quoting The Fool

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I recognize it is hard to be specific in an ever-changing market. But let's say you're a cub trader at a big bank and your boss comes in at the London open and says, "Buy Dollars - move the E/U price down 10 pips in the next 10 minutes." Can it be done? And, if so, how much USD are you likely going to have to buy to do it?

Ignored

If you are interbank you look for closest SL cluster (obvious area, just look at tick volume and add a few pips), push the price up on futs to hit the stops (assuming as the bank, you can see there is no opposition), suddnely all those contracts are liquidated as buys and pushes the price up even higher you can help it along buying futs but this is all under the main assumptions:

You are the bank so you can see SL clusters and also that there are no big offers on the table against you. Generally it works the opposite, when your interbank buddies in another countries see you pushing stops they of course hop on for the ride (as their own volume stops will be in similar area).

#163,325
Nov 19, 2009 3:31am Nov 19, 2009 3:31am

nahman
| Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 456 Posts

gbp/usd gapped up on open on new candle - reversal possible?

also bullish divergence in momentum on g/u....

#163,326
Nov 19, 2009 3:31am Nov 19, 2009 3:31am

Atlast
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 4,214 Posts

Quoting The Fool

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Wires buzz is Swiss & German banks buying USD, (protecting the CHF....?)

Ignored

clue, the speculators are targetting CHF. the other pairs just follow.
that's it from me today. Must concentrate. Yesterday missed a move as was replying to a post.
Pips to everyone.

#163,327
Nov 19, 2009 3:35am Nov 19, 2009 3:35am

Martingale
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Volume is everything | 972 Posts

Gold broke trendline -> going down -> EURUSD follows -> AUDUSD as well... could it be?

#163,328
Nov 19, 2009 3:37am Nov 19, 2009 3:37am

"expert"
| Commercial User | Joined May 2008 | 1,300 Posts

Ok heare is the numbers about hungry americans.I know i said no more from me but just this numbers.

More then 49 million-that is i think 1 out of 7-didnt have enough food during last year and more then 1/3 was hungry during the day not because they didnt have time to eat but because they didnt have anything to eat.USA goverment starts to make this investigation 14 years ago and this is the highest number so far.

So how can be USD strong then.

Now black humor :speaking in traders language i am estimate a retrace in this numbers them more up.Everything has his cycle.If you are no.1 time will come when you will be history and no.300(i dont know how many countrys are in this planet)

All the numbers are from USDA agency (they do this,they are some part of agriculture department i think or something like that)

#163,329
Nov 19, 2009 3:40am Nov 19, 2009 3:40am

Martingale
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Volume is everything | 972 Posts

Quoting "expert"

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(i dont know how many countrys are in this planet)

Ignored

195

#163,330
Nov 19, 2009 3:46am Nov 19, 2009 3:46am

"expert"
| Commercial User | Joined May 2008 | 1,300 Posts

Quoting Martingale

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195

Ignored

Just that much.Oh man i was

#163,331
Nov 19, 2009 3:49am Nov 19, 2009 3:49am

sinner-
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: RETIRED | 1,947 Posts

Quoting "expert"

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So how can be USD strong then.

Ignored

Here is a quote from Galapagos by Kurt Vonnegut written in the 70s, the last time everyone was this hungry...

The national currencies of all six guests at the El Dorado, the four Americans, one claiming to be a Canadian, and the two Japanese, were still as good as gold everywhere on the planet. Again: The value of their money was imaginary. Like the nature of the universe itself, the desirability of their American dollars and yen was all in people's heads.
And if Wait, who did not even know that there was a financial crisis going on, had carried out his masquerade as a Canadian to the extent of bringing Canadian dollars into Ecuador, he would not have been as well received as he was. Although Canada had not gone bankrupt, people's imaginations in more and more places, including Canada itself, were making them unhappy about trading anything really useful for Canadian dollars anymore.
A similar decay in imagined value was happening to the British pound and the French and Swiss francs and the West German mark. The Ecuadorian sucre, meanwhile, named in honor of Antonio José de Sucre (1795-1830), a national hero, had come to be worth less than a banana peel.

(still holding shorts, should've added more at the hourly high like I said I would -- too busy chasing Vonnegut quotes for you guys, lucky I'm technically on hols -- maybe add some short stops to the low of this hour once its closed)

#163,332
Nov 19, 2009 3:54am Nov 19, 2009 3:54am

X.Oden
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Spartan Attitude | 1,500 Posts

So basically what you are doing is using the EURGBP as your insurance policy in case the EURUSD goes against your original position based on the triangular cross formula below which basically shows over a period of several hours / days that even if EURUSD moves, the EURGBP would stay within 10-15% correlation value such that EURUSD

As to the math behind the EURGBP lets see....

EURGBP = EURUSD x GBPUSD

.8911 = 1.4860 x 1.0184

if

.8911 = 1.4860 + 1.0184 = 2.5044

Basically the values for EURUSD and GBPUSD can change but the EURGBP can remain constant thus the EURGBP reduces your risk against an off entry for the EURUSD or used as a lagging pair.

Thus if EURGBP moves up, the general direction for EURUSD would be up and vice versa.

I only focus on the USDCHF and EURUSD when dealing with my hedges....long run, mathematically, it works out best for me, but it depends what you are doing with the pairs and how it fits in your strategy.

Quoting Driver55

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the world does not change for 50 pips up on USDCHF.
can still be distribution.

If then, yours was a question, to know what "mathematical" correlation exist between the various cross, then perhaps we can talk

Ignored

In Charts We Trust!

#163,333
Nov 19, 2009 3:59am Nov 19, 2009 3:59am

gatorinla
Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,186 Posts

Quoting gatorinla

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ok ill play the game.. lets see if 4898 has something to say about it then 4844 if so i got a game plan.. that may include 4810 and 4777... but im still a seller at oil 82. its possible i wont get that chance. current 4924

Ignored

shhhh .... back to sleep.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can