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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #47,481
  • Nov 3, 2009 3:42pm Nov 3, 2009 3:42pm
Quoting Wamo
Regarding your daily chart, wouldn't you want that divergence to be in the direction of your trade, not against it? The way I read it, the divergence is indicating weakness in the rise of the last many bars, and therefore is advising against a long trade.

Note, I am new to the James16 method, so I may have this totally wrong with regard to the method.

Edit: I apologize for picking on a single aspect of your analysis, I'm just trying to learn here. The rest of your points seem quite valid to me.
Hey Wamo

I believe the actual term is hidden divergence. But essentially the Oscillator is making a new low, while price is making a new high . So they are diverging from each other. I call it divergence either way

Best
Mike
  • #47,482
  • Nov 3, 2009 3:51pm Nov 3, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting Wamo
Regarding your daily chart, wouldn't you want that divergence to be in the direction of your trade, not against it? The way I read it, the divergence is indicating weakness in the rise of the last many bars, and therefore is advising against a long trade.

Note, I am new to the James16 method, so I may have this totally wrong with regard to the method.

Edit: I apologize for picking on a single aspect of your analysis, I'm just trying to learn here. The rest of your points seem quite valid to me.
That is actually a hidden bullish divergence.
  • #47,483
  • Nov 3, 2009 4:11pm Nov 3, 2009 4:11pm
Wow, that is completely opposite to how I've been reading oscillator divergence. Thanks for clearing that up!
  • #47,484
  • Nov 3, 2009 4:24pm Nov 3, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting arthurwtm
how do u guys deal with sunday bars?

i've been ignoring it since it's only a few hours...but:

saw the pin at a good location but ignored it since it's a sunday bar and previous bars dont even reach the pin at all...

and missed a good trade
Hi,

I just wanted to say something real quick. I think you came to the conclusion that it is a good trade because it worked out nicely ( my apologies if my thinking is off). As you will come to find out later, both good and not so good JS PA do work out in the short term but to ensure a steady rising equity curve, stick with the good ones.

Hunri
  • #47,485
  • Nov 3, 2009 5:07pm Nov 3, 2009 5:07pm
what do u guys think about the location of the latest bearish bar?

i think it's quite good but im going to wait for a lil retracement before going in cuz it's already at the 50fib..
im hoping it'll retrace back to 61 hehe
...comments please!

btw this is the daily usd/cad chart
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  • #47,486
  • Nov 3, 2009 5:27pm Nov 3, 2009 5:27pm
Arthurwtm,
Before I saw your post I had
the USDCAD down as a 'touch trade' (on demo for this type of trade) off strong support level on the chart. Also looking up to the monthly there is also a pin bar indicating upwards
momentum.....
Let see how it turns out
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If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #47,487
  • Nov 3, 2009 5:33pm Nov 3, 2009 5:33pm
Dear All,
Pinbar on daily USDNOK, I cannot find any confluence, but a trade at the break of the pinbar would be away from the 5.7000 big round number just above.

All the best...
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If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #47,488
  • Nov 3, 2009 5:50pm Nov 3, 2009 5:50pm
Quoting fxdummie
looking at the giant head/shoulders it is going at least up to 1250
Hi fxd,
Could you expalin this statement please? All I can see is an inverse head and shoulders and I thought you drew a line to connect the neckline - see my gold weekly chart. This doesn't imply a target of 1250, but does show support on either trend line, depending on what you took as the left shoulder. How about a touch trade on yesterday's pin? Red line was my entry. Cheers
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  • #47,489
  • Nov 3, 2009 7:08pm Nov 3, 2009 7:08pm
To estimate a target zone for head and shoulders you measure the distance between the bottom of the head and the breakout point ( at least this is what I do - not claiming it is the only way) Depending on how your draw the trend line it could be anywhere between 250 and 350 points. Then stack up the distance at the breakout point and you will get target roughly between 1250 and 1350.

For me it is a reminder that now the price was over 1000 for couple of weeks the big guys will be pushing that target at least up to the target zone. No idea how long it will take and what the price curve will look like. It gives you some confidence that the price will reach 1200-1300 area before reaches 700-800 area (in theory, of course)

My point in the morning was that I can be pretty confident on AUD and CAD trade direction knowing that the gold is breaking hard in the direction of the trend.

I am not the one to comment on your entry - there are way more experinced tech traders here.
Plan The Trade - Trade The Plan
  • #47,490
  • Nov 3, 2009 8:13pm Nov 3, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting fxdummie
To estimate a target zone for head and shoulders you measure the distance between the bottom of the head and the breakout point ( at least this is what I do - not claiming it is the only way) Depending on how your draw the trend line it could be anywhere between 250 and 350 points. Then stack up the distance at the breakout point and you will get target roughly between 1250 and 1350.
Thanks for the explanation - much appreciated
  • #47,491
  • Edited Nov 4, 2009 2:30am Nov 3, 2009 10:07pm | Edited Nov 4, 2009 2:30am
I got inspiration from one of Jim's older posts about the trades his then-11-year-old took on EUR/GBP (if I remembered correctly) for 2007.

So as part of homework for understanding j16 PA while waiting for something to happen on the daily, I decided to take a look at EUR/GBP for 2009 (since we're nearing the end of the year already), and found 7 interesting setups involving PBs and BUOBs.

Although it's more for self-reference, comments are still welcome.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc eurgbp-2009.doc   88 KB | 480 downloads
  • #47,492
  • Nov 3, 2009 10:27pm Nov 3, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting Wamo
Wow, that is completely opposite to how I've been reading oscillator divergence. Thanks for clearing that up!
if u havent yet, check this out.
  • #47,493
  • Nov 3, 2009 10:33pm Nov 3, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting arctos
I got inspiration from one of Jim's older posts about the trades his then-11-year-old took on EUR/GBP (if I remembered correctly) for 2007.

So as part of homework for understanding j16 PA while waiting for something to happen on the daily, I decided to take a look at EUR/GBP for 2009 (since we're nearing the end of the year already), and found 7 interesting setups involving PBs and BUOBs.

Although it's more for self-reference, comments are still welcome.
someone who is getting it

that is not at all curve fitting

Well done arctos, someone had a light turn on a bit brighter tonight

Mike
  • #47,494
  • Nov 3, 2009 11:30pm Nov 3, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting stupotpat
Hi fxd,
Could you expalin this statement please? All I can see is an inverse head and shoulders and I thought you drew a line to connect the neckline - see my gold weekly chart. This doesn't imply a target of 1250, but does show support on either trend line, depending on what you took as the left shoulder. How about a touch trade on yesterday's pin? Red line was my entry. Cheers
I'm not sure if we're allowed to post youtube videos like this, but just if anybody is interested, I'm going to put it here... Mod can delete if un-appropriate for thread, but I find it very much integrated to USD outlook....


Peter Schiff's blog posted today...
Inserted Video
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #47,495
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:13am Nov 4, 2009 12:13am
I'm also going to post this trade I've been monitoring today... Just recording it on here for record

(also the daily has an inside bar going)
Attached Image
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #47,496
  • Nov 4, 2009 1:32am Nov 4, 2009 1:32am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
I'm also going to post this trade..
(also the daily has an inside bar going)
what was your entry price?
careful here...
that DBHLC is in a range. like a BEOB, it should ideally be in a swing high.
also, that DBHLC is tiny compared to the 2 big bars prior it (the red bar swing low, & the big green bullish bar)

if price can push thru 90.50-70 with momentum, then it may continue upwards, probably initially to 91.50 - 92.00/92.50.

Quote
i could theoretically catch a decent run
yes, it may or may not happen.
ideally, u should've sat on your hands to see what price will do within the 90.00 area. so far, 90.00 rejected the downside attempts.

just my view

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crappy internet, again
  • #47,497
  • Nov 4, 2009 1:54am Nov 4, 2009 1:54am
I cant help but think eg is trying to tell me something lol
i hav a gut feeling a sudden drop will occur when i go to bed. hummm
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  • #47,498
  • Nov 4, 2009 2:04am Nov 4, 2009 2:04am
Quoting supermatt
I cant help but think eg is trying to tell me something lol
i hav a gut feeling a sudden drop will occur when i go to bed. hummm
what is it telling u?

if u have such a feeling, then dont go to bed until it drops...
  • #47,499
  • Nov 4, 2009 2:24am Nov 4, 2009 2:24am
i just feel momentum wants to bring this puppy down to earth lol. im usually wrong . im not going to trade it i just want to test myself
  • #47,500
  • Nov 4, 2009 2:35am Nov 4, 2009 2:35am
Quoting supermatt
i just feel momentum wants to bring this puppy down to earth lol. im usually wrong . im not going to trade it i just want to test myself
no problem with being wrong, it happens to all of us.
if u dont wanna trade this live, then at least trade it on demo, to see if u are correct or not. that way, u'll have a result once u wake up.
with continued practice, confidence & 'brain muscle' builds up.
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