Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 379 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #7,561
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:33am Nov 12, 2009 10:33am
Quoting elitejets
ME. It's not confirmed yet of course but its a great level and I think the R:R is worth it.
Plus its the only pair / direction where a CB might help you.
See my earlier post - for me its still trapped the same way as USDJPY

Err, what's a CB Nicola?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,562
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:42am Nov 12, 2009 10:42am
[quote=elitejets;3226737]
Quoting golfer27

I highlighted (not very well) the weekly inside bar I mentioned. I note the open and close prices of weekly bars because the market seems to respect them. If you weren't sure of your trendline / DSRI line break then a break of a weekly inside bar is an easy to understand level.

If I am wrong perhaps Strat will chip in.
I note the open and close prices of weekly bars because the market seems to respect them. If you weren't sure of your trendline / DSRI line break then a break of a weekly inside bar is an easy to understand level.

Trading off Weekly levels is a very successful strategy and is used by many traders. It is also in my portfolio of methods/strategies.

There is conflict between the BIG BOSS and BOSS so for me, I’m OUT!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,563
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:51am Nov 12, 2009 10:51am
Quoting elitejets
This is for mstandifer too ...

For me on most pairs, if I don't have an order below and catch the break then I stay out. I have lost a lot chasing the markets before
Thats the reason I often use trendlines at the extremes of range and not the DSRI lines, I don't like being faked out.
Quite often a trendline break will get retested and you can get in then. If it doesn't then you have to wait for the next one.
Nicola, along with Blackeagle, are the best TL traders on this thread.

Having said that, we need to focus on basics which is trading REAL price reversal candles from support up to 1st resistance and resistance down to 1st support.

TL break is another strategy we will cover LATER.

If you are learning and you try to trade everything going, you will end up being confused. Confused traders ALWAYS LOSE. You will become a Jerk of all trades and a Mistress of none.

Focus on basic PASR and master that FIRST. That alone will provide generous income for most of you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,564
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:53am Nov 12, 2009 10:53am
Quoting Donadoney
At the moment. The risk to me is that the Aussie and Euro trends seem as though they have resumed. Unless their pace is abated in the near future I would not take any risks against the current downtrend of the US dollar. As Elitejets said, it is not confirmed.
Make sure you read and UNDERSTOOD my post on USDCHF
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,565
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:57am Nov 12, 2009 10:57am
Quoting strat
I'am looking to go short after today's BEOB.

W/trend,fib retrace,closed below 20 on the worker, DSRI break, All the bosses are in agreement, 20 and 50 are touching on both boss and worker TF's....
I actually didn't get triggered on my sell order for this one. I had my sell below all the recent tests of 1.6700 @ 1.6650 so i am safe on this one.

I did see the BB hammer but it looked feeble at the least, and i was basing my trend directions on the overall down trend we are in.

Something i have been noticing more after you mentioned it though is the impulse and corrective candles. Now i am not trying to relate it to EW at all but i think it can help when looking at a chart to help us see more clearly who is in control. Now looking back at the boss chart you can tell just buy looking at the candles who is in charge.

I did manage to get dragged into EUR/GBP though at .9060 feeling a little pain there but my plan has been thought out and i plan on following it, so no worries.

Any comments on it would be appreciated though.

IDK all in all i still think it had a good chance, a stronger close would have sure helped though.


Thanks Strat
  • #7,566
  • Nov 12, 2009 11:12am Nov 12, 2009 11:12am
Quoting mstandifer
I don't see too many live trade posts here probably because this is a Q&A type thread but I need to post my live trades for accountability's sake....
I don't see too many live trade posts here probably because this is a Q&A type thread but I need to post my live trades for accountability's sake. I believe in showing my trades either before I make them or as I make them, no way to lie about getting in a trade after the fact just to make myself look good and thus lying to myself. I'm here to learn and this is how I need to do it.

I'm hanging it out for all to see before hand and we can all hopefully learn from my successes and failures...here we go.

No problem with this at all, students of this thread are encouraged to do this, as long as you don’t post pip counts.

By not allowing those with egos and vivid imaginations to post “after the fact” trades and their “pip haul”, we keep this thread in the land of sensibility and reality.

From studying the various threads on FF and other forums, the pattern of those posting pip counts is very obvious to me. Simply, when you are used to making pips, it becomes an “everyday”, “matter of fact”, “routine” occurrence and there is no need to “boast” about such things. However, if you live in the land of “wannabe called a trader” or are fuelled by a vivid imagination, or are on a pip counting thread, you will post imaginary pip counts of “after the fact” trades to inflate your ego and prove your superiority to your fellow trader.

As you intimated, this is a Professional Education thread for teaching those who want to be taught successful and profitable trading.

From the posts I see on this thread, I don’t think we have students who are lying to themselves or us and the first time I sense that, they will get both barrels, the bat and the hat!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,567
  • Nov 12, 2009 11:18am Nov 12, 2009 11:18am
Quoting strat
See my earlier post - for me its still trapped the same way as USDJPY

Err, what's a CB Nicola?

CB .... Central Bank.......SNB.....probably in the market, but maybe not the driving force. nevertheless, buy stops in that one were the proper short term call (for protection or for a quick pop), as noted yesterday.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #7,568
  • Nov 12, 2009 11:22am Nov 12, 2009 11:22am
Quoting Alexandra
CB .... Central Bank.......SNB.....probably in the market, but maybe not the driving force. nevertheless, buy stops in that one were the proper short term call (for protection or for a quick pop), as noted yesterday.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

And here's me thinking Cold Beer or Cold Bath!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,569
  • Nov 12, 2009 12:30pm Nov 12, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting PistolDave
Strat, I'm still around. Have not dropped out. For the last few weeks I was going back and looking for shooting stars and hammers and PASR on past charts. With some days on the thread getting 70-80 posts I fell way behind. I'm caught up now. Nice to see more new traders joining. Even a few that want to argue. That's OK.

I appreciate your explanation today of the hammer on the Big Boss USDCAD chart. I'm understanding now that you have to wait for the Big Boss, then the Boss to show you that the trend has changed direction before anything else....
In other words, until there is a real confirmation on the larger timeframes that the trend has become bullish we would still be looking to go short on the worker and not assume the bearish trend has ended. Is that correct?

Sort of ! The Hammer on the BIG BOSS is THE controlling bar meaning that all lower time frames can whiz up and down within that range to their heart’s content. Until that Hammer no longer becomes the controlling bar ( High or Low taken out), we follow the BOSS. We then follow the Worker with trades in line with the BOSS.

Now remember, this is a 754 pip range Hammer meaning that the BOSS can get to the bottom of the Hammer and take off North again, WITHIN the range of the Hammer. The Worker will turn first giving us a trade in line with the BOSS but against the current trend.

The 754 pip Hammer range is a big range so you can see that the Worker and BOSS can each go into their own 754 pip range without changing anything.

A simpler analogy is consider the BIG BOSS as the Chairman of your favourite football (the game you kick the ball with your FOOT!) team, the BOSS as the Manager and the Worker as the 11 players.

The Chairman is at the game and sees his team losing 1-0 so he tells the Manager he has had enough losing and to go out and win this game. The Manager tells the players the Chairman has spoken and they have to win this game.

Easier said than done for the players as there are another 11 players trying to do the same thing! They try their best and get the score to 1-1. The Manager calls for more and they make it 2-1. The other team don’t like that and make it 2-2.

I could go on with but hopefully you see the likeness with all the different variables.

The Chairman can shout and scream all he wants but, on the pitch, its down to the Manager and 11 players.

With your experience you may think everyone would get it, but even the basics aren't too obvious to a beginner like myself.

Point taken and I probably do take too much for granted. Since my only purpose is to help, if I haven’t helped let me know at any time what you’re having problems with and I will try to explain it better.

I said some time back, trying to guess (wrongly) when the trend has ended has been one of my biggest errors. But I'm learning to correct some of my trading weaknesses like that.

You are not alone in this. I originally thought it was more a problem with us baby boomers but maybe it’s just a natural human reaction – if it’s too good to be true then it probably is, good things don’t last forever, stock market crashes, bubbles bursting – all these external influences play havoc with what?

The 95% that does the damage!

Trading tops and bottoms is best left to the handful of traders who do it best. I don’t.

We need to know when the chances of a top or bottom are likely for TP purposes but NOT for out and out trading. We need to recognize when a top and bottom has been made and trade the next swings out. The richest and safest “meat” is in 75% of the trend. The problem is in recognizing that 75%. We need to accept we WILL get it wrong at the top and bottom turning points but losing is part of winning and is all about trading. Just take the loss on the chin, don’t grieve over it and MOVE ON!

Most new, inexperienced and losing traders have their trading upside down and inside out when it comes to tops and bottoms. They believe the trend HAS to end and are constantly looking for signs that it is ending. They then trade every sign they are given because it matches their “belief” system.

To get out of this, you have to turn your “belief” system upside down and inside out. Believe that the trend WILL go on, Believe that there is NO end.

I created my Dr. Joe strategy to help me with this. It keeps on going up until it stops going up!

It’s also interesting to note, that although he doesn’t say it in his works, W.D. Gann practiced this and in fact, developed his own little strategy to keep him in the trend. Dow was also a big proponent of this. Unfortunately, R.N. Elliott screwed the whole thing up with his waves.

If we keep buying the dips on every uptrend, we will only be wrong once.

A long time back, I did an exercise of comparing this to trend trades I had already made. Despite counter trend trading, it was far more profitable to sit through the dip and add. Even more profitable than TP at the “top” and get back in the dip.

I cannot over emphasise this:

IT KEEPS ON GOING UP UNTIL IT STOPS GOING UP

Similarly:

IT KEEPS ON GOING DOWN UNTIL IT STOPS GOING DOWN

We just have to be a little more aware and careful with down trends due to the fact of inertia and momentum created by gravity. ( a ball rolling down hill).

They are psychological errors too, because it's the fear of missing out on the beginning of the move, and the fear of increased risk of getting in after price has moved too far, etc. that make me want to pick these tops and bottoms. I need to be more patient and wait for the trend to make itself clear before looking for setups - and then trade with the trend. I also need to make myself believe that the trend will continue (possibly for a long time) until it has proven to have ended.

This is the 95% that does the financial damage. In earlier posts I have laid out how to work and manage this.

Again, most traders have their thinking upside down and inside out about trading. They think technicals and entries and exits are the be all and end all in trading. This is ONLY the 5% part. They spend 100% of their time on the 5% and NONE on the 95% that does the damage.

Accept that you NEED to CONTROL your emotions and you will be one step further on The Path. Then set about CONTROLLING those emotions.

Along with what I posted earlier, you have to have CONFIDENCE in YOU and YOUR methodology/system/strategy. If you didn’t watch that Mark Douglas video, WATCH IT and WATCH IT AGAIN. When you have a proven method that works, PASR, learn it until you can do it standing on your head on the Eiffel Tower with your eyes shut THEN, when you SEE an OPPORTUNITY, trade it. Don’t question it, trade it. As long as you make sure your losers are smaller than your winners, The Law of Averages and Probabilities will always make you profitable.

Also, when you get the time, will you explain more about "seeing beyond the candles"?

I will do a separate post on this.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,570
  • Nov 12, 2009 12:41pm Nov 12, 2009 12:41pm
I pmed strat about this :
Hi Strat,

I am sorry i created whole drama today by saying I knew. 1qq I had tough, you can tell me or u can tell me to figure out on my own.

this question is about the hanging man i was talking about.

it was a nice hanging man.
it was right at the major resistance of 6600.

what else did i miss in reading this chart? I am just curios as its bugging me from morning.

thanks in advance

he told me to put in the thread so other can benifit from the answer

Thanks strat
  • #7,571
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:21pm Nov 12, 2009 1:21pm
Now I know I should be able to answer this question, and I suppose the mere fact that I am posting it as a problem suggests an answer - Don't trade yet.

BUT BBoss is clearly on an UP
Boss is also on the UP with HH and HLs BUT now has a shooting star which is nearly at R level.
Daily is a big long shooting star (if that isn't a contradiction) with its current close at R level.

The chart has made a double top. Beneath the D candle - a BEOB - is the DSRI line (have I drawn that correctly? I'm still a bit hazy on DSRIs!) and under that is the TL. Retraces continually go to the TL before a SL.

The 20 MA is running along the TL.

A drop to the DSRI line would not give a reasonable R:R, but a fall to the TL would be feasible. In the light of Strat's post about movement within the range of the BBoss candle, the trade would be a much better one if the fall is to the bottom of the BBoss candle which is currently signified by the 50MA on the Daily.

I just don't know what to do about this one. In which case I should WAIT I suppose, but a good trade might be lost that way.

Advice would be appreciated, digested, and generally absorbed into the visceral processes which are, I hope, leading me towards being a better trader!

NOTE, that means just what it says. It does not necessarily mean advice will be followed. It will be taken on board!

But it will be appreciated!!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.m.12.11.2009.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.w.12.11.2009.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.d.12.11.2009.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,572
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:24pm Nov 12, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting PistolDave
Also, when you get the time, will you explain more about "seeing beyond the candles"?

Dave
I don’t want to go into detail on this just yet, apart from explain the progression on The Path for this.

The very first thing we have to do is learn basic PASR. This involves learning and UNDERSTANDING exactly what PASR is.

We then have to learn how to IDENTIFY accurate SR levels to SUIT our particular trading style.

We then have to learn the basic price reversal candles – Hammer, Shooting Star, BUOB, BUEB, BEOB and BEEB, nothing else. At this point we have to learn the classical definitions of these candles. Do NOT think about or study other candles or patterns as they are NOT reliable and/or consistent for PASR trading.

We then put this all together to do SIMPLE yet very profitable trading:

Trade from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support.

At this stage, you would “paper” trade or demo trade to exercise the technical content i.e., make sure your understanding of basic PASR is correct.

Doing this will bring up many doubts on SR levels and candle types etc. This is part of learning and a stage where every doubt and question must be resolved. How long this takes is up to the individual but there is NO time constraint – you learn within your own time frame.

When you have a very high success rate of doing this, you move in to REAL trading. You open an account with REAL money and trade the smallest lot size your broker offers.

This will OPEN a whole new world of “little men in your head”, “the man in the mirror” and “gremlins and demons” in you. You will learn the importance of a believed, trusted and accepted PLAN. You will go through grief and pain UNTIL you learn to CONTROL your emotions.

Again, how long it takes to master and control your emotions is up to the individual. You will continue to trade until you get to the point that you feel you can “walk on water”. Despite anything written on here, you will go through this emotion and do it. After you have been eaten up, chewed and spat out in little pieces you will learn that you are NEVER in CONTROL of your emotions and you ALWAYS have to be ON GUARD.

As you continue to trade in this manner, things that were difficult to see will become clearer and more obvious.

We will move from trading classical candle shapes, sizes and patterns to “SEEING” who and what is behind the candles, groups of candles, waves of candles etc.

We will learn to recognize market behaviour by eyeballing a chart rather than in depth analysis of a chart.

In short, we will be developing our “feel” for the market. This is a very, very personal attribute. Some get it early, for some it seems to take forever while for others, they NEVER get it.

At this point, we move into other strategies and techniques.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,573
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:42pm Nov 12, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting mawbvw@hotma
Strat,

I’m afraid I was so caught up in trying to prepare for a future where, when I feel able to start to trade again, that I have put in place everything that I will need to remove any of the "me specific" inadequacies. I realise that my request for information was less than clear and if you feel it was inappropriate, I apologise.

[size=3][font=Calibri]If I have taken anything from your thread, it is that I have to aim for consistency. If I have learned anything from Mark Douglas, it is that the trade system...
I realise that my request for information was less than clear and if you feel it was inappropriate, I apologise.

No need, ever.

Mike, from your posts, it is very obvious you are a methodical, logical and mechanical person. Definitely no gray areas for you!

So, in short you are talking about a Trade Log or Trade Journal for tracking your trades. This is a PRIME COMPONENT along with a PLAN. These two go hand in hand together. One without the other is useless. For some reason I want to mention Dolly Parton here although why……Oh yes, last nights CMA – Ugh!

Anyway, in the Members’ section is the Master Trade Journal provided by AstonDan so take a butcher’s at that. Danny boy (Grimweasel) has also posted one in the thread. You can use these or any others as a template to make your own unique Log.

I still do mine by hand but I have made my own template.

I will bet the clothes in your closet and the tools in your garage are all nicely laid out by size and colour code eh?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,574
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:44pm Nov 12, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting strat
I don’t want to go into detail on this just yet, apart from explain the progression on The Path for this.

The very first thing we have to do is learn basic PASR. This involves learning and UNDERSTANDING exactly what PASR is.

We then have to learn how to IDENTIFY accurate SR levels to SUIT our particular trading style.

[font=Arial]We then have to learn the basic price reversal candles – Hammer, Shooting Star, BUOB, BUEB, BEOB and BEEB, nothing else....
Hi Strat - Iwas just passing by and I noticed this post - I've copied it for my "Axioms of a Trader" file - I hope you dont mind

Regards

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,575
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:46pm Nov 12, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting soso
Hello Strat and all,

Regarding your USDCAD chart, this is my plan of action (better said plan of waiting...).

While the Hammer on BB is an early warning signal the BOSS trend is still down. My trend change signals are the high of your Monthly hammer and a bit earlier the last swing high of the BOSS (at 1.0865). As long as none of these highs are broken the BOSS trend is still down.

Going down on Worker the downtrend resumed off the 11.02 high and we have a confrmed LL (11.04) and LH (11.06).

The plan is to wait for bearish PA on Worker at...
Good overall PLAN but your trade PLAN will be much more specific and detailed.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,576
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:50pm Nov 12, 2009 1:50pm
Quoting strat
I don’t want to go into detail on this just yet, apart from explain the progression on The Path for this.
In my reading of the entire thread, I've gleaned the bits an pieces of what we are supposed to learn and when we should be learning them, but apart from the index I haven't seen anything this concise and in a particular order of importance with examples like this.

Perhaps this could be put in the Index close to the top?

Because this thread has gotten so large and there is so much to learn from it, I have a tendency to loose sight of the fact that the basics come first and what exactly those basics are. This post would be of tremendous value to those still at the beginning, such as myself.

This post was a good reminder for me to scale back a bit and get the basic stuff down first. More good stuff. Please keep them coming.
-m
  • #7,577
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:52pm Nov 12, 2009 1:52pm
Quoting jag1966
Strat you said "The sellers are now in control UNTIL the ROOT DSRI demand line at 1.4625ish."

It hit 1.4626 on my charts, truly amazing.

Sorry I had to mention that.
This is not the first time and it won't be the last time AND I am not the only one doing this. When you really understand PASR, you will be able to do it too.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,578
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:55pm Nov 12, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting Islander
Hi Strat - Iwas just passing by and I noticed this post - I've copied it for my "Axioms of a Trader" file - I hope you dont mind

Regards

Islander
No, I don't mind at all except if you publish it or copy it elsewhere, just give credit to myself and my thread. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,579
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:09pm Nov 12, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting mstandifer
In my reading of the entire thread, I've gleaned the bits an pieces of what we are supposed to learn and when we should be learning them, but apart from the index I haven't seen anything this concise and in a particular order of importance with examples like this.

Perhaps this could be put in the Index close to the top?

Because this thread has gotten so large and there is so much to learn from it, I have a tendency to loose sight of the fact that the basics come first and what exactly those basics are....
After I wrote this, I realised I hadn't done this before and thought the same as you. Another taking things for granted thing. Since others will think along the same lines, I have now put this post on the 1st Page. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,580
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:13pm Nov 12, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting mstandifer
I realize this isn't end of day but I have to post when I can fit it in....
While I applaud your efforts, I'm not really sure this will help you. You seem to be wanting to trade anything that moves.

I thought you agreed that you need to go back to basics and ONLY trade from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support using basic PASR and nothing else.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
5 traders viewing now