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  • #158,821
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:33pm Nov 4, 2009 12:33pm
It can only move to one of the sides, yet big guys know the same has we, and fear in the same way. Thats the beauty of the market.

Quoting majorusa
Do you hear this noise? Hrshthrshth... Is the liquidity drying before the FOMC.
  • #158,822
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:34pm Nov 4, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting Chicky
Is there anyway I can change something to bring euro down because I am short and this pa won't come down without giving me a loss? Like change cloths, untie shoe laces, etc.

This pa is very bullish, five more pips up and I get out of its way.
The natural selling areas takes care of it, don't be too worried. The market hit an exact point after taking off from another exact point. If I am right we will see 1.4744. If I am wrong we will see 1.4900 approach, then retrace from there.
  • #158,823
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:34pm Nov 4, 2009 12:34pm
USD Bulls ROCK THE HOUSE!!!
In Charts We Trust!
  • #158,824
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:35pm Nov 4, 2009 12:35pm
Quoting tradertom
sorry, thats anything else but not SHS
Yep I agree, if you really have to look close to see it then it probabaly is not there, although here is nice HS formation in the hourly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd hs.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #158,825
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:37pm Nov 4, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting OzorioFX
It can only move to one of the sides, yet big guys know the same has we, and fear in the same way. Thats the beauty of the market.
So what will happen if rate will be the same no change?thnks
  • #158,826
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:37pm Nov 4, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting NightMoves
Yep I agree, if you really have to look close to see it then it probabaly is not there, although here is nice HS formation in the hourly chart
And another one to the left of that...
  • #158,827
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:42pm Nov 4, 2009 12:42pm
Its amazing how many times that resistance level has been tested and yet no "Break on through to the other side"...sorry now you all have that song stuck in your heads dont ya...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strong resistance.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #158,828
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:44pm Nov 4, 2009 12:44pm
To answer you, i say: even with a bad data on employment today eurusd rocked high. The reason is that if the rates stay the same, and if there is a hint that the time for hiking the rates is still far we will have low rates for long time and that is good news for whom request money to banks to invest in the market. It will also be revealing about dollar valuation, that depends on rate expectations also. If this (hint aboute long time low rates) we will se big move up on stocks and on eurusd and carry trades. If they reveal project to rise rates the floor will leave our feet to our own luck.


Quoting nazik
So what will happen if rate will be the same no change?thnks
  • #158,829
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:45pm Nov 4, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting NightMoves
Its amazing how many times that resistance level has been tested and yet no "Break on through to the other side"...sorry now you all have that song stuck in your heads dont ya...
If the rate stay the same how it will be on chart any idea?thnks
  • #158,830
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:45pm Nov 4, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting michiyo
this looks like head and shoulders to me, wit the right shoulder in the making. anybody with me on this?
do not think it as such but inverted H &S & if fail , bear continuation may still in play.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #158,831
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:46pm Nov 4, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting Atlast
The natural selling areas takes care of it, don't be too worried. The market hit an exact point after taking off from another exact point. If I am right we will see 1.4744. If I am wrong we will see 1.4900 approach, then retrace from there.
Thanks Atlast. It is only the time factor that is killing me.

In last over two weeks took scores of trades each with 1% uniform and equal risk/reward. Normally four in each six (if not two in a set of three trades) go in my favor. But this time market showed me every exception it could in most of these trades and almost no exceptions in the trades that I left. Bringing me back to square one.

But this is the game.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #158,832
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:49pm Nov 4, 2009 12:49pm
Not sure what to make of the FOMC statement due soon, Bloomberg reporting it will be a non event with no change in the statement etc.

Shall be a good one to watch.
  • #158,833
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:51pm Nov 4, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting OzorioFX
To answer you, i say: even with a bad data on employment today eurusd rocked high. The reason is that if the rates stay the same, and if there is a hint that the time for hiking the rates is still far we will have low rates for long time and that is good news for whom request money to banks to invest in the market. It will also be revealing about dollar valuation, that depends on rate expectations also. If this (hint aboute long time low rates) we will se big move up on stocks and on eurusd and carry trades. If they reveal project to rise rates...
I forgot to mention, bad data upon emplyment gives the market a hint that rates will remain flat until the unemplyment becomes controlled and starts recovering.And thats why we have had EURUSD up even in bad usd employment data.
  • #158,834
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:52pm Nov 4, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting nazik
If the rate stay the same how it will be on chart any idea?thnks
You know I am not really sure, because each time we get a big news spike of some kind it only last a little while and it retraces, I think the real key in which way this ultimately goes is where this closes, if we close above 4850 then the chances of it going north more are very good in my opinion...if it closes below that level then I think further downside can be expected for another test of the support level....
  • #158,835
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:52pm Nov 4, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting OzorioFX
If eurusd detach from stocks we will have big down action. if not it will be a slow drift south, after the 5th wave on the dow and on s&p500
Do you think stocks will go up?
  • #158,836
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:56pm Nov 4, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting michiyo
this looks like head and shoulders to me, wit the right shoulder in the making. anybody with me on this?
I don't think this is a head and shoulders. Distance between first higherst peak and the "head" is too far. Second, difficult to find the support available taking the head and shoulders. Third, we took too long time from the beginning of the right shoulder and the same to have the head without support. The first move was AB=CD in a high trend with a retrace of around 50% and retesting new high with a projection of FIB extension at around 50% also. After the highest new peak, a consolidation came, confirmed by a support broken. Different Moving Averages will confirm that. Check your FIB after the highest peak (retracement and Gird), you'll see that that the descent respect these levels.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #158,837
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:56pm Nov 4, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting fxswing
We could even say that technically this pair is bullish since the Plazza accords low on September 1985
and technically say its bullish one pip above conseption .
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #158,838
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:59pm Nov 4, 2009 12:59pm
What to watch during the fomc action:

This week range bounds and mid point = (1.4845 + 1.4627) / 2 = 1.4736

Last week range bounds and mid point = (1.5063 + 1.4683) / 2 = 1.4873

So price action:

- Above 1.4873 would be bullish
- Below 1.4736 would be bearish

In between would be neutral chop fest trading...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #158,839
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:59pm Nov 4, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting NightMoves
You know I am not really sure, because each time we get a big news spike of some kind it only last a little while and it retraces, I think the real key in which way this ultimately goes is where this closes, if we close above 4850 then the chances of it going north more are very good in my opinion...if it closes below that level then I think further downside can be expected for another test of the support level....
It happens most of the time, but not always. This whole month was bad for me because of this. Market never took a reasonably deep breath after last month's NFP. It went from 1.4500 to 1.5000 like a sprinter, never bothered to re-test 1.4500.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #158,840
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:59pm Nov 4, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting nazik
If the rate stay the same how it will be on chart any idea?thnks
My game plan right now is to stay out until the smoke clears from the news later, if there even is any smoke...
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