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EURUSD

  • #162,761
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:21am Nov 18, 2009 2:21am
Quoting Atlast
Clue for EU is GU. Gu is struggling to hold a drop area. On technicals it should be stronger, but there is concern today. Play the fear in the market.
i think 1.6838 should be hit first, anyway i am out at BE now
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #162,762
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:24am Nov 18, 2009 2:24am
I am long eur at 1.4905... this after getting whipsawed last evening... short on break below 1.482..and stopped at 1.484. Caught the short audusd move well...short at .9285 and TP at .9245.

Non technically speaking I have a serious concern on the break of EUR/Gold correllation.

Also, I notice that equity / USD index correllation has failed the past week. There are a couple of reasons I can think of -

1) Central Bank intervention - verbal or actual. Mainly the asian CBs could be actual buyers of USD in the spot market.

2) Positioning before a big equity move. Maybe a precursor of what is to come in equity markets

Till now, in the entire rebound on equity markets, currencies have been a leading indicator of equity moves...

Or maybe this is just a consolidation before currencies break higher... anyone has more thoughts?
  • #162,763
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:24am Nov 18, 2009 2:24am
Quoting Atlast
Clue for EU is GU. Gu is struggling to hold a drop area. On technicals it should be stronger, but there is concern today. Play the fear in the market.
actually the clue is the dollar..gu is lagging
  • #162,764
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:27am Nov 18, 2009 2:27am
Quoting micho
i think 1.6838 should be hit first, anyway i am out at BE now
was rather hoping to see it get to 1.6869 so i could jump all over it as money smacks it down, but it's not getting there quick
  • #162,765
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:29am Nov 18, 2009 2:29am
come on bull ! why so shaky?
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #162,766
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:33am Nov 18, 2009 2:33am
Quoting TexasforEX
Interesting read:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33981546


...this one, too.

http://www.kathylien.com/site/forex-...nanke-comments



Kathy Lien says,

"The last time Bernanke surprised the market with a comment on currencies was back in June. According to the following hart, the EUR/USD fell 4 percent in the 2 weeks following Bernanke’s comment. ......Interestingly enough, a 4 percent drop in the EUR/USD would take the currency to 1.44, the former breakout zone. I think any drop will be limited to 1.4650-1.47."

Of course, that was then, and this is now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #162,767
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:35am Nov 18, 2009 2:35am
Quoting nAVIN2007
he is just one view..i doubt it somehow..dollar is about as low as it can fall and euro is high..look at the chart u see monthly small boddy and a rejection of the 1.50 on dailly with a bearish engulf

is the chart saying up or down?
also weekly previous low and be seen and past...

forget that dude...

It's in US's interest to keep the dollar down (due to its massive debt), especially in the short term... however if oil prices continue to increase that will put some upward pressure on the dollar. (because of its massive oil consumption).

It could be that there are some trying to keep the dollar down but considering the number of times that EURUSD has failed to keep its head above 1.5 could mean that they are becoming a bit exhausted. Or, maybe that is their strategy after all, to keep the EURUSD bobbing back and forth around the 1.5 range.
  • #162,768
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:36am Nov 18, 2009 2:36am
Quoting fontu
come on bull ! why so shaky?
fontu
Probably because I just logged on and sold
  • #162,769
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:40am Nov 18, 2009 2:40am
fiber short now at market
Thus far win(7), Loss(3)

The last trade below rallied to 4893 from 4841 (17NOv - 18NOv)
Quoting StephanusR
Entry was at 4841, peaked at 4860, Drawdown to 4808,thus winning trade:
Win(7), Loss(3)
  • #162,770
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:40am Nov 18, 2009 2:40am
I'm long from 1.49. Frankly, I was ready to short, but as I said, I would wait for London open to decide. Target: 4932
  • #162,771
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:41am Nov 18, 2009 2:41am
From the Goldman Sachs technical team -

EUR/$ is a cross that tends to go up at this time of year . Starting from 2000, from Nov 17th EUR/$ has closed higher at the end of December a pretty astounding eight out of nine times. On average EUR/$ has moved up over 6.3% from open to its high print. We all know the reasons behind this seasonality. The reasons for this potential strength looks to have even more weight this year as players need to get their hedge ratios in order after a year where many started the year with lots of extra long USD positions in their portfolios due to the "Great Unwind Crisis". Looking at "normal" technicals, there is also weight to this trade as if EUR/$ can close above 1.5064, then a move to 1.5300 looks highly likely.
  • #162,772
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:44am Nov 18, 2009 2:44am
Quoting caldera
It's in US's interest to keep the dollar down (due to its massive debt), especially in the short term... however if oil prices continue to increase that will put some upward pressure on the dollar. (because of its massive oil consumption).

It could be that there are some trying to keep the dollar down but considering the number of times that EURUSD has failed to keep its head above 1.5 could mean that they are becoming a bit exhausted. Or, maybe that is their strategy after all, to keep the EURUSD bobbing back and forth around the 1.5 range.

yes i agree cannot know for sure for sure there is conflict with oil and gold, dollar long term may be in the tiolet but friggin hell...not in a straight line..im short..but who the hell knows

gold just shot through the roof......
  • #162,773
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:48am Nov 18, 2009 2:48am
Is there any way to get USD index chart in MT4 ?
  • #162,774
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:49am Nov 18, 2009 2:49am
Quoting The Fool
...this one, too.

http://www.kathylien.com/site/forex-...nanke-comments



Kathy Lien says,

"The last time Bernanke surprised the market with a comment on currencies was back in June. According to the following hart, the EUR/USD fell 4 percent in the 2 weeks following Bernanke’s comment. ......Interestingly enough, a 4 percent drop in the EUR/USD would take the currency to 1.44, the former breakout zone. I think any drop will be limited to 1.4650-1.47."

Of course, that was then, and this is now....
I also think so , the drop can be limited but intermediate 1.46 and or spike down 1.4530 ( 50% fib )
lets see what actually will.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #162,775
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:49am Nov 18, 2009 2:49am
Quoting ahlude
sell stop @ 4882. Anyone shorting too ?
sell stop cancelled. waiting for pull back provided 1.4900 hold then for entry to go long
May the pips be with me !!!
  • #162,776
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:52am Nov 18, 2009 2:52am
Quoting plan-b
out at +50

will be on the look out for a small short above 1.49 with a stop in the 1.495 area..

Short 1.4925
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #162,777
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:54am Nov 18, 2009 2:54am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yes i agree cannot know for sure for sure there is conflict with oil and gold, dollar long term may be in the tiolet but friggin hell...not in a straight line..im short..but who the hell knows

gold just shot through the roof......
must remember to keep an eye on gold... and as long as it keeps going up it'll keep the Euro firm and the Dollar weak... and it seems everyone's buying into gold these days...
  • #162,778
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:55am Nov 18, 2009 2:55am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Is there any way to get USD index chart in MT4 ?

MetaTrader 4 FOREX Ltd has USD chart
  • #162,779
  • Nov 18, 2009 2:58am Nov 18, 2009 2:58am
Quoting caldera
must remember to keep an eye on gold... and as long as it keeps going up it'll keep the Euro firm and the Dollar weak... and it seems everyone's buying into gold these days...
Gold is a quirky beast, correlation may not be as cut & dry as you may think.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #162,780
  • Nov 18, 2009 3:03am Nov 18, 2009 3:03am
Quoting caldera
must remember to keep an eye on gold... and as long as it keeps going up it'll keep the Euro firm and the Dollar weak... and it seems everyone's buying into gold these days...

yup..
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