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  • #162,601
  • Nov 17, 2009 3:53pm Nov 17, 2009 3:53pm
Given the bearish engulfing pattern on the daily of both EURUSD and AUDUSD along with some peculiar price action (seems like some unraveling of positions) in gold the past hour or so I'm going to start putting together a plan of attack on the short side with 100pip stops. There's also a major gap in NZDUSD that will get filled sooner or later - probably this or next week.

Looking at mainly the weekly pivot at 1.4929 for placement depending on price action.
  • #162,602
  • Nov 17, 2009 3:57pm Nov 17, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting cloggie
I just looked at your stats and you closed a trade at a loss of 121 pips, was there no time during that slide down that you could have closed it earlier? You need to set yourself some rules regarding stop losses and stick to it. Use 30,50,60 or whatever is comfortable for you, but don't let a trade go 120 pips against you if it means 14% of your account. Your r/r ratio is out of wack compared to the cash in your account.

You won 37% out of your short trades and 50% out of your long trades; at this rate your account won't last more then a few days.

Your...
LOL! Save me from myself... too true!

I couldnt figure out why it kept going down, all the indicators in the world seemed to say it was in extreame overbought territory and im of an opinion the fall today is the result of a Central Bank. -

However, one of the things I need to start doing more is plotting the daily/weekly pivots as they seemed to play a key role. I used to do that when I first started a year ago, but they never seemed to "work".

Stop losses are something I havent figured out yet. There have been several trades where I put a SL only to have it triggered then the price turn around and go the other direction. Currently I use a 35 pip SL once i move a SL to BE as that seems to be just enough room to allow for standard retracement.

What I need to do is get some old spreadsheet I made and calculate my entry size according to where my SL is (once I figure that out).

The stats your looking at are my brand new ECN account that I just moved to from a standard account... take a look at the link in a previous post... (scary).
  • #162,603
  • Nov 17, 2009 3:59pm Nov 17, 2009 3:59pm
Exsilium, I just took a brief glance at your primary account and you seem to overtrade often. When a trade goes against you for 50 pips you enter a new trade in quick succession and lose another 50 pips. There are quite a few trade sequences of 5-10 trades in quick succession losing you hundreds of pips at a time. You seem to want to quickly recover your loss resulting in a further and at times larger loss. You have trading days were you lose 500 pips in quick succession.

You should read up on money management and plan your lot size according to your account balance. I trade 5-10 size lots but have an account balance several times the size of yours.

You need to swallow your pride and get out of losing trade a lot quicker. Then sit back and evaluate why the trade was a loss before you enter the next one.

If you enter a trade and your SL is triggered only for the market to turn around shows that you thinking about the market was correct but your entry was wrong. Look over that trade and figure what would have been a better entry. If the SL hits and the market turns, enter correctly.

Be patient, I am still long from 48100
  • #162,604
  • Edited 4:16pm Nov 17, 2009 4:02pm | Edited 4:16pm
Good morning! Lovely day here in Australia.

The bourse is ready for a bullish start but will it continue?

Anyways, I would like to shear my sheet I read every morning and sometimes while trading.... It helps me, so maybe it will help you
I used to have stuff written on post-it notes *be patient etc.. but that is not enough, I needed more so here it goes...


Discipline cheat

We give in to our fear when we don’t take the next trade because we’ve just been through a string of losers and fear losing again. We give in to our fear when we put our stop loss too close and get stopped out of a trade without giving the trade enough room to develop. We give in to our fear when we freeze as a trade starts to lose money, and we don’t take the exit signal because we’re afraid of losing money.

We give in to our greed when we take a profit early, before the regular signal, because we don’t want to give back any of the profits. We give in to our greed when we trade more contracts than we normally would because we feel good about this trade.

To be a disciplined trader, you have to know how and why to enter the market, when to exit the market, and where to place your money management stops. You need to manage your risk and maximize your cash flow.

Even the market gurus and famous traders don’t make money from their predictions; they make money from proper trading discipline. Over the years, they have learned the discipline to control their risk through money management. They have learned to take the trades as they come, and not forgot a trade because they are second-guessing their strategy or the market. These are the same practices that you will learn to include in your trading strategy.

Who are you to second guess your strategy?

Sound money management and risk control are the keys to being a profitable trader. It is not the prediction or the latest and greatest indicator that makes the profit in trading, it is how you apply sound trading discipline with superior cash management and risk control that makes the difference between success and failure.

Today, you will love to lose. You will love to lose because your money management will let you bee in the market getting it back plus more.

You are done trying anything else.
  • #162,605
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:03pm Nov 17, 2009 4:03pm
4 Hour Continuation Ascending Triangle. - Emerging pattern.
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  • #162,606
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:16pm Nov 17, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting cloggie
Exsilium, I just took a brief glance at your primary account and you seem to overtrade often. When a trade goes against you for 50 pips you enter a new trade in quick succession and lose another 50 pips. There are quite a few trade sequences of 5-10 trades in quick succession losing you hundreds of pips at a time. You seem to want to quickly recover your loss resulting in a further and at times larger loss. You have trading days were you lose 500 pips in quick succession.

You should read up on money management and plan your lot size according to...
Thank you for your sound advice and encouraging remarks
  • #162,607
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:23pm Nov 17, 2009 4:23pm
Resistance forming at 4880 on H1. This needs to be pierced before Tokyo opens so we can move our journey up.

I especially hope so for Exsilium's sake.


Then again what do I know...
  • #162,608
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:28pm Nov 17, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting Exsilium
4 Hour Continuation Ascending Triangle. - Emerging pattern.

That is interesting, but isn't that drawn wrong... ?

on that chart you can't put a resistance/support line on a wave which isn't done forming... (red circle)...

Unless they are using the support line horizontally on the left side...

See my yellow lines? that is the "correct" wedge.... Bearish wedge...

But hey, what do I know
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  • #162,609
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:33pm Nov 17, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Larseg
That is interesting, but isn't that drawn wrong... ?

on that chart you can't put a resistance/support line on a wave which isn't done forming... (red circle)...

Unless they are using the support line horizontally on the left side...

See my yellow lines? that is the "correct" wedge.... Bearish wedge...

But hey, what do I know
I think it's ok, b/c it bounced right on the line. It's basic trend lines not Elliot Wave.
  • #162,610
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:39pm Nov 17, 2009 4:39pm
my area posted in the beginning of London session worked great
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  • #162,611
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:41pm Nov 17, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting Protogenos
It's a double no touch option. The rumor is that China has huge DNTs at 4800 and 5100, therefore they would intervene to keep the euro from reaching either of those levels until the options expire. Now if I only knew if it were true and when they expired lol
yeah, if true and expiration date, easy money trading the range...but the people from China are prudent and can keep a secret, so this might not be true. Whoever let's this secret out could face execution.
  • #162,612
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:48pm Nov 17, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting wwwin
I think it's ok, b/c it bounced right on the line. It's basic trend lines not Elliot Wave.

Anyway, its a good probability trade from here I reckon...

But when Trichet talked about USD yesterday (bullish)... One thing that concerns me; he normally gets what he wants

remember JPY couple of years ago...
  • #162,613
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:49pm Nov 17, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting wwwin
yeah, if true and expiration date, easy money trading the range...but the people from China are prudent and can keep a secret, so this might not be true. Whoever let's this secret out could face execution.

I heard on the grapevine it expires Friday.
  • #162,614
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:49pm Nov 17, 2009 4:49pm
well guys I'm going to bed.
I leave you with this consideration :

EURUSD
From my point of view in the last 5 days, we have not yet had a real short signal on daily basis.
Also, there are signs for the beginning of a long swing.

USDCHF
The market is still short and it seems even in this market, to start a wave short.
On the basis of the daily openings , (for whom this night will be in front of the monitor), I would look at the following levels:

EURUSD 14843
USDCHF 10186

Above and below this levels, nothing changes

Good night
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #162,615
  • Nov 17, 2009 4:56pm Nov 17, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting cloggie
Resistance forming at 4880 on H1. This needs to be pierced before Tokyo opens so we can move our journey up.

I especially hope so for Exsilium's sake.


Then again what do I know...

Why must our journey be up?????
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #162,616
  • Nov 17, 2009 5:03pm Nov 17, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting realjumper
Why must our journey be up?????
Because your a nice guy?
  • #162,617
  • Nov 17, 2009 5:08pm Nov 17, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting Exsilium
Because your a nice guy?
I am getting a little tired of people who keep on parroting that 'the trend is up'. The trend IS NOT UP, and it hasn't been since the high of 5062 on 26/27 October. It is equally risky to go long as it is to go short that the moment, because the trend is sideways....and that is a fact
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #162,618
  • Nov 17, 2009 5:08pm Nov 17, 2009 5:08pm
AutoChartist just posted two emerging Falling Wedge patterns, one on the M15 and one on the M30.

On another note, below is my interpretation of a tool put out by IBFX. IN the right most column I put a multiplier, starting at M1 with x1 and at H4 with x6. The 20 represents the total of that column and the overall score. We have bee climbing steadily with a score around 10 and all of a sudden I have a 20 score. Granted, this is reliable at all, but I have this thing for numbers... The reason the multiplier increases as the timeframe goes up is that the longer timeframes are more reliable.

Hang on... it got formated funny...
Attached Image
  • #162,619
  • Nov 17, 2009 5:09pm Nov 17, 2009 5:09pm
Hi all, I agree that the trend is up. However, today the USD is up, and Gold is even higher. Gold looks like it is a little over cooked. any thoughts on what will happen to the USD if gold pulls in?
  • #162,620
  • Nov 17, 2009 5:10pm Nov 17, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting wwwin
yeah, if true and expiration date, easy money trading the range...but the people from China are prudent and can keep a secret, so this might not be true. Whoever let's this secret out could face execution.

Yeah most likely misinformation I mean come on nobody in china wants to be the reason china looses money, most people love life and want their children to have children of there own, if you know what I mean. But there is some funky bacon being cooked up that for sure.

I myself think people are putting to much into the upcoming "holiday season retail / increase in jobs for X-mas". X-mas will most likely gives us some lumps of coal but a smart person can turn that coal into diamonds when the time comes.

For right now I banked 100 pips on my EUR/USD short last night sometime while I slept and I'm waiting for another short signal now.
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