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  • #159,221
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:04am Nov 5, 2009 9:04am
Quoting cannarek
hunting for next beast started
what about eu...any post?
  • #159,222
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:12am Nov 5, 2009 9:12am
Quoting vinesh2
I think DOW, EU and Gold are ending their correlation with dollar. We should see disconnect next week
One day, we will leave this bizzare world of inverted correlations. Not today, however, and most probably not next week. It will end when the US starts giving signals that it will get it's physcal house in order. Under present management, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.
  • #159,223
  • Edited 11:56am Nov 5, 2009 9:12am | Edited 11:56am
Ok, bulls have had their fun,

Lets go back to below 1.45 already.


might make a pit stop at 1.4965 though




.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #159,224
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:14am Nov 5, 2009 9:14am
Quoting acw204
what about eu...any post?
I would say up, but am aside that market now. if good price action about 4850 I would be looking longs
  • #159,225
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:18am Nov 5, 2009 9:18am
Quoting acw204
what about eu...any post?
screen uploaded - look on my blog if you wish
  • #159,226
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:19am Nov 5, 2009 9:19am
Quoting cannarek
I would say up, but am aside that market now. if good price action about 4850 I would be looking longs
thanks.....
  • #159,227
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:24am Nov 5, 2009 9:24am
this may be a dumb question but how do you determine good price action?
Thanks.
  • #159,228
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:32am Nov 5, 2009 9:32am
Quoting taomql4
for fun--you can keep an eye on UJ--its first down target is 90.134..

I am also short on that one

My view is that that pair is in bear trend, with break of last week; and will continue to struggle above 91-92.

Added some shorts yesterday, waiting to cash out below 89.90s. (which came close today but didn't follow through)


Sentiment is bearish below 92.50s area.
  • #159,229
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:34am Nov 5, 2009 9:34am
Equities is up 150 points Oil stalling at 80 and Gold struggling $1100 doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. It will take a solid economic news to push thru to numbers
  • #159,230
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:39am Nov 5, 2009 9:39am
Quoting vinesh2
Equities is up 150 points Oil stalling at 80 and Gold struggling $1100 doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. It will take a solid economic news to push thru to numbers
what do you mean??
  • #159,231
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:40am Nov 5, 2009 9:40am
If oil breaks the 82 handle then I retract my statment but from what it looks like we maybe topping out on Oil and Gold.
  • #159,232
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:55am Nov 5, 2009 9:55am
Quoting vinesh2
If oil breaks the 82 handle then I retract my statment but from what it looks like we maybe topping out on Oil and Gold.
I think you have the tail wagging the dog... Gold and Oil are rising on dollar weakness. If you must be long the dollar, you should start asking yourself 'at what price will there be more central bank intervention'? Answer that question, and you have a good shorting opportunity. Otherwise, it is plain as day that the US is pushing a weak dollar right now. As the US is still the biggest power in the world, I would not be fighting their agenda.
  • #159,233
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:01am Nov 5, 2009 10:01am
FX_Petra yes oil and gold are rising and they will keep rising no doubt about that. But they have risen too quickly for the fundementals to support it. I am looking for a serious pull back on both of them. Granted US is most powerfull in the world but the price of dlr is not in the best interest for ppl holding US debt and I think China will react severely if the USD keeps going down. Also from physological perspective too many ppl are dollar short and this is going to cause a short squeeze soon and most likely catalyst will be the job numbers.
  • #159,234
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:04am Nov 5, 2009 10:04am
Anyway gold ,oil still in good correlation with eurusd .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #159,235
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:05am Nov 5, 2009 10:05am
mike doug-- moment of truth is here--wILL LONG bias
going to hold......
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  • #159,236
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:05am Nov 5, 2009 10:05am
Fontu I was talking about oil, gold in correlation with dollar no just EU/USD
  • #159,237
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:11am Nov 5, 2009 10:11am
Quoting vinesh2
FX_Petra yes oil and gold are rising and they will keep rising no doubt about that. But they have risen too quickly for the fundementals to support it. I am looking for a serious pull back on both of them. Granted US is most powerfull in the world but the price of dlr is not in the best interest for ppl holding US debt and I think China will react severely if the USD keeps going down. Also from physological perspective too many ppl are dollar short and this is going to cause a short squeeze soon and most likely catalyst will be the job numbers.

Yes, there will be interventions to stop the dollar decline... but it will not matter from a long term perspecitve. If the US wants a weaker dollar, it is going to happen. There may be some give and take and heart attacks along the way.... but on this they cannot be opposed. In the end, China's only threat is to stop buying US debt... and this would crash the paper they are already holding. At some point in the future, the US economy will boom again, the US will impose some physcal discipline, and the dollar will roar back. But not today, next week, next month, or next year. Yes, there will be fluctuations... but until US stops promoting weak dollar, this presents one of the geatest opportunities I have ever seen in forex. Until a previous swing low on the Daily chart is violated, buy dips and enjoy the free money courtesy of the United States Of America!
  • #159,238
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:15am Nov 5, 2009 10:15am
Quoting taomql4
mike doug--your moment of truth is here--Is your LONG bias
going to hold......
i sill keep my point of view, from the Daily Trend.

Trend is our friend, and the longer TF the trend is, the more reliable it is.

Its true that trend changes in smaller TF first, but thats something like trying to predict the future, and as for me, Future does not exist.

I will only be Short, when higher TF are Short also.
  • #159,239
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:15am Nov 5, 2009 10:15am
Quoting lenl
this may be a dumb question but how do you determine good price action?
Thanks.
it is very wise question. and I cant answer in one word/sentence. I just watch the chart, when it reacts to my lines/areas, when I can see hammer candles, other formations, when I can see the price bouncing adn etc - this is nice price action. when I see the price goes through my line like a tank - it is bad price action, I will be looking for bouncing on the other side and so on. I just try to SEE when and WHERE money are pushed to the market, that's all.
  • #159,240
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:18am Nov 5, 2009 10:18am
Quoting cannarek
it is very wise question. and I cant answer in one word/sentence. I just watch the chart, when it reacts to my lines/areas, when I can see hammer candles, other formations, when I can see the price bouncing adn etc - this is nice price action. when I see the price goes through my line like a tank - it is bad price action, I will be looking for bouncing on the other side and so on. I just try to SEE when and WHERE money are pushed to the market, that's all.
usually when I catch right moment and recognize price action (money pushed on market) only a couple of pips is enogh for stop (I dont rather use mor that 25) and TP is always min. 2 or 3 x bigger
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