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System 2 (AUD trading)

  • #61
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:16pm Nov 17, 2009 11:16pm
Do you target or play the plan (let price take you out?) This is directly related to 5min AUD during ASIA only. NOT EUR.

I find the runners iN AUD quite weak.. want to know your opinion.


Quoting shodd
Hi folks, en0x just pointed me in this direction, hope to contribute a little to the discussion.

1 trade for today -

IN - 0.9295
OUT - 0.9276
+ 19

Happy to field questions if you have them.
Survive and Preserve
  • #62
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:21pm Nov 17, 2009 11:21pm
Quoting John888
Good entry. There is some good advice on the System II thread regarding taking profits too early, might be worth a look if you haven't done so already.
Still holding atm John, yes, still have to read thru the whole thread, taking me a while still, just browsing through this one quickly though, seems the general consensus is that runners are'nt overly common with the aussie? Or is the aussie traded exactly the same as the euro, as shown on the other system thread?Thats why i wasn't looking for too much, couple big bear candles on my chart atm however.

cheers
  • #63
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:27pm Nov 17, 2009 11:27pm
I think we need to explore this, how much is a good run for Aussie during asia without massive news moving it?

Lets play and look together , I am glad we got some people. I am long with you on this since 9281, HH has formed which was higher then the previous pullback, we are not in any danger yet which is good. Bearish candles are also having smaller bodies so we might see another attempt at the HH. watching HH to play number 1 to preserve. If it fails I will bail and set new entry above.


Quoting skris
Still holding atm John, yes, still have to read thru the whole thread, taking me a while still, just browsing through this one quickly though, seems the general consensus is that runners are'nt overly common with the aussie? Or is the aussie traded exactly the same as the euro, as shown on the other system thread?Thats why i wasn't looking for too much, couple big bear candles on my chart atm however.

cheers
Survive and Preserve
  • #64
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:41pm Nov 17, 2009 11:41pm
AUD in the general rising against the USD and it is best to trade long after large retracements. Now is the time for long.
  • #65
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:41pm Nov 17, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting en0x
Do you target or play the plan (let price take you out?) This is directly related to 5min AUD during ASIA only. NOT EUR.

I find the runners iN AUD quite weak.. want to know your opinion.
Have to go out for a bit. Will answer in detail later tonight.
Leonardo Follower
  • #66
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:42pm Nov 17, 2009 11:42pm
Quoting en0x
I think we need to explore this, how much is a good run for Aussie during asia without massive news moving it?

Lets play and look together , I am glad we got some people. I am long with you on this since 9281, HH has formed which was higher then the previous pullback, we are not in any danger yet which is good. Bearish candles are also having smaller bodies so we might see another attempt at the HH. watching HH to play number 1 to preserve. If it fails I will bail and set new entry above.
A key aspect of this method, for the Euro, is the offset between profitable runners, and a low success rate on each trade. The runners are critical to balance out the high rate of losing/BE trades, and if profits are taken early, the runners will be missed. To use a target profit level requires a higher success rate on each trade.

So what will the success rate be on AUD using SystemII? Should it be any different from the Euro.
testing the market
  • #67
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:45pm Nov 17, 2009 11:45pm
Hi John888,

This is exactly my point. The problem I have been seeing the last few weeks is the runners are very rare. so will it work? Not sure. The question is shall we try target method 1 first and if so what target shall we attempt?

Or should we check out the runners and see how they perform and play the plan.?
only trading live will get use stats.


Quoting John888
A key aspect of this method, for the Euro, is the offset between profitable runners, and a low success rate on each trade. The runners are critical to balance out the high rate of losing/BE trades, and if profits are taken early, the runners will be missed. To use a target profit level requires a higher success rate on each trade.

So what will the success rate be on AUD using SystemII? Should it be any different from the Euro.
Survive and Preserve
  • #68
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:47pm Nov 17, 2009 11:47pm
What basis have you come to this conclusion?

Quoting DDtrader
AUD in the general rising against the USD and it is best to trade long after large retracements. Now is the time for long.
Survive and Preserve
  • #69
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:48pm Nov 17, 2009 11:48pm
we on a free ride now gents.
Survive and Preserve
  • #70
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:48pm Nov 17, 2009 11:48pm
New fcr at 9284
testing the market
  • #71
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:56pm Nov 17, 2009 11:56pm
Shodd, I just read your post on AUD times in the other thread.

All I can say is I like it

I do often see movement at 10:30am Sydney time though, which is around 9:30TKY time, so I will start my morning around 10am Sydney and trade AUD to 11pm at night

Lets do this gents, as a famous person onces said, lets kick ass and chew bubblegum... and I am all outta bubblegum...



Quoting shodd
Have to go out for a bit. Will answer in detail later tonight.
Survive and Preserve
  • #72
  • Nov 17, 2009 11:58pm Nov 17, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting en0x
Hi John888,

This is exactly my point. The problem I have been seeing the last few weeks is the runners are very rare. so will it work? Not sure. The question is shall we try target method 1 first and if so what target shall we attempt?

Or should we check out the runners and see how they perform and play the plan.?
only trading live will get use stats.
That would be a disaster, lol, if there are fewer/smaller runners than the Euro ! I guess some forward testing is called for, as you say.

Looking at today, the 11.50 am 3 hour "runner" was 20 - 25 pips, but the exchange rate difference means this equates to 30 - 38 pips on the Euro.
testing the market
  • #73
  • Nov 18, 2009 12:01am Nov 18, 2009 12:01am
Exactly, so lets drop the load and test test test.


Quoting John888
That would be a disaster, lol, if there are fewer/smaller runners than the Euro ! I guess some forward testing is called for, as you say.

Looking at today, the 11.50 am 3 hour "runner" was 20 - 25 pips, but the exchange rate difference means this equates to 30 - 38 pips on the Euro.
Survive and Preserve
  • #74
  • Nov 18, 2009 12:05am Nov 18, 2009 12:05am
Basically we are in uncharted territory , so lets chart it and find out what expectation should be for AUD

Quoting en0x
Exactly, so lets drop the load and test test test.
Survive and Preserve
  • #75
  • Nov 18, 2009 12:10am Nov 18, 2009 12:10am
Enox mate, so where's your stop now? Around the .9284 region the new fcr, as pointed out by John, that's where i got out for about 6 pips, and needless to say am regretting it. I'm settled, no more targets for me. Some bubblegum for me too please sir
  • #76
  • Nov 18, 2009 12:12am Nov 18, 2009 12:12am
Stop is under the FCR at 9285 (so you are right). So my actual stop is at 9282 (9285 -3)


Quoting skris
Enox mate, so where's your stop now? Around the .9284 region the new fcr, as pointed out by John, that's where i got out for about 6 pips, and needless to say am regretting it. I'm settled, no more targets for me. Some bubblegum for me too please sir
Survive and Preserve
  • #77
  • Nov 18, 2009 12:32am Nov 18, 2009 12:32am
Closed the long for +12 ont he failure to break the HH, reentry above that to not miss trade. Although we do have london coming to an open soon.
Quoting en0x
Stop is under the FCR at 9285 (so you are right). So my actual stop is at 9282 (9285 -3)
Survive and Preserve
  • #78
  • Nov 18, 2009 1:16am Nov 18, 2009 1:16am
Re-entered the long at 9301. Hlding , new HH has formed.
Survive and Preserve
  • #79
  • Nov 18, 2009 1:43am Nov 18, 2009 1:43am
Was delt a fakeout therefor played number 2 and closed at -1. Not hoping and preying. London has 30 mins till open
Quoting en0x
Re-entered the long at 9301. Hlding , new HH has formed.
Survive and Preserve
  • #80
  • Nov 18, 2009 1:52am Nov 18, 2009 1:52am
My long update. Closed for -1, played number 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 112 KB
Survive and Preserve
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