james16 Chart Thread

helps that the gold and silver are shooting up!

Nice pin off resistance last hour. Did you wait for the break before you got in?

K.I.S.S.

Any thoughts on USD/CHF and EUR/USD. I am on retrace of 4hr bar breakout...

Already set to BE on this one, lets see if we have a runner.
I go to BE at 1/2 R.

Um... stopped out.

Hey Arthur

It really comes down to location ultimately. This goes for all timeframes, and all bars. Location comes first price bars come second .

Take care
Mike

Based on the weeklies it seems 1.45 is in the cards for the euro

This is one I will be taking short if it closes as a beovb (or 2 day pin, call it what you want).

I typically play these with two orders, one set for a retracement short (more aggressive) and one on the break. The order on the break will actually be below .89, I don't like taking breaks of pins or other price action right into a round number (& pivot).

This is not trading advice, but here is my rationale in case this helps anyone with the thought process I go through:

1) It broke below the daily head and shoulders pattern formed (similar to
March/April 2001 pattern)

2) It retraced to pivot area and .90 perfect round number and was
rejected. Honestly, these are my favorite set-ups vs. just playing a
break of support when going short.

3) I like that yesterday it only closed 2 pips above .90 after being rejected
at .9050

4) It now may be forming a BEOVB/2 day pin bar.


You will notice that price action bars come last in my thinking on this trade. I don't look for bars and then force reasons or confluence that is not there. Last night I made a mental note to watch the price action today based on my analysis.

GBP/USD
When I compare this with the pin forming (still early in the day) on Cable, I believe this is less interesting for a few reasons. Let's assume it closes as is:

1) The actual pin bar itsself is a nice pin - that is positive
2) Placement - I prefer the tip would have hit 1.62 and the open close just above 1.63 (thus the nose protruding further out).
3) It is in sidways traffic (look to your left)
4) We are possibly forming a desending triangle and you would be
approaching 1.65 as well.

Now I am putting myself out there, as E/G may jump higher 400 pips and G/U could rocket to 1.70.

Regardless, if I were to play this pin (I would have 12 months ago) I would only play the break and I would look to exit at just below 1.65 and manage my stop loss aggressively.

Again, don't take or not take any trade based on my analysis I just thought I would point out the difference to me as I see it!

Nathan

Sorry for the typo.........Eur/Gbp not GDP....ha ha!

Hi.

Would You consider shorting it @ 0.8990 / s/r/fib50 lvl?
It looks like good sell area with tighter stop.

That is near my TP, however, Price is reacting strong to that support. Forming a daily hammer it looks like right now. SL at 1.486

That is the area I would have for my retracement - yes. I suppose some will wait for price action on lower timeframes before they pull the trigger (which is a great way as well, as if it plows through .90 they never sell it), some will touch trade it. I think .90 will hold, so I will just enter a retracement assuming the close of this daily bar is outside the range of yesterday. Good chance it doesn't retrace that far and I don't get it on the retracement, but I am fine with that also.

I like knowing my exact number of lots I will trade ahead of time based on my stop loss vs. seeing price doesn't get that high and trying to quickly adjust position size in real time. Besides, the break below .89 could get hit and I would still be in the trade, just not as optimum an entry. I don't lose sleep about it either way.....plenty more trades will show up - no need to chase them like a kid chasing balloons in the park!

Nathan

This is exactly how i see it ;] Thank you.

I should point out again though, I prefer todays bar closing price be BELOW the range of yesterdays bar (just a personal preference). That won't necessarily negate me taking the trade, but I may pass depending on where it actually closes (or I will require price action at the retracement vs. just retracing).

FYI!

Good point there Nathan.
I'm in the weekly DBHLC E/U trade now with stop just over the 1.49 but my favourite setup is forming on Usd/Cad pair. Entering at 1.06 monthly pin retrace area seems to be good idea right now. Nice pin forming there on h1 but the time is late and volume is droping.

Yeah, that last pin on the hourly (Loonie) that bounced off 1.0650 went for a nice ride up. I shy away from hourly unless I am already watching an area expecting a move, but that one could work out nicely. Good eye!

Nice hourly pin on N/U at hourly pivot area..........I still want a break below .7100 myself.

Nathan

Easy stuff eh

looking at the giant head/shoulders it is going at least up to 1250

It makes me think of cad and aud in relation with the move

Regarding your daily chart, wouldn't you want that divergence to be in the direction of your trade, not against it? The way I read it, the divergence is indicating weakness in the rise of the last many bars, and therefore is advising against a long trade.

Note, I am new to the James16 method, so I may have this totally wrong with regard to the method.

Edit: I apologize for picking on a single aspect of your analysis, I'm just trying to learn here. The rest of your points seem quite valid to me.

well done! Keep it simple!