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EURUSD

  • #159,341
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:44pm Nov 5, 2009 9:44pm
Quoting Duce
I agree with your analysis, but the trouble is, the market, including forex, does what it wants. And 9 times outta 10, the market will initially move in a direction based on sentiment and not reality. Reality will only set in after the fact, and after the fact means when those who have the ability to actually drive the market make their money (thousands, millions, billions, whatever). The small time investor will always get creamed in the end. Stop losses are for suckers. Only MM will save your ass when others are trying to steal your wallet. Tomorrow...

im gonna be mostly out till after.. but since i have a little expereince with heavy equip. ill say this new or old equipment takes maintenance.. things break.. if you want to know the truth just find out fuel filter production at cat, up or down. i do my homework
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #159,342
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:57pm Nov 5, 2009 9:57pm
Don't get me wrong, I understand and agree with you. Your real life indicators include CAT and jobless numbers. So do mine. But a lot of traders are cattle and once they start running, its hard to tell them they're going the wrong way. They end up finding out the hard way.

As you know, I mostly trade USDCAD. And a far as my real life indicators are concerned, I still see unemployment and a lot of people running out of EI benefits, but I also see a trickle of hiring in some sectors. My contacts in the construction sector are just waiting for signatures on contracts / tenders. As of right now, lots of pokers in the fire, but nothing is closing. Hopefully this will change.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #159,343
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:01pm Nov 5, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting Duce
Don't get me wrong, I understand and agree with you. Your real life indicators include CAT and jobless numbers. So do mine. But a lot of traders are cattle and once they start running, its hard to tell them they're going the wrong way. They end up finding out the hard way.

As you know, I mostly trade USDCAD. And a far as my real life indicators are concerned, I still see unemployment and a lot of people running out of EI benefits, but I also see a trickle of hiring in some sectors. My contacts in the construction sector are just waiting for signatures...
same here although forex may end most realestate for me. less headache. but the trend is up.. i respect it. i make money either way but eu does not move like others. easier money on other pairs lately..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #159,344
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:05pm Nov 5, 2009 10:05pm
have a read on cable? I'm not a technical person, I tend to just trade the numbers. However my gut feeling is that there is a lot of empty air under cable. Also, it appears to me that E/G is often used as a prybar to move the main pairs in the desired direction.

I know that the fundamentals appear to be wrong and would like a technical opinion before I decide that my gut feeling is wrong.
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #159,345
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:07pm Nov 5, 2009 10:07pm
my $0.02cents

EURUSD currently has a reduction in the 4H volatility -- the DCD indicator on the chart tells me that currently price is going to be choppy. 1H time frame also confirms this until market opens up in the London Session and or NY session tomorrow. With volatility decreasing on the DCD indicator below it's lowest envelope point we could potentially see a large breakout move tomorrow on November 6th.

We can see historically on the chart that dips in the DCD indicator have always preceded a fairly hefty trend move on the EURUSD.

Though the XZ indicator as well as the ATRSTOPS located on the technical charts themselves are all waited to going long. Short term topside target is of course the retest of 1.4900. I would have to see a serious move below 1.4800 before I would believe that the long term trend is short.

Therefore my hypothesis for tomorrow Friday 6Nov09 is that we will see a possible retest of 1.4900 either overnight in the London Session and or during market overlap early in the New York Forex trading session.
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  • #159,346
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:11pm Nov 5, 2009 10:11pm
This is a tough pair to trade (lately) because it is a world monetary power struggle. But I gotta feeling the good guys and the bad guys are all the same guys. If the USDCAD traded on reality, it should be at least 5 - 10 points higher. Is this pair trading on reality? Is Europe doing that much better?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #159,347
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:24pm Nov 5, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting Duce
This is a tough pair to trade (lately) because it is a world monetary power struggle. But I gotta feeling the good guys and the bad guys are all the same guys. If the USDCAD traded on reality, it should be at least 5 - 10 points higher. Is this pair trading on reality? Is Europe doing that much better?
And to ,my thinking, there is little reality in the markets. It is all illusion. And the illusions create our perceptions of reality. As for 'the good guys and the bad guys' and CAD; did you read the RBC statment a couple of weeks ago about Cad being undervalued? At almost the same moment, Mckay and the government were starting to talk intervention..???

Like most people here, I'm looking for some tiny gem that will indicate I'm not living in a made for television movie..
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #159,348
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:31pm Nov 5, 2009 10:31pm
What do you think ? show some chart ? we need proof people

Seems to be preparing for it .. unless news contradict the trend ...

Luck be with you ....

Cheers
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  • #159,349
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:36pm Nov 5, 2009 10:36pm
Quoting Artcritique
...Like most people here, I'm looking for some tiny gem that will indicate I'm not living in a made for television movie..
Welcome to the Matrix. Or, if you want a funny analogy...The Truman Show.


P.S. My apologies to the serious EURUSD traders in here. I'm done joking around. But this is what happens when PA has been zero all day. Good trading and g'nite, eh.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #159,350
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:47pm Nov 5, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting Duce
This is a tough pair to trade (lately) because it is a world monetary power struggle. But I gotta feeling the good guys and the bad guys are all the same guys. If the USDCAD traded on reality, it should be at least 5 - 10 points higher. Is this pair trading on reality? Is Europe doing that much better?
i got a little saddle trade on uc.. its just above 50% of the last move. and below 61.8% i got a pending short there 1.0679ish with tsl .. and a long at 38.2% of same move 1.0513 plus 3 for spread. and tight sl.. tp within those trendlines on 4hr..ill cancel one as the other hits..considering doing th same with eu
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #159,351
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:37pm Nov 5, 2009 11:37pm
My take on the NFP...

Fundamentals and Technicals look positive for the Euro. Given the Bullish rally that started 03Nov... there are lots of people still long. Some profit taking occurred during the previous news releases but the general trend of this rally is still in the up direction.

There seem to be two levels (A and B) on the downside the breach of which could trigger long covering accelerating a push downwards.

It all remains to be seen what the overall reaction to the news release will be but if the news is in favour of the Euro then the price should target 1.5 and a resumption of the longer upward trend as per the daily charts. If not, then a push below will probably see further declines for the Euro.
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  • #159,352
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:48pm Nov 5, 2009 11:48pm
Quoting realjumper
Yep, it's a tough life.....these are the market hours for me.....have sympathy!

NZ & Aussie: 9am
Asia: 1pm
London: 9pm
NY: 2am

Yep....I have to sit through the (mostly) boring sessions, and sleep though the action sessions!!! Ain't life a bitch?!?!
That's pretty bad, RJ - but here on the West Coast of USA is worse:

FO/LO: 11PM/midnight
NY open: 5AM
London close: 9AM
NY close: 2PM
Tokyo open: 5PM

...so, for the normal working stiff, a late night with the FO/LO is the only real option. I (when properly motivated) try to catch each open, but doing so means a serious power nap in the evening or maybe early afternoon. True pros on the west coast just stay up all night, I presume...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #159,353
  • Nov 6, 2009 12:09am Nov 6, 2009 12:09am
Quoting drgoodvibe
my $0.02cents

EURUSD currently has a reduction in the 4H volatility -- the DCD indicator on the chart tells me that currently price is going to be choppy. 1H time frame also confirms this until market opens up in the London Session and or NY session tomorrow. With volatility decreasing on the DCD indicator below it's lowest envelope point we could potentially see a large breakout move tomorrow on November 6th.

We can see historically on the chart that dips in the DCD indicator have always preceded a fairly hefty trend move on the EURUSD.

Though...
hi, that's what I am getting too, from the 4hr.
61 on the fibo...
macd divergence may be pretty much played out at this point...
then there's always further upside to r1...
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  • #159,354
  • Nov 6, 2009 12:56am Nov 6, 2009 12:56am
Quoting caldera
My take on the NFP...

It all remains to be seen what the overall reaction to the news release will be but if the news is in favour of the Euro then the price should target 1.5 and a resumption of the longer upward trend as per the daily charts. If not, then a push below will probably see further declines for the Euro.
nice chart, but your each way call was pointless unless your thinking of a straddle to trade it.

The chart is bullish as traders are positioning long ahead of nfp. I think we are seeing a bit of "buy the rumour..." going on. If I am correct then the initial reaction will be sell off, regardless of the number
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #159,355
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:00am Nov 6, 2009 1:00am
time will tell

The chart is bullish as traders are positioning long ahead of nfp. I think we are seeing a bit of "buy the rumour..." going on. If I am correct then the initial reaction will be sell off, regardless of the number[/quote]
  • #159,356
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:03am Nov 6, 2009 1:03am
still shorting ,first tp 1.4842 ,2nd 1.4811
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #159,357
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:05am Nov 6, 2009 1:05am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
nice chart, but your each way call was pointless unless your thinking of a straddle to trade it.

The chart is bullish as traders are positioning long ahead of nfp. I think we are seeing a bit of "buy the rumour..." going on. If I am correct then the initial reaction will be sell off, regardless of the number
I'm inclined to agree as even a short sharp drop may start triggering stops a further decline and then quite possibly panic selling.

Should be interesting to see the outcome.
  • #159,358
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:10am Nov 6, 2009 1:10am
I'm really afraid of possible choppy action before NFP - will observe fiber with caution.
  • #159,359
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:25am Nov 6, 2009 1:25am
today I have a free of duties day I have my pips this week already in my pocket.
  • #159,360
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:25am Nov 6, 2009 1:25am
Quoting Swissy
hey all,

newbie question probably but how come the EURUSD didnt go up today as the DOW increased by more than 2%. Recently it was: us stocks go up, dollar goes down, and other way around. Could it mean that the downtrend is gaining power ?
I called many bigger traders to find an answer, its the same from every institutional trader I contacted:

"EURUSD buyers today got stuck in traffic".
The Thief of Wall Street
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