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  • #159,681
  • Nov 8, 2009 11:46am Nov 8, 2009 11:46am
These are my S & R zones for cable and fiber:

Fiber H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My take: We see a drop to 1.4791 Tokyo, London Session, and then back up to 1.4863 NY session ....

Cable H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable h4 7th.gif Size: 27 KB


We have a trend-line here ...
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #159,682
  • Nov 8, 2009 11:59am Nov 8, 2009 11:59am
Fiber:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber daily7th.gif Size: 25 KB


Cable:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable daily7th.gif Size: 27 KB
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #159,683
  • Nov 8, 2009 12:40pm Nov 8, 2009 12:40pm
Still held onto longs last week, getting nice prints now, can we gap to 1.5 please forex gods!!!!
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #159,684
  • Nov 8, 2009 12:53pm Nov 8, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting sophiaphia
Still held onto longs last week, getting nice prints now, can we gap to 1.5 please forex gods!!!!
Yes we can
-Obama-
  • #159,685
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:20pm Nov 8, 2009 1:20pm
Wow! 50 pips up on Oanda platform! Ladies and gentlemen this week end we may have a gap. Shorts will cry, longs will laugh. I'm not decided yet: closed my long on friday to protect myself from week-end events. Nice going Fisherman. Some protection you got. Protection from profit that is.

[EDIT] So yet the market found a way to fk all traders after the mess on friday. Darn. Let's see if we can re-enter at gap close...
  • #159,686
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:31pm Nov 8, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Wow! 50 pips up on Oanda platform! Ladies and gentleman this week end we may have a gap. Shorts will cry, longs will laugh. I'm not decided yet: closed my long on friday to protect myself from week-end events. Nice going Fisherman. Some protection you got. Protection from profit that is.
Just confirmed it right now!

This must be one of the biggest weekend gaps I have ever seen for quite a while!

Glad I have longs more than shorts (good hedging strategy).

I wonder however, what will happen if my long targets are below that level? Will they automatically be hit when the markets open tonight?

What about my buy stop pending orders. I guess the price had jumped over them. Better cancel them asap! I suppose the next move will probably be a short order as there would be many short limit orders that could drag the price down again!
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  • #159,687
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:36pm Nov 8, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting investor_me
Just confirmed it right now!

This must be one of the biggest weekend gaps I have ever seen for quite a while!

Glad I have longs more than shorts (good hedging strategy).

I wonder however, what will happen if my long targets are below that level? Will they automatically be hit when the markets open tonight?

What about my buy stop pending orders. I guess the price had jumped over them. Better cancel them asap! I suppose the next move will probably be a short order as there would be many short limit orders that could drag the price...
Depend on your broker. I use a ECN which does not gurantee stops hence leaving orders open on friday is risky-risky. If you have a broker that ensures your limits are executed over the week-end gap you should be ok.

If your broker is closed you can't cancel orders. Other brokers will trigger you stop during the gap and quote you the price at opening (dirty bastards).

[EDIT] And indeed it is quite a gap. Actually this rate should have been seen friday at close time but probably the world is full of chicken like myself and closing of positions on friday took the cake out of many traders.
  • #159,688
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:38pm Nov 8, 2009 1:38pm
Sometimes Oanda quotes retrace to almost start before everybody else opens up shop so no week-end gap is seen. I'm eagerly waiting for the gap fill either before or after opening bell.
  • #159,689
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:45pm Nov 8, 2009 1:45pm
FXCM 1.4896 EU top. Actually 1.4880. I have no trade open for this week-end. I did not prepare a plan on friday, but yesterday i did on which i'm expecting 1.5020 and continuous up move up to 1.5300. I will go long, just when i'll see a good entry point.

Good trading for all.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #159,690
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:00pm Nov 8, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting No Stress
FXCM 1.4896 EU top. Actually 1.4880. I have no trade open for this week-end. I did not prepare a plan on friday, but yesterday i did on which i'm expecting 1.5020 and continuous up move up to 1.5300. I will go long, just when i'll see a good entry point.

Good trading for all.
Any chance for a potential retrace from such a level in your opinion? How many hours are left before the opening bell? I guess it is around 2 hours, right?
  • #159,691
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:07pm Nov 8, 2009 2:07pm
hello everyone - I promised some price action case studies - take a look on my blog if you wish. everybody is welcome
  • #159,692
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:12pm Nov 8, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting cannarek
hello everyone - I promised some price action case studies - take a look on my blog if you wish. everybody is welcome
Master execution. Exit a bit rash? You were basically in a free trade once the first lot out right? Why didn't you wait longer?
  • #159,693
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:18pm Nov 8, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting investor_me
Any chance for a potential retrace from such a level in your opinion? How many hours are left before the opening bell? I guess it is around 2 hours, right?
Sure we will have a retrace. I'm waiting for at least 50% and contact 1Hr candle with 5 SMA + candle in 15mn. Opening depends on the broker. FXPRO will open in 45 mn, FXCM will in 1h45.

Good trading for all.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #159,694
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:22pm Nov 8, 2009 2:22pm
M5 pennant on Oanda. Goddamnit! If this breaks up before the opening will probably be the largest gap seen on EU in the latest 6 months at least.

[EDIT] This setup is so easy to trade my fingers are hurting because I still haev 1.45 h till opening.
  • #159,695
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:27pm Nov 8, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting TheFisherman
M5 pennant on Oanda. Goddamnit! If this breaks up before the opening will probably be the largest gap seen on EU in the latest 6 months at least.

[EDIT] This setup is so easy to trade my fingers are hurting because I still haev 1.45 h till opening.
Yep, sounds like an easy short at market open.
  • #159,696
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:29pm Nov 8, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting TheFisherman
M5 pennant on Oanda. Goddamnit! If this breaks up before the opening will probably be the largest gap seen on EU in the latest 6 months at least.

[EDIT] This setup is so easy to trade my fingers are hurting because I still haev 1.45 h till opening.
What setup do you mean? Are you expecting a break of the 1.4915 resistance line just after the open of the trade? Or will you sell?
  • #159,697
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:33pm Nov 8, 2009 2:33pm
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” around the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.
“There are indications that the U.S. dollar is now serving as the funding currency for carry trades,” the IMF said in a report published yesterday. “These trades may be contributing to upward pressure on the euro and some emerging-economy currencies.” While the dollar “has moved closer to medium-run equilibrium,” it is still “on the strong side.”
With investors able to borrow at near-zero interest rates in the U.S., some economists are concerned that markets may become distorted as traders plow those funds into riskier assets. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who forecast the financial crisis in 2006, said Nov. 4 that investors are milking the “mother of all carry trades.”
“U.S. interest rates look to remain near zero through the first half of 2010 at the very least, which provides traders plenty of time to continue with carry trades,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at the online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “Labor-market conditions are still very challenging in the U.S., and the rest of the world is improving faster. The dollar remains the weakest link.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...DqoEZ.mU&pos=5
  • #159,698
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:34pm Nov 8, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting investor_me
What setup do you mean? Are you expecting a break of the 1.4915 resistance line just after the open of the trade? Or will you sell?
A pennant is a pennant. Take the trade only long on pennant break. For better safety you can have a secondary trade the top break seeing that the move retraced about 1/3 of the way on first leg down. It's a classic setup.
  • #159,699
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:34pm Nov 8, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting investor_me
What setup do you mean? Are you expecting a break of the 1.4915 resistance line just after the open of the trade? Or will you sell?
Not expecting anything. Take the trade if the break occurs.
  • #159,700
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:46pm Nov 8, 2009 2:46pm
I can understand that short traders are furious now when they see market is going north and trading is close. Why opening a market when dealing is closed? FXPRO is already close, AVAFX is so, FXCM is open but trading is close. Means if they put a SL of 40 pips, and at open market EU comes back to friday close price, they are seeing their money burn without making anything.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
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