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  • #160,321
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:09pm Nov 10, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
10 yr bond auction...hang on...

2.81% yadda yadda 4.5%

It is always a slow trickle down effect on EU, the importance is though that the trend of seeing USD as a cheap vehicle to finance other investments continues. An oversubscription also shows a level of conficence in the US economy versus the rest of the world. The last auction in the UK was a struggle to get filled.
  • #160,322
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:12pm Nov 10, 2009 12:12pm
Fed Res Governor Tarullo is set to speak at 3:30pm on banking reform and resolution authority.
  • #160,323
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:15pm Nov 10, 2009 12:15pm
Though the future trend is up, but at the moment it is clearly trapped in bearish zone and might test 1.49 levels during asia session.
  • #160,324
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:16pm Nov 10, 2009 12:16pm
UST10Y showing as 3.46% oversold 2.8 times. The auction drove the price down slightly, (Yield moves inversely to price) could see a downward correction on yields, if not this auction will not break the EU range we are in now.

Enough of Fundi's for one day back to the charts....
  • #160,325
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:17pm Nov 10, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting cloggie
It is always a slow trickle down effect on EU, the importance is though that the trend of seeing USD as a cheap vehicle to finance other investments continues. An oversubscription also shows a level of conficence in the US economy versus the rest of the world. The last auction in the UK was a struggle to get filled.
sure usd lost 15% on usx and yet china and japan still buy... so they make a net of less then -10%. they buy to lose money?????.. on the other hand if they know something we dont know.... and usx comes back.... if we go back to jan levels they make 15% take away the (antisipated loss if usd continues current track in a year.) loss thats 30% plus they other little interest u.s. pays..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #160,326
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:17pm Nov 10, 2009 12:17pm
Too many mixed signals in the market today. Waiting to see if that H4 TL gets penetrated before I commit, but yield curves seem to indicate a lower bias. Risk reversals on the other hand are still extremely negative...
  • #160,327
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:19pm Nov 10, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
sure usd lost 15% on usx and yet china and japan still buy... so they make a net of less then -10%. they buy to lose money..
They have to to keep their own investments safe
  • #160,328
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:28pm Nov 10, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting cloggie
They have to to keep their own investments safe
Exactly. A failed auction would be disasterous. It is a really interesting conundrum. If they don't buy more, what they own could lose 25% of it's value really really quick. If they continue to buy, how much exposure to potential risk is there? If my forecasts come to fruition, the Chinese and all US debt holders will not be pleased at all. Of course, the Chinese are really hedged. They own how much copper, oil, zinc, platinum and grain? Not many know for sure, but I venture to say it is a monster sized horde. In essence, they are a trillion dollar hedge fund.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #160,329
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:28pm Nov 10, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting Protogenos
Too many mixed signals in the market today. Waiting to see if that H4 TL gets penetrated before I commit, but yield curves seem to indicate a lower bias. Risk reversals on the other hand are still extremely negative...
...
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  • #160,330
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:32pm Nov 10, 2009 12:32pm
retrace to 1.50 area
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  • #160,331
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:33pm Nov 10, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Exactly....

It is indeed a massive struggle between the US wanting to keep the USD down and the Chinese wanting a return on their investments. The big question is are the Chinese willing to keep the USD down so further purchases of Gov't paper are cheaper and allowing the US to recover so when their papers mature the USD will have rebounded? The added benefit for the Chinese is that the EUR is going up because of this they can collect more on their exports. Also commodities are priced in USD, becoming cheaper. In effect the Chinese are hedged by virtue of the EUR-USD value.
  • #160,332
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:37pm Nov 10, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting jiva34
retrace to 1.50 area
Well I hope so...seems the safest bet for me today is to fade the rallies. Only had one trade so far today, but it was fading that morning rally. TP before H4 TL though...
  • #160,333
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:38pm Nov 10, 2009 12:38pm
today realy was not a technical day that was bigplayer day .however
on H1 chart this bearish DV make a selling sence! with tight SL
pending sell 1.4972 SL 1.4985
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  • #160,334
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:44pm Nov 10, 2009 12:44pm
i am so confused...pls advise me. down wit alot of pips already...wat exactly is going on with US economy? i think EU should be rallying? so y all dis
  • #160,335
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:48pm Nov 10, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting cloggie
It is indeed a massive struggle between the US wanting to keep the USD down and the Chinese wanting a return on their investments. The big question is are the Chinese willing to keep the USD down so further purchases of Gov't paper are cheaper and allowing the US to recover so when their papers mature the USD will have rebounded? The added benefit for the Chinese is that the EUR is going up because of this they can collect more on their exports. Also commodities are priced in USD, becoming cheaper. In effect the Chinese are hedged by virtue of the...
its a train wreck for china. they pegged their money to usd.. as usd goes down so does theirs... so now they sell ccc (cheap chinese crap) at a loss cause all the commoditys are costing more and what they sell is cheaper. this cant last forever. china could be toast... they are showing cracks already.. they had stopped theit stimulis then restarted it a couple of months ago. because unemployment. they also raised fuel prices because they were losing money... think about it... Cat laid off... your not in kansas anymore.. china is lying. this could go either way still.....we aint out the woods... u.s. jobs will further hurt china
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #160,336
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm
short is safe for now
  • #160,337
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting brighty3k
i am so confused...pls advise me. down wit alot of pips already...wat exactly is going on with US economy? i think EU should be rallying? so y all dis
Never confuse , see your chart & follow strategy . most pairs may long for some good pips .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #160,338
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
its a train wreck for china. they pegged their money to usd.. as usd goes down so does theirs... so now they sell ccc (cheap chinese crap) at a loss cause all the commoditys are costing more and what they sell is cheaper. this cant last forever. china could be toast... they are showing cracks already.. they had stopped theit stimulis then restarted it a couple of months ago. because unemployment. they also raised fuel prices because they were losing money... think about it... Cat laid off... your not in kansas anymore.. china is lying
All the talk, Chinese economy not pegged so much to exports as in the past, middle class Chinese consumer taking over to drive their economy..
  • #160,339
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm
Oil tumbling EU should be next
  • #160,340
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm Nov 10, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting brighty3k
i am so confused...pls advise me. down wit alot of pips already...wat exactly is going on with US economy? i think EU should be rallying? so y all dis

Try technical analysis instead of fundamental.
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