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  • #162,201
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:52pm Nov 16, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting TexasforEX
It is very possible that the market will consolidate between 1.4940 and 1.5040 for some time before it breaks out to the topside.

1.4940 is looking to be a solid floor. couple lots Long at 1.4950
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #162,202
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:57pm Nov 16, 2009 9:57pm
its not a floor more like a pivot.
  • #162,203
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:59pm Nov 16, 2009 9:59pm
Quoting TexasforEX
1.4940 is looking to be a solid floor. couple lots Long at 1.4950
Alrighty then, 1.4940 to 1.5060, let the ping-pong marathon begin....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #162,204
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:00pm Nov 16, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting toshi
Most everybody here knows that I probably have more fun on this thread than I should .
But I do have a serious question for Jacko.

Hi Jacko,

What would you say is the best source of indicative volume for spot forex ?

I watch cme & globex futures and I think it is a fair representation on average
of fx market volumes at most given times. Do you recommend a different source ?
Hi Toshi

I think the question can best be answered by asking WHY you want see volume? In futures trading it is well known that brokerage houses will put multiple levels of huge buy orders UNDER the current buy price. The orders were just there to get other (retail) traders excited and bid the prices up.

The brokerage then sells into that buying and then whip all of their buy orders out after they have sold all the lots they intended. The buying market then collapses and the brokers then start to close out their trades.

The second half of the answer is that I can see everything in the movement of price. I don't need to look at other indicators for what is blatantly clear on the raw charts

.
  • #162,205
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:08pm Nov 16, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting TexasforEX
1.4940 is looking to be a solid floor. couple lots Long at 1.4950
I will wait for the RSI to go below 30 and cross up, that has been working like clockwork latety in pinpointing bottoms...but as they say...just as you know all the anwers, they change all the questions.
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  • #162,206
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:16pm Nov 16, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting jacko
Hi ak4X

For a moment there, I thought ALL those posts by Turveyd were about me... Then I saw that only the first one was directed to me....

So now I don't feel too bad. ....LOL


Hey Jacko!! Well as I'm sure you know, you can't have it ALL... not all the time anyway.

I do know that anytime my pips Get Away I always assume either you or James16 and his merry band of outlaws or Bemac and his "ICKY" bunch or my "good friend" Jaywalker or that slippery Cobra is pinching them and in that case I'll be very fortunate to ever see them again...

Then again, if you can Get 'em, you Deserve 'em... the reverse being true as well. ((Thanks for that lesson Bemac...))

My deepest Respect and Thanks to you sir, and the others of your cailber here that still believe that the investment of your time and energy at FF is time well spent. I know I'm the better for it...
FUBAR...
  • #162,207
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:16pm Nov 16, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting wwwin
I will wait for the RSI to go below 30 and cross up, that has been working like clockwork latety in pinpointing bottoms...but as they say...just as you know all the anwers, they change all the questions.

Are you are talking about the hourly, period 14?

Regarding RSI: Constance Brown, in her second book, writes about RSI studies. It basically highlights how RSI will stay in certain ranges when in a bull market and vice versa. For example, the daily RSI has been an AWESOME help in finding bottoms of retracements. At least six times the RSI bottomed at 45 and bounced (The latest one was a little trickier and stronger as it bottomed at 43.5). RSI studies were a great help in my analysis when I called for this bull market 6 months ago.

But I found out tonight that long term trading doesn't work. Bummer.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #162,208
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:20pm Nov 16, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Toshi

I think the question can best be answered by asking WHY you want see volume?

The brokerage then sells into that buying and then whip all of their buy orders out
after they have sold all the lots they intended. The buying market then collapses
and the brokers then start to close out their trades..
This is exactly what happens. Not a day goes by that I wont see a huge block of "phantom" bids under a rising market.
Suddenly, those bids evaporate and the market moves. Reason 1 as to why one might wish to see this, as it happens.

Quoting jacko
The second half of the answer is that I can see everything in the movement of price.
I don't need to look at other indicators for what is blatantly clear on the raw charts.
Okay, but can I see 500 mio bid or offered at a given price, followed by several hundred million at a given level,
and so on, if the market has not printed there yet (Even though these bids and offers also seem to "disappear" too often enough).
with only the price action of a chart ?

For example right now, the 14900 figure in EURO likely has several yards bid near that level
and when price reaches said number, raw charts would certainly indicate how well the volume is absorbed.
Untill the figure prints, what indication can be had about the potential size of such bids, if any ?
  • #162,209
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:20pm Nov 16, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting toshi
Better yet, what do you use to gauge volume ?
...for me and low tf E/U, its the CME S&P futures contract volumes...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #162,210
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:23pm Nov 16, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Are you are talking about the hourly, period 14?

Regarding RSI: Constance Brown, in her second book, writes about RSI studies. It basically highlights how RSI will stay in certain ranges when in a bull market and vice versa. For example, the daily RSI has been an AWESOME help in finding bottoms of retracements. At least six times the RSI bottomed at 45 and bounced (The latest one was a little trickier and stronger as it bottomed at 43.5). RSI studies were a great help in my analysis when I called for this bull market 6 months ago.

But I found...
yes, 1hr 14, but I also found out tonight that it is an optical illusion, it should only work on the 1m chart. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gifhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gif

PS. I set up an audible alarm for it...but if I go with the 1m chart, as suggested, I would not be able to sleep. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gif
  • #162,211
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:27pm Nov 16, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting The Fool
...for me and low tf E/U, its the CME S&P futures contract volumes...
When we say volume, are we referring to number of orders or their total value? There maybe few big orders or many small orders.

My understanding is the number of contracts refer to contracts of equal size. Will appreciate if someone clarifies if I am mistaken or correct.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #162,212
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:27pm Nov 16, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting ak4x


Hey Jacko!! Well as I'm sure you know, you can't have it ALL... not all the time anyway.

I do know that anytime my pips Get Away I always assume either you or James16 and his merry band of outlaws or Bemac and his "ICKY" bunch or my "good friend" Jaywalker or that slippery Cobra is pinching them and in that case I'll be very fortunate to ever see them again...

Then again, if you can Get 'em, you Deserve 'em... the reverse being true as well. ((Thanks for that lesson Bemac...))

My deepest Respect and Thanks to you sir,...
I trade on a monthly frame. I feel left out by that guy
Not all sins are created equal
  • #162,213
  • Edited 10:55pm Nov 16, 2009 10:28pm | Edited 10:55pm
Then it was the exact place to bounce and the short will be decided by small diamond in lower tf mostly should break down 133 pips below reaction low 1.4874, i,e,1.4741. A false break up as spike can't rulled out though .
wish Good trade for bears today.

closed shorts from top , 1.4973/93 again my breaking point.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #162,214
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:35pm Nov 16, 2009 10:35pm
Quoting toshi

For example right now, the 14900 figure in EURO likely has several yards bid near that level
and when price reaches said number, raw charts would certainly indicate how well the volume is absorbed.
Untill the figure prints, what indication can be had about the potential size of such bids, if any ?
When trying to figure out how big a tank is. I get a whole bunch of 5 gal. cans full of gas. I just keep pouring them in, till the tank is full and then see how many I have left. Unless I built the tank with a leak or forgot to put in the bung, will know exactly how big that ol' tank is...
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #162,215
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:35pm Nov 16, 2009 10:35pm
Quoting The Fool
...for me and low tf E/U, its the CME S&P futures contract volumes...
Once upon a time (like a year and a half ago) that's what I used as a proxy for the Pound/yen and Euro/yen.

More equity volume with a trending market would equal more risk volume in the carry pairs.
The two were like matching bookends.
These days, if gold, oil, stocks, bonds AND the US Dollar were all up at the same time (fat chance)
we would know something's wrong but it wouldn't be entirely impossible with the unwinding and de-coupling of late.
  • #162,216
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:39pm Nov 16, 2009 10:39pm
Quoting Chicky
When we say volume, are we referring to number of orders or their total value? There maybe few big orders or many small orders.

My understanding is the number of contracts refer to contracts of equal size. Will appreciate if someone clarifies if I am mistaken or correct.
In futures trade contract sizes are standardized, all the same size, volume just an aggregation thereof.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #162,217
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:50pm Nov 16, 2009 10:50pm
Quoting The Fool
In futures trade contract sizes are standardized, all the same size, volume just an aggregation thereof.
Thanks, and sorry for my ignorance. One more question I have been lately thinking about - this one relates to your other post.

Logically a pair should be designed to give 1.+++ value and its natural direction which is up.

For example in all commodities: commodity/denoting courrency that is why gold in ounce/USD, oil per barrel/USD, etc.

But when it comes to currency majors we have two different ways i.e. other currency/USD (eur/usd, aud/usd), but at the sametime we have pairs not denoted in reserve currency i.e. usd/chf, usd/jpy.

When euro was introduced it was below parity (if my understanding is correct), was it becuse we expected it to go above parity in the future. I think Great Britain was supposed to adopt euro after few years probably in 1998 but don't know what happened to that idea.

Now if denominator becomes numerator and numerator becomes denominator for all majors and crosses that show long term down trend, everything would point north unless there is a major permanent change in the value of any one currency in these pairs.

My question is what was the thought behind not making usd as common denominator for all majors? If there was any?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #162,218
  • Edited 11:02pm Nov 16, 2009 10:50pm | Edited 11:02pm
Quoting Artcritique
When trying to figure out how big a tank is. I get a whole bunch of 5 gal. cans full of gas.
I just keep pouring them in, till the tank is full and then see how many I have left.
Unless I built the tank with a leak or forgot to put in the bung, will know exactly how big that ol' tank is...
I was kind of wondering if he watches a price feed supplied by a large bank,
or maybe a reuters price feed ? Outside of working in a large brokerage
where you can see the order flows, it would be the next best thing.

After the price prints and the volume has traded, certainly we can look at a chart and see the effect.
But when DB has bids at 10.... UBS has bids at 12 and at 15...CS has size bid at the figure..... JPM is a buyer at 10 and so on
Why would I want to sell into that ? Further, why would I waste time placing a buy order under those bids ?
I'd have to buy between 15 and 20, if at all, else wait on the trade until the next pass.
Sometimes we don't get second and third chances..

Anyway, I appreciated the comment on Futures commission houses. They really do play with the volumes that way.
But, I think that's worth watching, just to see when they pull the plug. The thinner the market the more it applies.
CAD futures are often that way. At times, AUD and NZD futures get the same treatment.

One time I saw 8000 contracts offered in the Euro front month, about 1 billion euro.
That's pretty good size for the futures market. Price kept bumping up against it and it wouldn't budge.
It was about 3 in the afternoon newyork time. this went on for about 20 minutes and it got kinda funny even.
Finally it vanished and within half a minute the price spiked up 15 pips, then down 15 or 20 pips,
then went right back to where it was before the order. Crazy.....

Now, I for one think there's value in watching this, especially if you have an order pending.
A raw price chart is fine for the big picture, but this is something different.
  • #162,219
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:03pm Nov 16, 2009 11:03pm
Quoting Chicky
My question is what was the thought behind not making usd as common denominator for all majors? If there was any?
Well, honestly, Chicky, my knowledge along these lines is quite slim. I have only begun studying & thinking about currencies and macroeconomics & such within the last year. The position of the USD as the world's reserve currency dates back to the aftermath of WWII and Breton Woods, but this is history that can be easily googled. Or, if you can afford Amazon.com (or if it is in your local library) - I recommend "Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System" by Barry Eichengreen.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #162,220
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:09pm Nov 16, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting toshi
Now, I for one think there's value in watching this, especially if you have an order pending.
A raw price chart is fine for the big picture, but this is something different.
I do too, except I tried for a while, and it was kinda like trying to read chinese. Now I just look at volumes, after the fact, on the chart.

For anyone who is interested in futures volumes do check out the VSA thread here on FF. (VSA = Volume Spread Analysis) ...& there is also a really nice chunk of one on Traders Laboratory, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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