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  • #159,321
  • Nov 5, 2009 4:43pm Nov 5, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting earthsmate
daily is showing up ...
Long or short? Who knows? You pay your money and you take your chances
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #159,322
  • Nov 5, 2009 4:44pm Nov 5, 2009 4:44pm
Thought I attached 3 charts this one being first...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #159,323
  • Nov 5, 2009 4:47pm Nov 5, 2009 4:47pm
Bullish momentum will need to clear the 1.4910+ area first.
Bears pushing the price down will need to clear the 1.4865-43 strong zone.
Due to the nature and importance of NFP tomorrow, we may see risk aversion appearing if numbers are bad.
The unemployment rate is not getting better and the FEDs has commented that it will keep interest rates near zero for “an extended period” and specified for the first time that policy will stay unchanged as long as inflation expectations are stable and unemployment fails to decline.
Very much may depend on the NFP numbers as a better than expected release may raise positive sentiments too.
***
You know what? TOMORROW IS FRIDAY !!!
Time to cash out those pips for a nice cold beer http://blog.fxinstructor.com/wp-incl.../icon_razz.gif
Trade safe!
  • #159,324
  • Nov 5, 2009 4:52pm Nov 5, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting earthsmate
daily is showing up ...

How?? I'm pretty sure my daily is saying WTF. Dow up-S&P up- Gold up,,,, and the EUR/USD is flat. I don't know what kind of indicator your watching but you may want to rethink any entry until the market moves.

The fact that someone or something is holding the dollar where it is should be enough to keep any retail trader out of the market. It may go up but if were going to, why didn't it go that way when the DOW was going up 200 points?
  • #159,325
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:02pm Nov 5, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting knuckledrag
How?? I'm pretty sure my daily is saying WTF. Dow up-S&P up- Gold up,,,, and the EUR/USD is flat. I don't know what kind of indicator your watching but you may want to rethink any entry until the market moves.

The fact that someone or something is holding the dollar where it is should be enough to keep any retail trader out of the market. It may go up but if were going to, why didn't it go that way when the DOW was going up 200 points?
Dow is 50 points away from 10000, maybe it`s waiting for a break...

I think it will either go up or range... a drop can only come with bad news tomorrow... if it comes at all.

Green pips!
  • #159,326
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:06pm Nov 5, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting alexandru987
... a drop can only come with bad news tomorrow... if it comes at all.
Tomorrow's not coming?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #159,327
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:19pm Nov 5, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting alexandru987
Dow is 50 points away from 10000, maybe it`s waiting for a break...

I think it will either go up or range... a drop can only come with bad news tomorrow... if it comes at all.

Green pips!

Marketwatch has the close above 10,000. Don't get me wrong I still have a couple longs running on the EUR, but I also have a Long on the CHF. I'm not hoping the market does anything. When it moves I'll trade, but for now all the stops are in place and guessing is useless.

Green pips to you too sir.
  • #159,328
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:38pm Nov 5, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Marketwatch has the close above 10,000. Don't get me wrong I still have a couple longs running on the EUR, but I also have a Long on the CHF. I'm not hoping the market does anything. When it moves I'll trade, but for now all the stops are in place and guessing is useless.

Green pips to you too sir.
It`s arround 9950ish now... the close was at 10.005
  • #159,329
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:43pm Nov 5, 2009 6:43pm
do the math. 14100 laid off in jan. and 550 more last week... in a so called boom. someone is talking through both sides of mouth. in a boom they will call you back, we dont lay you off. there is a magic number for oil that drops eu it ranges from 80/82 pb to 147 pb... so far 82 is the magic number..eu can go to 2.0 if oil stays within reason... watch oil in this area. it will weigh eu.. its up to far to fast... when oil gets to this area no matter where eu is its heavy. this number floats and may go up as time goes on. move has to be gradual to avoid market shock.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=azygVVsrbK9k
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #159,330
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:59pm Nov 5, 2009 6:59pm
NFP is at 2.30am my time, and I wasn't going to get up/stay to see it, but after the PA (or lack of) today, I think I'll have to see this. I don't care which way it goes from a personal standpoint, but to see it get solidly into the 1.5's would at least make a change!

Better get some coffee I suppose?!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #159,331
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:04pm Nov 5, 2009 7:04pm
>>someone is talking through both sides of mouth.<<

That is the public face for you. I long ago decided that people only tell you something when they want to influence your thinking???

That said, they want to put a good spin on things. There are supporting facts, mainly that employment is a trailing indicator as you know, and also that business profitablity is not nessesarily depending on total number of bodies on the shop floor.

Your point on the oil is very good, I watch it all the time. But, you have to sort of average. The day to day prices are so manipulated.
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #159,332
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:11pm Nov 5, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting realjumper
NFP is at 2.30am my time, and I wasn't going to get up/stay to see it, but after the PA (or lack of) today, I think I'll have to see this. I don't care which way it goes from a personal standpoint, but to see it get solidly into the 1.5's would at least make a change!

Better get some coffee I suppose?!

Jumper,

I think that's somewhat nifty that you can wake up early Saturday Morning (very early) where you live
and still catch the tail-end of the Friday London close and late New York afternoon movement,
even though by that time price action has usually slowed down to a crawl.

If we could trade on Saturday here in the states, many of us would never
get to leave the house again.....or even get out of the chair
  • #159,333
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:13pm Nov 5, 2009 7:13pm
Quoting Artcritique
>>someone is talking through both sides of mouth.<<

That is the public face for you. I long ago decided that people only tell you something when they want to influence your thinking???

That said, they want to put a good spin on things. There are supporting facts, mainly that employment is a trailing indicator as you know, and also that business profitablity is not nessesarily depending on total number of bodies on the shop floor.

Your point on the oil is very good, I watch it all the time. But, you have to sort of average. The day to day prices...
i think you missed employment part. the point is its CATERPILLAR.. in a boom they would be the first indicator.. cat is a commodity bell wether...they would be the first to hire/rehire. not lay off..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #159,334
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:16pm Nov 5, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting toshi
Jumper,

I think that's somewhat nifty that you can wake up early Saturday Morning (very early) where you live
and still catch the tail-end of the Friday London close and late New York afternoon movement,
even though by that time price action has usually slowed down to a crawl.

If we could trade on Saturday here in the states, many of us would never
get to leave the house again.....or even get out of the chair
True, but I DO like my bed on Friday nights.....not to mention my end-of-week Tequila!! It might be worth the (considerable!) sacrifice though!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #159,335
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:23pm Nov 5, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
i think you missed employment part. the point is its CATERPILLAR.. in a boom they would be the first indicator.. cat is a commodity bell wether...they would be the first to hire/rehire. not lay off..
But, this whole economic thing is like a slinky or a "caterpillar".. Cat had a few huge production years with the oil boom. They have brand new unused and near new equipment for sale all over the world. A lot of companies either could not pay for or did not need the equipment they had ordered. And Cat is like everyone else. They kept building stuff right into the crunch. There was no "cash for clunkers" program for their stuff.. . It takes a fair bit of rebound profit to warrant buying new earthmoving equipment. It generally doesn't happen till there is so much fat in the economy that new companies are springing up and nice fat contracts are being granted.
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #159,336
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:26pm Nov 5, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
i think you missed employment part. the point is its CATERPILLAR.. in a boom they would be the first indicator.. cat is a commodity bell wether...they would be the first to hire/rehire. not lay off..
I agree with your analysis, but the trouble is, the market, including forex, does what it wants. And 9 times outta 10, the market will initially move in a direction based on sentiment and not reality. Reality will only set in after the fact, and after the fact means when those who have the ability to actually drive the market make their money (thousands, millions, billions, whatever). The small time investor will always get creamed in the end. Stop losses are for suckers. Only MM will save your ass when others are trying to steal your wallet. Tomorrow is gonna be ugly, but fantastic for those who 'guessed' right.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #159,337
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:27pm Nov 5, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting Artcritique
But, this whole economic thing is like a slinky or a "caterpillar".. Cat had a few huge production years with the oil boom. They have brand new unused and near new equipment for sale all over the world. A lot of companies either could not pay for or did not need the equipment they had ordered. And Cat is like everyone else. They kept building stuff right into the crunch. There was no "cash for clunkers" program for their stuff.. . It takes a fair bit of rebound profit to warrant buying new earthmoving equipment. It generally doesn't happen...
or
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #159,338
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:28pm Nov 5, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting realjumper
True, but I DO like my bed on Friday nights.....not to mention my end-of-week Tequila!! It might be worth the (considerable!) sacrifice though!!
After last night I think I could sleep for a week..
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #159,339
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:34pm Nov 5, 2009 7:34pm
Quoting Artcritique
After last night I think I could sleep for a week..
Yep, it's a tough life.....these are the market hours for me.....have sympathy!

NZ & Aussie: 9am
Asia: 1pm
London: 9pm
NY: 2am

Yep....I have to sit through the (mostly) boring sessions, and sleep though the action sessions!!! Ain't life a bitch?!?!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #159,340
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:39pm Nov 5, 2009 7:39pm
>>Yep....I have to sit through the (mostly boring) sessions, and sleep though the action sessions!!! Ain't life a bitch?!?![/quote]

But, I live in Western Canada, I also trade the equities mkt, and run a small business. I sleep friday evening to sunday morning..LOL
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
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