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  • #163,121
  • Nov 18, 2009 7:44pm Nov 18, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting realjumper
Sounds about right...there's a kind of h&s on both the kiwi and the aussie that, if true, will give the 90 pips +or- that you speak of......
i got in early.. this late in trade i recommend nothing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #163,122
  • Nov 18, 2009 7:52pm Nov 18, 2009 7:52pm
room to run below .4925
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #163,123
  • Nov 18, 2009 7:55pm Nov 18, 2009 7:55pm
Quoting The Fool
Nobody knows. Even Big Dog doesn't know what he wants to do. .4810 to .5060 is starting to feel pretty cramped though. For a few hours there I got sucked in by Uncle Ben; he said he was gonna "keep an eye on" the USD value. Right, like if it busts through 1.51 he might pop a cap in a sucka. But, yeah, he was just backin up Obama while the boy-prez was running the commie gauntlet in Red China. And, btw, isn't it kinda funny how the commie Chinese are 10x the capitalists that anybody in the West will ever be?


Hi Fool,
Smiling every time I see your name…

What your saying is very true and important to keep in mind (that you can’t control the price). But Trichet talked about this earlier as well (not only on this capitalism conferance)… I guess we just have to wait and see and keep SL's close...

Quoting realjumper
I guess S1 at 4884 is a good start?


If wee break 1.4910 …. I am bear… adding on 1.4900 break... But I have to say, its tempting to go bull now…

Quoting gatorinla
well kiwi is testing a minor support area and if it dont hold. it should be worth 90 pips.. anyway its a commodity pair.. as in commodities are priced in usd and you get the eu picture . the anti dollars are commoditys..


Interesting, thanks for pointing me over there
  • #163,124
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:00pm Nov 18, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting Larseg

Trichet talked....
Like the boy crying wolf. The more they say "strong dollar" without doing anything to actually bring that about, the less attention the market players pay. In fact, if Timmy Geithner says "strong dollar" in the next day or so I can guarantee you E/U will break 1.51.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #163,125
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:03pm Nov 18, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting The Fool
room to run below .4925
Yeah, there seems to be a hold up at that level at the moment. This bear run is not too convincing yet........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #163,126
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:11pm Nov 18, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting The Fool
Like the boy crying wolf. The more they say "strong dollar" without doing anything to actually bring that about, the less attention the market players pay. In fact, if Timmy Geithner says "strong dollar" in the next day or so I can guarantee you E/U will break 1.51.

I hear you and I agree. Its going to be interesting to see the COT release tomorrow...
  • #163,127
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:19pm Nov 18, 2009 8:19pm
Quoting The Fool
Like the boy crying wolf. The more they say "strong dollar" without doing anything to actually bring that about, the less attention the market players pay. In fact, if Timmy Geithner says "strong dollar" in the next day or so I can guarantee you E/U will break 1.51.
the biggest controller of currency is trade. if you want eu to go up buy a beamer. so usd can be converted to euros. the less trade (demand) the less its worth. the less jobs the less beamers. no matter whos says what. supply and demand control this. sure they can move it a few pennies with interest rates.. supply and demand moved it almost 40 pennies in 4 months last year. japan stock markets are losing value each week..deflation..... u.s. has a much better chance of inflation then does europe. at some point hype will die. reality will catch many off gaurd.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #163,128
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:20pm Nov 18, 2009 8:20pm
I was short since ysterday morning, now at BE
Can i still hold and wait for a few pips profit or should i close?
EU heading in which direction? 1.48 or 1.51?
  • #163,129
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:22pm Nov 18, 2009 8:22pm
Good MAE guys.

Everyone is trying to figure out where it will go it seems. Bad luck for you, because it isn't going anywhere just yet!

Talk on the wire of this Double No Touch options business and other stuff. Here are thoughts on the issue from Jamie Coleman of forexlive:

At 7 this morning EUR/USD was trading in the low 1.4950s and here we are eight hours later, right at the same levels. EUR bulls are a bit disappointed that the single currency was unable to keep pace with gold which set a fresh record just above $1150 today. That, combined with comments from the Fed’s Bullard suggesting that the Fed won’t hike until 2012, should have lit a fire under the EUR, but it was more like a flicker. We managed 1.4990 but another round of Asian central bank sales helped keep a lid on the market.
The moral of the story is that we rarely go from the bottom of the 1.48/1.5050 range in a straight line. There are usually some wiggles along the way. The wiggles are as a result of the Asian name defending the extremes of the range offloading the protection in the middle. To illustrate, yesterday they bought the low 1.48s and today sold the high-1.49s, giving them fresh ammo to defend which ever side comes into play next. Today was one of those wiggles…
Some are pinning hopes on the 1.48/1.51 structure expiring this Friday to help break us out of this range. Word of warning. Often, these folks will rollout the trade using some of their winning, keeping markets all bottled up in the process….

Daily chart makes it plain to see, yesterday was an inside bar. But trading the breakout might not even be safe, my rudimentary EW count puts us squarely in a corrective wave C down currently (wave B up was from 1.4625 - 1.5048). Unless we break up and confirm the 17th Nov low was the wave C low there could still be more chop on the way!

I would say if you are a swing trader trying to build a new position it's pretty much time to call 09 quits and wait for next year. Otherwise need to see a sustained break and close above or below the wave B range to confirm direction!
  • #163,130
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:27pm Nov 18, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting sinner-
Good MAE guys.

Everyone is trying to figure out where it will go it seems. Bad luck for you, because it isn't going anywhere just yet!

Talk on the wire of this Double No Touch options business and other stuff. Here are thoughts on the issue from Jamie Coleman of forexlive:

[color=red]At 7 this morning EUR/USD was trading in the low 1.4950s and here we are eight hours later, right at the same levels. EUR bulls are a bit disappointed that the single currency was unable to keep pace with gold which set a fresh record just above $1150 today. That,...
i read something like this a month ago..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #163,131
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:30pm Nov 18, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
i read something like this a month ago..
wood down is where we go ....
Let us be green
  • #163,132
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:33pm Nov 18, 2009 8:33pm
Yeah, there seems to be a hold up at that level at the moment. This bear run is not too convincing yet........



Hi im new to trading and this thread, i trade using pivots, i am looking at the eur/usd and it has broken the pivot so im looking at placing a short, however reading your comments it has put doubt in my mind, can you elaborate as to why you are holding on the short and expecting to go long?

cheers
NOTHING VENTURED, NOTHING GAINED
  • #163,133
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:41pm Nov 18, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting leafarct
wood down is where we go ....
ok ill play the game.. lets see if 4898 has something to say about it then 4844 if so i got a game plan.. that may include 4810 and 4777... but im still a seller at oil 82. its possible i wont get that chance. current 4924
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #163,134
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:43pm Nov 18, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
i read something like this a month ago..
Are you sure? A month ago wave 5 was still strong in progress with high inverse USD correlation along with gold, AUD, etc. We are certainly in a different market to a month ago, in my view.
  • #163,135
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:45pm Nov 18, 2009 8:45pm
Quoting sinner-
Are you sure? A month ago wave 5 was still strong in progress with high inverse USD correlation along with gold, AUD, etc. We are certainly in a different market to a month ago, in my view.
yes im sure cause i wrote it. its when i quit trading eu except a few scalps..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #163,136
  • Nov 18, 2009 8:58pm Nov 18, 2009 8:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
the biggest controller of currency is trade. if you want eu to go up buy a beamer. so usd can be converted to euros. the less trade (demand) the less its worth. the less jobs the less beamers. no matter whos says what. supply and demand control this. sure they can move it a few pennies with interest rates.. supply and demand moved it almost 40 pennies in 4 months last year. japan stock markets are losing value each week..deflation..... u.s. has a much better chance of inflation then does europe. at some point hype will die. reality will catch many...

Nzd/usd just broke out southbound from a double inside day and has the gap to fill for an initial target.

I'm the biggest euro bull around but things are looking, ummmm, shaky for dollar bears.

Things change pretty quick round here. I just read the charts, I tell ya what.
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"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #163,137
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:02pm Nov 18, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Nzd/usd just broke out southbound from a double inside day and has the gap to fill for an initial target.

I'm the biggest euro bull around but things are looking, ummmm, shaky for dollar bears.

Things change pretty quick round here. I just read the charts, I tell ya what.
if those early round bottoms mature it will be more then that. on cad and usdx
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #163,138
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:06pm Nov 18, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Nzd/usd just broke out southbound from a double inside day and has the gap to fill for an initial target.

I'm the biggest euro bull around but things are looking, ummmm, shaky for dollar bears.

Things change pretty quick round here. I just read the charts, I tell ya what.
That's not just a double IB!

It's a proper IB+NR4+Low volatility breakout! Good eyes! Could be worth a few hundred pips minimum.
  • #163,139
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:14pm Nov 18, 2009 9:14pm
Quoting sinner-
That's not just a double IB!

It's a proper IB+NR4+Low volatility breakout! Good eyes! Could be worth a few hundred pips minimum.

i dont really understand alot of the posts. does this mean that the nzd/usd will continue to fall or are you intending a likely stong rise?

cheers
NOTHING VENTURED, NOTHING GAINED
  • #163,140
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:15pm Nov 18, 2009 9:15pm
Quoting sinner-
Are you sure? A month ago wave 5 was still strong in progress with high inverse USD correlation along with gold, AUD, etc. We are certainly in a different market to a month ago, in my view.
i said i would long at lower white line and short at the upper one. or short at 82 oil... i said there was easier money to be made other places and a fortune could be made or lost where we sat. anyway this is the reason i wasnt trading eu much.

82 oil was about where we were last high.. economy and oil will stagnate above 82 plus oil.. and the longer above the deeper the crash..

economy is much weaker then last time..we cant afford 80 plus oil.. and if we crash again when oil runs up.. we got a pres willing to get us off oil this time. the saudis dont want this. they would lose their biggest customer and their protector. so they will try to keep oil below a level that will hurt them.. this number is unknown.. but each time we get around 80 stocks slip.. thats why i want 82..but will add shorts anywhere above.

hey those white lines are from pairs conception and are respected. this is a necked chart mostly.. but same lines are on ass chart.
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