EURUSD

thats all I ever do but manage to hang on every now and then for a big move. I got a decent slice of the drop today based on yesterdays daily candles and the 4 hour trendline break. It was pretty clear we were in for a drop comming into the session

There are a list of reasons.
Fundamentally, real money is working 150 spot.
Not punters, but multi billion dollar banks. Real hedging, real aquisitions.
True purpose of the foreign exchange market is playing out this week.
Governments are working this figure too. It's political.
If they aren't done with it yet, it won't go anywhere.
Atlest no too far away, so as to remain within striking range.
When they get up from the table, then we can move.

Technically, same kind of thing.

If this is a consolidation, prior to a decent size move, we can bounce around here for a while.
Stops are near 4920. Massive stops likely under 149. We didn't hit those yet.
Market was testing just to see if we could break 4950 - and we did.
The market is seting up. All kinds of patterns are forming.
If you squint your eyes, you can probably invision any pattern you please.
I see atleast 3 or 4 good ones, all interlaced within each other and I'm not even squinting.

And there are other reasons, but I'll give one more:

With a little selling having played, some are expecting a good move down.
If it comes, I'd like to think it will come to us before Friday.
Depending on how "expected" an event is, the less likely it will play out "as expected".

Oh, and 99th on the list (very near the bottom), don't forget the "Boo-Boo".
That quirky issue could have a shelf life from as little as 6 hours to as long as 6 months.
I wouldn't trade behind that one by itself, only with many other things stacked with it,
but there are some who consider this as well.

Fish,

Where's your average sell (if I may ask) ?

I think the week could still leave you with a smile by weekend if you overall avg is not too far from here.



BTW: "the emotional message of toshi ?" Man, it's starting to sound like one of the gospels that they forgot to include.

Mark, Luke and Toshi. To that I'd say, " Holy Toledo !"

Never know...maybe the finger is pointing at you

It's 5035. I performed three sells: 4985 then 5000 and closed 4985 on retrace and yesterday 5035 and closed 5000 on retrace. So I am on a short position from 5035. I got another pending at 5065 or so and if it breaks up of that by more than 20 pips I'm out of the trade. But for now I'm smiling .

You know you read on Bloomberg, and CNBC, and Reuters, and BBC and a host of others how the economy is gaining strength, and that the dollar is very weak etc etc. But looking at the charts, the charts tell another story. Looking at a monthly eu chart, it clearly shows that even after the big drop last year around this same time, the dollar never really got strong. Not when you consider where it was about 6 to 8 years ago. now my question to the talking heads is this. How is it that companies that are only reporting better than expected losses, and not real bottom line profits, are pushing these markets to the levels that they are? EU is over 3 quarters of it's highest record to date, not even a whole year after the financial crisis that hit wall st. something fishy here for sure!

Only the fickle finger of fate, my friend.

Hey!

hehe thats funny but i will going to long EURUSD.

Regards

Sorry Fish Lol

Then, I'd break out the ultra brite toothpaste. I'd hold that one until proven otherwise.
In fact, I had that trade yesterday around the time Driver55 was selling 5032.
Stop was moved to BE +5 and just like clockwork, ran up gave me 5 and turned around and went lower.

C'est la vie.

I really would like to short this one from around 1.4980-1.5000


Reckon jobless in 2 hours will be positive with 498k for USD. Looking at previous results/mistakes and by drawing a line 498 makes sense...

Bon voyage !

I'm sorry guys, being a noob maybe I should still sit and learn, but now I am really pissed...
how come all week everybody was yelling 1.506 and now "oh it was clear we are going to 1.490" or something?
you have a wonderful forum here, but I think I will pack my bags and close my forex account while I still have some money in it.

Find one mistake...
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...9-ca86dcbe1117

I know they didn't say 1.65 area?

haha, they swapped it!
did you see that?

that just proves how much attention too details they have... Zer0

well I feel for all guys who were calling 1.52+ yesterday. It was way overbought on the shorter-medium TFs and abutting huge resistance at 44 so I was a tad mystified why there was so much bullishness around. No doubt 5200 will be seen in the near future, but I expect it to touch the daily LTL first.

This was you yesterday. Price was 15037

If you didn't assert that you're always wrong, I think more people would listen .

Poor bastards, the whole lot of us...

This consolidation is scary . Is it wise to set up a straddle as the breakout could be strong in one direction? (my bias is down though)

If price doesn't drop, what else can it do ? Bounce around like a rubber ball.

Put it this way, if a drop is coming, selling strength will be much easier than
trying to run for the crowded exits on a break of 14920 and 14900.