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  • #7,601
  • Edited 5:12pm Nov 12, 2009 4:58pm | Edited 5:12pm
As Alexandra said, many of the commodity pairs look very 'toppy' with double top bear flags a possibility on audusd and audjpy. nzdusd shows a LH from the peak and PA has closed below the up TL and SR level at 0.7457.

Be careful taking any counter trend trades here until any new trend is confirmed. After such a strong up trend I would expect any down move to be followed by a significant rally back up to try and test the trend extreme. Currently they are both still a buy as they are still going up (above MAs and TL), but I would be looking to short below the monthly nzdusd shooting star.

It would take a rather large stop though and would be outside my RR ratio, so it would be better in these situations to wait, as Nicola said, for the underside TL test and LH. As Strat alluded to, much better to wait for that 75% meat of the trend than lose money trying to pick tops and bottoms.

Example shows a trade from R to S from the first double top, but would be counter trend and not in line with our style. The hammer off SR and the TL on 13 Jul would have been a great with-trend entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_12_Nov_09.png Size: 101 KB
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,602
  • Nov 12, 2009 4:58pm Nov 12, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting strat
[b][i][color=blue][font=Arial]...

Thanks you Strat
  • #7,603
  • Nov 12, 2009 4:59pm Nov 12, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting strat
Looks good except "Pin Bars" (Ugh!) have nothing to do with this thread.

I didn't dwell on it but I'm not sure all your IB stuff is right - I'll take another look when I have more time.
Sure Strat.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

that was when we still were told to look at James16, so I gathered this might be of importance. At this stage of learning though it might be that we should skip the pinbars alltogether as per your instructions.

Thanks
Jideckhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #7,604
  • Nov 12, 2009 5:07pm Nov 12, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting Grimweasel
As Alexandra said, many of the commodity pairs look very 'toppy' with double top bear flags a possibility on audusd and audjpy. nzdusd shows a LH from the peak and PA has closed below the up TL and SR level at 0.7457.

Be careful taking any counter trend trades here until any new trend is confirmed. After such a strong up trend I would expect any down move to be followed by a significant rally back up to try and test the trend extreme. Currently they are both still a buy as they are still going up (above MAs and TL), but I would be looking to short...
Hi Grimweasel

Agreed on countertrades, unless one is eager to trade then on PA it might be a valid move. However taking trades with a trend is so much easier, stress less, waiting is a name of the game at this moment.

Good to read your posts.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Happy trading
Jideck
  • #7,605
  • Nov 12, 2009 5:12pm Nov 12, 2009 5:12pm
Quoting Jideck
Sure Strat.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

that was when we still were told to look at James16, so I gathered this might be of importance. At this stage of learning though it might be that we should skip the pinbars alltogether as per your instructions.

Thanks
Jideckhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Change the puppet bars (pin bars) to Hammer and Shooting Star and explain each one in detail.

No longer any need to go to J16, we have more than enough examples on here now.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,606
  • Edited 5:31pm Nov 12, 2009 5:16pm | Edited 5:31pm
OK so yesterday we cautioned a possible buy need in USDCHF. Someone step up and tell me why I am selling it (taking profit that is - not opening) tonight?
  • #7,607
  • Nov 12, 2009 6:49pm Nov 12, 2009 6:49pm
Hi All,

NZDJPY:

Big Boss has spoken.
Boss has acknowlege.
Worker has not received the order yet, still waiting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,608
  • Nov 12, 2009 6:52pm Nov 12, 2009 6:52pm
Hi Folks,

I just wanted to throw out a couple of charts that hold interest for me right now. The first one is my favorite trading vehicle, the GBP/JPY...I like her cause she does not fool around, she moves.
We are at a place where this pair has to do the proverbial "crap or get off the pot" in my opinion.

She has built a text book triangle on the worker. This triangle is completely symmetrical from both a classic trendline and a DSRI point of view. We have to be careful of shakeouts, but PA will tell us the real story here.

Check it out for yourself and see what you think. ( Oh, the reason I refer to this pair as 'her' is that I have been a Yen trader for over 10 years and this pair is like my mistress)
http://i36.tinypic.com/2a9wcbt.gif

The second chart of interest to me is the much talked about GBP/CHF....I think that from a pure DSRI standpoint all the action of the last couple of days is happening UNDER the broken demand line. See attached chart and make up your own mind...It also just so happens that all of this back and forth is happening at the .382 retracement of tha last leg down from the 180'ish high.

http://i33.tinypic.com/fmurgy.gif

Many pips to all and to all a good night
http://www.forexfactory.com/%5BIMG%5....gif%5B/IMG%5D
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #7,609
  • Nov 12, 2009 7:10pm Nov 12, 2009 7:10pm
Quoting Alexandra
OK so yesterday we cautioned a possible buy need in USDCHF. Someone step up and tell me why I am selling it (taking profit that is - not opening) tonight?

  1. Because 1.0175 ish is major resistance
  2. You were only doing a counter trend ATM trade up to the worker and resistance.
  3. It tagged supply DSRI
  4. 20 is below the 50 and price did not penetrate it
  5. Confluence of all of the above at today's open
  6. Lastly...it's still going down

close?

  • #7,610
  • Nov 12, 2009 7:57pm Nov 12, 2009 7:57pm
Greetings, Team

I am currently still reading early April, also reading up a little on proper SR line drawing re:BlackEagle's posts. Quick Question:

I am using a demo version MT4 charts from MB Trading... when trying to go back in history, not all my charts go back as far as others. Example, Aud/Usd Monthly goes back to Aug 1988, but weekly and daily only back to 1997 and 2007, respectively. My Euro pairs only go back as far as 1995, but without looking up history, I think this is only due to the Euro not being a currency for as long as individual countries have had their own (am I right?)
Should I be able to see back as far as the monthly goes when viewing my Weekly and Daily?, or is this due to the data taking up too much room for lower timeframe charts to go back that far without being memory hungry and less stable? I'm checking in, in case my charts still do not go back as far as they should to be able to draw effective SR lines and be current with the rest of the group when I finally catch up.

Thanks for Your Time,

Ez
  • #7,611
  • Nov 12, 2009 8:05pm Nov 12, 2009 8:05pm
Quoting EzRidr62
Greetings, Team

I am currently still reading early April,...
I have the same issue EZ, however, I have a version of FXPRO from almost 2 years ago and the data goes back much further than if I were to download it now. Dunno why.
  • #7,612
  • Nov 12, 2009 8:19pm Nov 12, 2009 8:19pm
Quoting Alexandra
OK so yesterday we cautioned a possible buy need in USDCHF. Someone step up and tell me why I am selling it (taking profit that is - not opening) tonight?
Here are few reasons I would sell:

1. Price is at resistance (Static).
2. Approaching the downtrend line.
3. Price hit the 20 EMA.
4. Price retraced 50% of the Nov 3rd-11th down swing.

Funnymentally (you are the best at this, right?) the SNB spoke today and price didn't move. Price had moved prior to the meeting.
  • #7,613
  • Nov 12, 2009 8:43pm Nov 12, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting strat
Err, what's a CB Nicola?
Central Bank ... like a country
  • #7,614
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:21pm Nov 12, 2009 9:21pm
Quoting strat
I realise that my request for information was less than clear and if you feel it was inappropriate, I apologise.

No need, ever.

Mike, from your posts, it is very obvious you are a methodical, logical and mechanical person. Definitely no gray areas for you!

[font=Arial]So, in short you are talking about a Trade Log or Trade Journal for tracking your trades. This is a PRIME COMPONENT along with a PLAN. These two go hand in hand together. One without the...


[font=Arial]Strat,

Once again, Thanks for your understanding. I could have wished that you hadn't talked to my wife about me - what a blabber! Couldn't keep a secret to save her life

Thanks for the pointer to the tools, I will check them out.

I must say that you have probably read me just about perfectly. Walking (not necessarily living or breathing) lack of imagination - or so my wife and kids tell me.

I am in the process of re-writing my Trading business-plan (template courtesy of T2W) to reflect the method that you are teaching here. I have also started putting the pieces together towards developing a more rule based (but not inflexible) "semi-mechanical trade plan". I have already embedded my money management parameters in my trade journal.

My initial preference is to insert stops manually but I'm also toying with the idea of inserting initial stops just in case I don't recover from my current level of stultification. I lean towards eventually being an all in, all out trailing stop trader, but will probably start off with a 3 lot approach until I really believe that I actually have an edge that I control and not vice versa.

I do want to start trading again, but I don't want to rush in unprepared You have raised a such a lot of (to me) new and interesting ideas, especially the ingeniously simple idea of changing Pip values using micro and mini lots to facilitate being able to suffer a larger than normal stop size, but not too large a value. I can and will wait until I truly understand all that you placed before us.

Thanks for putting up with all the nonsense and sticking with us. I'm sure that I would have continued wandering around in the wilderness had I not stumbled into your site.

Regards,

Mike
  • #7,615
  • Edited 11:30pm Nov 12, 2009 10:54pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting trogger
Duh.... go short?
I hope you didn't follow your own advice today or had a big SL.
Apparently you didn't read my reply.
  • #7,616
  • Nov 12, 2009 11:26pm Nov 12, 2009 11:26pm
By Swingtrader65 : ( Oh, the reason I refer to this pair as 'her' is that I have been a Yen trader for over 10 years and this pair is like my mistress)

Sorry, Swingtader65 I could not let your comment go unnoticed . A few quotes from my favorite quote-ress, Mae West:

" I like restraint, if it doesn't go too far."

" I'll try anything once, twice if I like it, three times to make sure. "

" When I'm good I'm very, very good, but when I'm bad, I'm better. "

There is of course trading advice hidden in each of these quotes.
  • #7,617
  • Nov 13, 2009 12:47am Nov 13, 2009 12:47am
Hi Strat/Guys,

As you guys know I am new to forex and learning. For PA , SR levels is the main concept and I want to make sure I am drawing correct SR levels.

I am attaching 5 charts with my newly created SR levels. please let me know if I am drawing them correctly

you input is highly appreciated

Thanks in advance
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_weekly.gif Size: 30 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_weekly.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_weekly.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #7,618
  • Edited 3:07am Nov 13, 2009 2:32am | Edited 3:07am
Guys, i've just read the post 405, with the merchent wanker and i've just made a connection

Maybe some of you are thinking that we are in 2009 and the big boys are not using MA and EMA anymore, that was in 97. Now they have something more powerful.

WRONG

After reading the post mentioned above, i've just remember that i read sometimes macro man's blog. Macro man is a portfolio manager at a medium-sized London macro hedge fund. Before he was an option trader and strategist and i think he worked for JP Morgan (unoficial sources).

Go to his blog to see his charts. You will be amazed by the simplicty of the charts: only trendlines, FIB's, SMA's (55, 100, 200) and volumes, that's all.

Strat, i hope that you don't mind that i've put the link, i was just trying to emphasize the power of MA's

Heavy metal!
  • #7,619
  • Edited 4:06am Nov 13, 2009 3:40am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting TheFutureAce
Hi Strat/Guys,

As you guys know I am new to forex and learning. For PA , SR levels is the main concept and I want to make sure I am drawing correct SR levels.

I am attaching 5 charts with my newly created SR levels. please let me know if I am drawing them correctly

you input is highly appreciated

Thanks in advance
Blackeagle's posts on SR lines I found to be the clearest guide to drawing SR lines. I think the easiest way to draw them is to use a line chart rather than candles. Using a line chart cuts out the noise around a candle and when you view the candle chart later you will find that the lines go pretty precisely along the close of the candles.

Use the weekly charts and pull out a long way - as you have done - to see where the major support and resistance lines should go. You can mark these with a fatter line than the later ones you put on when you look at the daily chart. If you like, when you first do them you can use different colours for those taken from the weekly chart and those taken from the daily.

Blackeagle and Strat advocate keeping the charts as clean as possible so try and avoid putting in lines for every minor SR level and also I recommend taking out the grid lines when you have finished. The more lines you have the more confusing it gets when you try and decide to place a trade and set target prices on SR levels. So stick to the more important ones or you hem yourself in to the point that you can't really move at all. Believe me it is so easy to do, to put in that just one extra SR line. Just make sure that the ones you have there are important ones - ones with lots of touches.

Remember that the lines are not precise, but small zones where price either stops or hesitates. These are the result of innumerable traders opening and closing trades because of their own beliefs about how price will react and will never be absolutely precise. The lines are our own construction to help us make decisions. Use them as guides.

Looking at your charts I think you probably have too many on there, so start with the Weekly SR levels and weed out all but the strongest (the ones with the most touches), then move to the Daily and tweek those and add anymore that you see as being important. Again, use line charts initially to draw the levels.

Good luck.
  • #7,620
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:02am Nov 13, 2009 4:02am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Blackeagle's posts on SR lines I found to be the clearest guide to drawing SR lines....
I couldn't write any better, thanks Lotus.

And Future, Lotus is right, you have too many lines. I am attaching my GBPUSD and EURGBP charts for you so that you can see what Lotus means. Re. EURGBP, I believe the data before 1999 is coming from Deutsche Mark, so I am ignoring that. Hope these two charts help you. If not, as always, ask.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-Weekly.jpg Size: 133 KB
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