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  • #162,221
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:09pm Nov 16, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Well, honestly, Chicky, my knowledge along these lines is quite slim. I have only begun studying & thinking about currencies and macroeconomics & such within the last year. The position of the USD as the world's reserve currency dates back to the aftermath of WWII and Breton Woods, but this is history that can be easily googled. Or, if you can afford Amazon.com (or if it is in your local library) - I recommend "Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System" by Barry Eichengreen.
Thanks for the reference.

You may find it interesting that in early 2007 every pair I used to demo trade looked going in one direction that was north. I used to wonder about that, but finally this changed in 2008 and in a big way.

Thanks again, I will do my homework.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #162,222
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:10pm Nov 16, 2009 11:10pm
Quoting toshi

One time I saw 8000 contracts offered in the Euro front month, about 1 billion euro.
That's pretty good size for the futures market.
Finally it vanished and within half a minute the price spiked up 15 pips, then down 15 or 20 pips,
then went right back to where it was before the order. Crazy.....

Now, I for one think there's value in watching this, especially if you have an order pending.
A raw price chart is fine for the big picture, but this is something different.
I will probably always be an amateur in forex. but I've seen it done in equities. What happened was probably that some big house had a fixed price order to fill. Say someone needed 100-200 mil, Euros in a hurry. DB or someone else would give them a quotation, and then at some slow time of the day, would spike the offer just below the deal they had made. Holding a large block over the heads of the market like that would tend to scare traders and to keep the price down. That way the house makes the commision plus however much they can skim off the price..
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #162,223
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:19pm Nov 16, 2009 11:19pm
in a situation like that if you aren't greedy or threatening to the house. As people drop offers just below the 'block' you can snipe off a few. You have to be quick and have your order loaded. Somtimes though, the buyer is content with the market price and just collecting the commision, then you aren't getting any special deal.
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #162,224
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:27pm Nov 16, 2009 11:27pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...5AG0I720091117

Keep pushing people. If the stoutest suits from the Fed, the IMF, Golden Sacks, etc all get behind her and push, I bet they can get the old euro shitwagon over the hump and on the way to 1.6....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #162,225
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:32pm Nov 16, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting The Fool
I do too, except I tried for a while, and it was kinda like trying to read chinese. Now I just look at volumes, after the fact, on the chart.

For anyone who is interested in futures volumes do check out the VSA thread here on FF. (VSA = Volume Spread Analysis) ...& there is also a really nice chunk of one on Traders Laboratory, too.
Just seeing the volume apparently involeved at the reaction low area , not any less did at much lower levels .using tick volumes comes with mt4.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #162,226
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:44pm Nov 16, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Larseg

An interesting quote. But like Mr J says, it is a generalisation. There doesn't need to be a black and white argument about whether discretionary trading is better or worse than technical trading,

I think that the issue has more to do with a disciplined system of trading rules. The problem with discretionary trading is that it is more likely to be undisciplined and more based on "gut-instincts" and feelings.

A technical method based on more explicit rules (eg S&R lines, 50% Fib and round numbers) tends to take away [b]some...
Hi Jacko,

This is interesting though, first I would like to say this. You are correct. It depends on how bulletproof your rules are and the discipline.

But as you said; a more likely to be undisciplined.

IMHO there is no more, I have no room for a second variable. There is no reason to test a bodybuilder's chocolate needs if the chocolate can be out of sight. Or an alcoholic needs for drinking...

I will rather have a loss than partly right. Because these partly rights will only give me drawdown disease which will kill my account and have actually done so when I first started.

Have I become a true mathematician? and I.... which used to hate math (except from the chapters about probability).

I am not trying to be an ass like Elderman was to his fellow traders while learning the turtle system. I am just interested in everyone's opinion so I don't miss out if there is a new trick in the book.

Being completely honest I am not sure where this quote is going either so I will stop here before I destroy it completely... And for those who got offended, I am sorry... But hey! I got your attention
  • #162,227
  • Nov 17, 2009 12:27am Nov 17, 2009 12:27am
Quoting Exsilium
I think I made it to confusing.. I originally had 4 entry points, the last of which was at 14960 which was just under the 38.2. However, I had a 15 pip TS on it which got triggered shortly after and I didnt re-enter at that point ... out of fear honestly.

I had also started my dollar cost averaging at the 23.6 level which is why my average entry is 14980 (was 14975)

I dont understand what you mean when you say, "38.2% from whole move from 1.4880 up 1.514?" Its never hit 1.514 has it? Or are you talking extension and not retracement? Or was...
Good morning for all.

Exsilium,

Sorry for the late answer. Maximum rate EU yesterday was 1.5014 bro. First text submitted missed the zero of 1.5014, but less than one minute after checking my text, i correct it. You were very fast to read and reply lol.

Good trading for all.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #162,228
  • Nov 17, 2009 12:28am Nov 17, 2009 12:28am
We have been about 5 days in a 200 pips range.

Can anyone speculate a little about when EUR/USD will start to go down?

Lets say about 300/400 pips down.
  • #162,229
  • Nov 17, 2009 12:45am Nov 17, 2009 12:45am
Quoting seb
We have been about 5 days in a 200 pips range.

Can anyone speculate a little about when EUR/USD will start to go down?

Lets say about 300/400 pips down.
Daily Trend is up. but getting a little choppy. we could still blast off. as far as a huge 300-400 pip loss in the USD from here, could happen. this is the time for that kind of correction, as it seems to want to meander it;s way lower at this time. that would be a huge correction. and so I would be surprised to see such a big pull back. if we make a lower high here, it does not negate the trend, but it could be a sigh of a turn? we gotta close well above 1550 ish and hold
  • #162,230
  • Nov 17, 2009 12:45am Nov 17, 2009 12:45am
Just updating the small diamond like pattern in lower tf . without any strong news now it breaks below the midline but to validate it should reach to the reaction low 1.49 ( without wick of one candle) & with it 1.4874. If only breaks & hold below those level will consider break & may go as far as 100-133 pips from respective levels .Anyway nothing too shiny yet may go some up any time .
So logical tp should be 1.49 as there may be 30-40 bounce & next tp 1.48 , if any more as bonus well.

It is about what I am doing by logic only & no inbuilt suggestion for any,if any want help me escape any great loss please do suggest.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #162,231
  • Nov 17, 2009 12:56am Nov 17, 2009 12:56am
Quoting fontu
Just updating the small diamond like pattern in lower tf . without any strong news now it breaks below the midline but to validate it should reach to the reaction low 1.49 ( without wick of one candle) & with it 1.4874. If only breaks & hold below those level will consider break & may go as far as 100-133 pips from respective levels .Anyway nothing too shiny yet may go some up any time .
So logical tp should be 1.49 as there may be 30-40 bounce & next tp 1.48 , if any more as bonus well.

It is about what I am doing by logic only & no inbuilt suggestion...
Good morning Fontu, Once you find a pattern near a top you should take it, no questions asked, you can only be wrong and the pattern gives it's SL.
It's not a pattern I am good at spotting and don't have experience trading the diamond, but if you find it and have some experience trading it, just go for it. The thing about tops is that it catches people unawares.
Again, you could only be wrong and your SL placement gives you your limit.
later.
  • #162,232
  • Nov 17, 2009 1:02am Nov 17, 2009 1:02am
Quoting notch
The market really doesn't like these levels. Historically, it has spent a very short amount of time here. Historically, both both parties have agreed that these levels do not represent value but since the auction process caused an upward distribution from the following levels 1.35503 to 1.36013 on numerous occassions we favour demand being cut once price has been bid up to 1.46209.

Once 1.46209 has been achieved it is likely that there will be period of consolidation between 1.36905 - 1.46209. However, the auction process is likely to continue...
its relevant for today
  • #162,233
  • Nov 17, 2009 1:06am Nov 17, 2009 1:06am
Quoting notch
The market really doesn't like these levels. Historically, it has spent a very short amount of time here. Historically, both both parties have agreed that these levels do not represent value but since the auction process caused an upward distribution from the following levels 1.35503 to 1.36013 on numerous occassions we favour demand being cut once price has been bid up to 1.46209.

Once 1.46209 has been achieved it is likely that there will be period of consolidation between 1.36905 - 1.46209. However, the auction process is likely to continue...
and continue.....
  • #162,234
  • Nov 17, 2009 1:22am Nov 17, 2009 1:22am
Autochartist pattern complete. Possible target 1.5000.
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If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #162,235
  • Nov 17, 2009 1:23am Nov 17, 2009 1:23am
Quoting Atlast
Good morning Fontu, Once you find a pattern near a top you should take it, no questions asked, you can only be wrong and the pattern gives it's SL.
It's not a pattern I am good at spotting and don't have experience trading the diamond, but if you find it and have some experience trading it, just go for it. The thing about tops is that it catches people unawares.
Again, you could only be wrong and your SL placement gives you your limit.
later.
Thanks Atlast, morning to you too. not using pattern indicators nor measing accurately fibs or anything ,just by general views & pa action I take my decision.
Anyway as it is before frankfurt & london open I placed sl high enough(though above 1.4973 should be enough) as false spikes expected & the diamond may not hold anymore in time , many times seen it .Thanks , fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #162,236
  • Nov 17, 2009 1:47am Nov 17, 2009 1:47am
good morning everyone.

I missed quiet some party yesterday on the €, just when it started to move my tradestation crashed and how lucky am I just in the moment where I wanted to enter a trade. In some respect I am glad I didnt enter as yesterdays spikes down and up where very strange.
Its like nothing happened we are there where we where yesterday at the same time. I see on my chart still some support in the 30-40 area same as yesterday. € broke out of its upwards channel and is now in a ver tight sideways channel 4999-4935. I might trade today like this:
if it comes down to 35 I buy with tight sl tp 1,5, if it breaks with force down I short and tp it to 4880. Its all on my chart....

Good trading everyone,
The Cat
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Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #162,237
  • Edited 2:06am Nov 17, 2009 1:50am | Edited 2:06am
Quoting Larseg
Hi Jacko,.....................But hey! I got your attention
Larseg, I think he is gone for about a year or so.

ps. Turveyd, you may like to come out. Ak is also gone. Let's party.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #162,238
  • Nov 17, 2009 2:19am Nov 17, 2009 2:19am
Bloody news from swissy-land ruined my perfect long setup! Bloody fundamentals! I hate them!

How can I become a millionaire in 3 months with those bloody news getting into my way!

Trade forex, they said! You will be rich, they said!
  • #162,239
  • Nov 17, 2009 2:27am Nov 17, 2009 2:27am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Bloody news from swissy-land ruined my perfect long setup! Bloody fundamentals! I hate them!

How can I become a millionaire in 3 months with those bloody news getting into my way!

Trade forex, they said! You will be rich, they said!
Everyone finally comes to this conclusion just prior to leaving these forums and probably trading.

These news never let you trade. One option is to trade the news, but they make it impossible to trade the news.

I have a solution ......................................... no there is no registration fee to become member.

Close your eyes (or flip a coin if you are addicted to techincals) enter a trade. Make sure this trade is very small probably 0.25% of your account. Now see where it goes, if it gives you 1% profit, close it. If it gives you drawdown, manage this trade.

How to manage this trade? To the best of your abilities.

Try this for one month, if it works fine, if not, repeat.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #162,240
  • Nov 17, 2009 2:29am Nov 17, 2009 2:29am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Bloody news from swissy-land ruined my perfect long setup! Bloody fundamentals! I hate them!

How can I become a millionaire in 3 months with those bloody news getting into my way!

Trade forex, they said! You will be rich, they said!
Then news trade may work for the long , gbp news in 1 min.sorry 1hr. till then no improvement may happen.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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