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Attachments: The CARMEN System Indicator
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The CARMEN System Indicator

  • #181
  • Edited 9:36am Nov 7, 2009 9:16am | Edited 9:36am
Watching chart with "Carmen" on 15 TF min.. Here is what I've

been notice.. In general pair always return to the middle in Yellow/Blue

line range. Problem of this method is that you losing all the profits while

waiting appositive direction crossings. Most of the trades are positive,

why not take 40-50 pips profit, but instead wait till white line cross another

those Blue/Yellow for the other direction and potentially get nothing or even
lose???

Here is what I can advise. (Based on 15m TF ERUJPY) when White line

cross the blue one (for LONG positing) enter long and we need another

line Adjustable let's say 40-50 pips HIGHER then Blue/LIME one which tracks movement (Like MA with +50 - 50 pips
away from Blu/Yellow), ones it's get hit

Take Profit and wait for another crossing either direction, same thing
we need for SHORT another line 40-50 pips (based on 15TF) below

YELLOW line, ones it's hit then Take profit So? We basically need 4 lines

instead of 2.. Check for your self! Ones Trade gets too far from Yellow/BLUE

it's always reverses, why wait??? Take Profit and wait for another setup!

Here: Take profit every time trade moving away from YELLOW/BLUE (LIME) in my example for 50 pips (adjustable

depends on the Pair volatility and TF) AND WAIT! for another SETUP. In my example when Pair gets away 50+ pips

from the Lime/Yellow it's more likely would reverse back to median and we don't want to wait for this.

Can Anyone ADD 2 more lines? below Yellow and above Blue (Lime) (Adjustable?)

Thanks.
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  • #182
  • Nov 7, 2009 9:44am Nov 7, 2009 9:44am
Another Example. Every time Pair doing violent move away

from both lines in my example 50 pips it's always retrieves back to

median.. Here EURUSD 15 min TF.. See what I mean???

that 50 pips should be adjustable even to 20 pips for less volatile pairs.

This should be adjusted to collect 50-60% of the moves other trades (if no condition met) could just played out

as described on page 1.
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  • #183
  • Nov 7, 2009 9:52am Nov 7, 2009 9:52am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Another Example. Every time Pair doing violent move away

from both lines in my example 50 pips it's always retrieves back to

median.. Here EURUSD 15 min TF.. See what I mean???
Doesn't make sense the concept of a TrailingStop (thats basicly what this Indicator is ) is to let profits run not to take X Pips out of a move.
Only if you let profits run they can be bigger than your average loss.
Btw you marked the Buy at the wrong spot and the trade would still be open in that picture with room to go higher.
  • #184
  • Edited 2:24pm Nov 7, 2009 9:57am | Edited 2:24pm
Here is the example of clear uptrend.. pair running away about

20 pips from the Lime line.

Conclusion? TP line should be SET to 35-40 pips to not disturb

such uptrend.

Look:
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  • #185
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:00am Nov 7, 2009 10:00am
Quoting Tjpld
Doesn't make sense the concept of a TrailingStop
You totally don't get it.. It's not a trailing stop and you do let the

largest profits run, look my last screen shot. Has nothing to do with

trailing stop loss.... Anyway.. Do what's good for you..
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  • #186
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:03am Nov 7, 2009 10:03am
Quoting SkyzerFX
You totally don't get it.. It's not a trailing stop and you do let the

largest profits run, look my last screen shot. Has nothing to do with

trailing stop loss.... Anyway.. Do what's good for you..
The indicator is drawn using trailing points, so in a sense, yes, he is using trailing stops to generate the locations of the lines.
  • #187
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:09am Nov 7, 2009 10:09am
Quoting Pharoah
The indicator is drawn using trailing points, so in a sense, yes, he is using trailing stops to generate the locations of the lines.
Ok, perhaps you can name what I'm talking about Trailing Take Profit?

Also I don't know what Trailing points INDY is using but look at this example

Pair running 50-60 pips back and forth and Indy lines are sitting without

any change?
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  • #188
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:09am Nov 7, 2009 10:09am
Quoting Tjpld
Doesn't make sense the concept of a TrailingStop (thats basicly what this Indicator is ) is to let profits run not to take X Pips out of a move.
Only if you let profits run they can be bigger than your average loss.
Btw you marked the Buy at the wrong spot and the trade would still be open in that picture with room to go higher.
I agree that taking small profits usually limits your ability to cover losses, but I think it is important to realize that the nature of the markets makes it hard to find large moves without significant retracements. While I'm not sure whether 50 pips is the best answer or not, I think Skyzer's reasoning makes sense. There is some level, whatever it may be, on whatever timeframe, where moves typically won't continue without retracing.

If you watch E/J, for example, it typically goes one way in the asia session, and very often goes the other way in London. This would typically cause any sort of trailing stop to get hit. On the other hand, if you have a good feel for a pair, you know that exiting with an 80 to 100 pip profit (in my EJ example), is going to make you more pips in the long run because the next session will most likely hit your trailing stop.

Psychologically we like trailing stops because "someday it'll keep me in a really big move!" And who doesn't want to see +500 pips on their statement someday? However, I'd much rather consistently see 80 pips, and understanding the probabilities behind a system and R:R is a must.
  • #189
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:11am Nov 7, 2009 10:11am
This seems similar to the Vegas Tunnel.
  • #190
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:20am Nov 7, 2009 10:20am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Ok, perhaps you can name what I'm talking about Trailing Take Profit?

Also I don't know what Trailing points INDY is using but look at this example

Pair running 50-60 pips back and forth and Indy lines are sitting without

any change?

Exactly my point, a trailing stop, or trailing point only moves if PA goes above the last highest point, because of this, when it's ranging like this, the lines don't move (because when the PA is above Carmen, it doesn't go higher than the previous high to bring up Carmen, and same when PA is below Carmen, only when PA makes new lower lows from the beginning point of the flatline in Carmen). Also, Carmen's "width" is also dependent on PA distance from Carmen, The faster/farther PA gets from Carmen, the larger the "Retrace Grace" given to prevent whipsaw stopouts due to the new volatility.
  • #191
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:20am Nov 7, 2009 10:20am
Quoting aicccia
yes, the big profits in this system come from the trends...putting in a 50 pip TP would limit this profit potential a lot, but it's also possible that making 50 pips on most of trades would make up for missing the big trends.

Thanks for the ideas.
Ok, guys, please pay attention, that I'm not talking about hard 50 pips

TP.. I'm talking about 50 pips away from either Yellow (SHort) or Blue (LONG)

line. So it could go for hours just 20 pips away and then spike

to 50 pips away, that's where you TP.

That's the big difference, Because ones pair get that far from Carmen lines, it

almost certainly going to retrace back to median potentially save you 50

or even more pips.. This won't cut off up or down trend.

Scroll you charts on 15m TF and see for yourself.. Look for wide moves away from Carmen lines.
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  • #192
  • Edited 10:58am Nov 7, 2009 10:25am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting SkyzerFX
You totally don't get it.. It's not a trailing stop and you do let the

largest profits run, look my last screen shot. Has nothing to do with

trailing stop loss.... Anyway.. Do what's good for you..
The big profits in this system do come from the trends...putting in a 50 pip TP would limit this profit potential a lot, but it's also possible that making 50 pips on most of the trades would make up for missing the big trends.

Having said that, the functionality that you're asking for already exists in the system. I made the two variables, start_at_pips_profit2 and start_at_pips_profit3 internal in v2.01 so use v2.00, or you could just open v2.01 and make those two variables extern again.

Once you have a version where they are extern, simply make the first group of settings follow the price losely. Then once profit reaches the level you want(in your case 50 pips), you'll want the second group of settings to be much tighter. And then what you set the third group of settings to is up to you. Prehaps lose again.

Below is an example of what would work for you:

Inserted Code
extern string SetOne="*************Set_One_Settings***************";  
extern double space1=3;                         
extern double expand_rate1=50;
extern string SetTwo="********Set_Two_Settings***************"; 
extern double start_at_pips_profit2=50;
extern double space2=.5;
extern double expand_rate2=1;
extern string SetThree="*******Set_Three_Settings***********";
extern double start_at_pips_profit3=100;
extern double space3=1;
extern double expand_rate3=50;

Set start_at_pips_profit2 to whatever you want your pip goal to be.
  • #193
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:32am Nov 7, 2009 10:32am
Thanks a lot I'll look into it
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  • #194
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:56am Nov 7, 2009 10:56am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Thanks a lot I'll look into it
I took a look at those settings myself and they do seem to work pretty well.

Thanks for the idea!
  • #195
  • Nov 7, 2009 11:07am Nov 7, 2009 11:07am
Quoting aicccia
I took a look at those settings myself and they do seem to work pretty well.

Thanks for the idea!

Aicccia, first of all thanks for sharing your indicator!

I think Skyzer's idea was a little different than the settings you recommended. On the default MA indicator you can add "levels" where the ma is projected up or down however many pips you input. So, if levels could be added to your indi, when the price keeps going up, you wouldn't take profit until it spiked up unto into the +50 level (which isn't static, it moves along with your blue/yellow lines) or until it crossed back down for a regular exit. This would basically get you out on big spikes and save the pips lost from an almost inevitable retracement.

I think it sounds like a good idea and is definitely worth checking out. Hope this helps!

Thanks!

Cory
  • #196
  • Nov 7, 2009 12:53pm Nov 7, 2009 12:53pm
The question is : where should I put TP ?
All this morning working on that.
On one side if you close trade when PA cross back yellow/blue = a misery pip basket ! (0 to 100 and going back +20 pips !)
The other side is to have a hard point TP : 35, 50, 75 or 100 pips ?
Even TP at 100 sometimes you can have more !!!!
Then the only way is TS
For the moment doing research on most major TS at 35 pips. Will check 40 and 45..
Or there some champion of Trade Simulator to do that quicker than me ????
Last thing that you can only put a TS when the trade is open on MT4...
(on Oanda you can pre-set the value of TP, SL and TS (in bucks or pips): you enter trade bingo ! Everything set !)
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  • #197
  • Edited Nov 8, 2009 8:13am Nov 7, 2009 2:16pm | Edited Nov 8, 2009 8:13am
Quoting Cbh123
Aicccia, first of all thanks for sharing your indicator!

I think Skyzer's idea was a little different than the settings you recommended.

Cory
Sorry for large image, I just open chart full screen to show details. You lose nothing

when you TP at spikes.. Yes we need 2 additional LINES above and below

adjustable (Like in MA you can ADD LEVELs +50 -50 in Properties), so those 2 lines track exact movement of both Carmen lines, but

we need them SHIFT +50 -50 ( in my example).. Look, show me what

we going to lose if we stay in those trades except just additional loses?

So IDEA is to enter on the Middle and exit as far as possible away from median it won't hurt profit, if you catch the trend.

See this trend would survive just fine: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=184
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  • #198
  • Nov 7, 2009 3:02pm Nov 7, 2009 3:02pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Read the thread.
Without any offence : you should read my post before writing such things...
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  • #199
  • Nov 7, 2009 4:40pm Nov 7, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting aicccia
TraderColin, I've thought a lot about this tonight. The logic you describe is the logic I used on an earlier private version of Carmen. If I can bring it back, it might dramatically increase the profitability in ranging markets.
I agree too. I see more profit at first line instead of waiting to exit at both lines. Food for thought my friend.
  • #200
  • Nov 7, 2009 6:26pm Nov 7, 2009 6:26pm
Aicccia

In your first post you say that you do not use MAs anymore.

However upon closer inspection, your white line looks like a 4 day Close EMA.

Also, your blue and yellow lines look like open price of previous day (with a few pips buffer) which starts adjusting at Frankfurt Market Open.

Can you please elaborate more on this.

Logical.
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