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  • #157,561
  • Edited 8:46am Nov 1, 2009 8:36am | Edited 8:46am
Do as I say, not as I do. Goldman Sachs secretly bet on housing crash while peddling more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/77791.html

".... was buoyed last fall by key federal bailout decisions, at least two of which involved then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former Goldman chief executive whose staff at Treasury included several other Goldman alumni.
The firm benefited when Paulson elected not to save rival Lehman Brothers from collapse, and when he organized a massive rescue of tottering global insurer American International Group while in constant telephone contact with Goldman chief Blankfein. With the Federal Reserve Board's blessing, AIG later used $12.9 billion in taxpayers' dollars to pay off every penny it owed Goldman."

Now they are telling that EU will go to 1.5500, could it be that they are secretly buying puts, with 1.3500 strike price, expiring in 4 months, and want these as cheap as possible?
  • #157,562
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:42am Nov 1, 2009 8:42am
Quoting wwwin
Do as I say, not as I do. Goldman Sachs secretly bet on housing crash while peddling more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/77791.html

Now they are telling that EU will go to 1.5500, could it be that they are secretly buying puts, with 1.3500 strike price, expiring in 4 months, and want these as cheap as possible?
I don't hate or love but for Goldman Sucks I make an exemption. I hope they go to hell cause that's the worst place. Don't ask me what hell did to deserve it.
  • #157,563
  • Nov 1, 2009 9:35am Nov 1, 2009 9:35am
Quoting wwwin
EU will go to 1.5500, could it be that they are secretly buying puts, with 1.3500 strike price, expiring in 4 months, and want these as cheap as possible?
I would not put anything past the brokerages. Seriously, they are pure evil.

There is always a case to be made for each side of a trade, that is why the marketplace exists.

Any experienced trader will tell you, especially in forex, to trust the charts. Could a further shakeout be coming for dollar shorts and the commodity space? You betcha. Could it reverse sharply after this? You betcha again.

My charts turned decidely bearish for the kiwi and aussie last Tuesday. Cable has been a very stubborn little bird but I expect a sell signal very very soon. The euro will probably follow to a lesser extent. I have very key levels I am watching in the euro and won't even consider taking profit on my longs until 1.4450 falls.

I am keenly watching for some evidence of the dollar/equity negative correlation to fade. There have been minor instances of it starting but days like Thurs and Friday show how it is still very pervasive in the markets. I still expect it to break in the coming weeks/months
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #157,564
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:08am Nov 1, 2009 10:08am
Quoting mmccormac
Does anyone know if there has been an event that would cause a market gap?

From XE.com:


http://www.xe.com/gen/images/clear.gif
Live rates at 2009.11.01 02:13:58 UTC 1.00 EUR=1.48000 USD

Euro United States Dollars 1 EUR = 1.48000 USD 1 USD = 0.675676 EUR
What's the rate now?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #157,565
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:27am Nov 1, 2009 10:27am
Quote
Originally Posted by No Stress...EG = EU/GU. To get more comprenhesion about one pair or other, try to analyse the others, specially main pairs, even you don't like to trade them. It's very Helpfull. Like EJ= EU x UJ etc. If both are up, the cross pair will go faster and vice versa. Correlation with Dow and S&P500 is very high with EU. Dow, SP500 down, EU down and vice versa. Everything is correlated in Forex (open stock exchange "London session, New york, Tokyo", crude oil, gold ..etc). One pair could not be analyzed separatly, since others...

I do agree with you that it's important to analyze different markets to help you see the bigger picture on whats driving the currency pair, even if you don't trade them.

However, I don't agree that you use Eur/Gbp analysis for the Eur/Usd currency pair. Below I have posted correlation Data of a couple of currency pairs and Gold. I only trade the Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd, but use Gold to see if it lines up with whats happening in the Eur/Usd pair and I use Eur/Gbp to see if it lines up with whats happening in the Gbp/Usd pair.

For instance Gold and Eur/Usd have a very positive correlation, so if Gold is at Resistance and the Eur/Usd is at support, I won't buy Eur/Usd unless Resistance is broken in Gold. I wait for things to line up before entering a trade.

Note how random Eur/Usd and the Eur/Gbp currency pair has been over the last year. Even though it's positive over the last 3 months, I don't use it with the Eur/Usd pair.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Correlation Data.jpg Size: 32 KB
  • #157,566
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:34am Nov 1, 2009 10:34am
Everybody waiting 1.44 - 1.45 levels , i think EUR will go up after a little ( 30-40 pip down)
  • #157,567
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:37am Nov 1, 2009 10:37am
Quoting Duce
What's the rate now?

Live rates at 2009.11.01 16:34:58 UTC
1.00 EUR=1.46825 USD
  • #157,568
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:42am Nov 1, 2009 10:42am
Quoting PiptheRipper
I do agree with you that it's important to analyze different markets to help you see the bigger picture on whats driving the currency pair, even if you don't trade them.

However, I don't agree that you use Eur/Gbp analysis for the Eur/Usd currency pair. Below I have posted correlation Data of a couple of currency pairs and Gold. I only trade the Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd, but use Gold to see if it lines up with whats happening in the Eur/Usd pair and I use Eur/Gbp to see if it lines up with whats happening in the Gbp/Usd pair.

For instance Gold...
Sure, i will not take care the behavior of EG to define EU. That's for sure. I use mainly Dow, S&P 500, DAX, CAC and FTSE to trade EU. Confirmation for EU behavior is taken from Gold and Crude Oil. Different S/R levels and different technical tools on those, will define if i enter or not into the market. If i don't get a signal, i don't trade. I have a doubt, i don't enter, even i missed opportunities, i don't care because Forex is opportunities all time. I am sure, i enter with SL.
To trade EG i have to use EU and GU and not the reverse. I show this formula for those who maybe want to deal EG pair.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #157,569
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:45am Nov 1, 2009 10:45am
It's going crazy at xe.com

now, rate is at:

Live rates at 2009.11.01 16:42:58 UTC

1.00 EUR= 1.47499 USD
  • #157,570
  • Nov 1, 2009 11:19am Nov 1, 2009 11:19am
I'm gonna fill out the hours before the session start with some generals:

When I was a kid it used to snow just before christmas and the winter would go on up until the beginning of march. That was a usual winter with plenty of snow in the city and lots of snow in the mountains.

Last couple of years there were only three (!) snowing days in the mountains. Nothing in the city. Even without the schizofrenia on TV one could feel the "global warming".

It only took an year of industrial downsize caused by the financial crisis for the weather to avenge herself. Today there is plenty on snow in the mountains and snow is expected in the city in the following days.

That's how a distant thing as a "financial crisis" can influence our everyday lives.

[EDIT] I actually was telling a friend some weeks back that due to the industrial downturn this year we may have a normal winter. I was not expecting such an early come though.
  • #157,571
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:12pm Nov 1, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting TheFisherman
It only took an year of industrial downsize caused by the financial crisis for the weather to avenge herself. Today there is plenty on snow in the mountains and snow is expected in the city in the following days.

That's how a distant thing as a "financial crisis" can influence our everyday lives.
Based on this observation (bad economy brings snow), we should be entering a global ice age.

Where's Al Gore now? Global warming my foot. Come and shovel my driveway, Al !
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #157,572
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:14pm Nov 1, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting Duce
Based on this observation (bad economy brings snow), we should be entering a global ice age.

Where's Al Gore now? Global warming my foot. Come and shovel my driveway, Al !
Al Gore is guilty for the financial crisis.

When I was working in Algeria for an Oil Service company one day they had a two hours stand down when they made all employees watch 'An Inconvenient Truth' the movie.
  • #157,573
  • Nov 1, 2009 1:29pm Nov 1, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting wwwin
Do as I say, not as I do.....

Now they are telling that EU will go to 1.5500, could it be that they are secretly buying puts,
with 1.3500 strike price, expiring in 4 months, and want these as cheap as possible?
I think your jaw would drop open if you knew how close to the mark this was/is.
The 152 thru 155 strikes (calls) also have much volumes these days (selling that premium).

...maybe you already know.....
  • #157,574
  • Edited 2:44pm Nov 1, 2009 2:39pm | Edited 2:44pm
Hi,

Any broker open yet? If so would appreciate a live rate.

I am waiting for IBFX to open. I think another 16m to go.

Regards

Neo
  • #157,575
  • Nov 1, 2009 2:43pm Nov 1, 2009 2:43pm
hey, im with fxcm micro, trading still closed until sydney open but pricing active actual on 1,47044.
regards
  • #157,576
  • Nov 1, 2009 2:45pm Nov 1, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting neo1599
Hi,

Any broker open yet? If so would appreciate a live rate.

I am waiting for IBFX to open. I think another 16m to go.

Regards

Neo
Oanda 1.4714
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/

first screen has a live chart of EU
  • #157,577
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:04pm Nov 1, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Oanda 1.4714
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/

first screen has a live chart of EU
Thanks.
  • #157,578
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:32pm Nov 1, 2009 3:32pm
1.4713/1.4715 here (therefore the same as 1.4714)
  • #157,579
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:40pm Nov 1, 2009 3:40pm
What do you all think about the supportline. Will it break like the Transportation Average. I think we're at turning point, what do you think?
  • #157,580
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:59pm Nov 1, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting _tlk_
What do you all think about the supportline. Will it break like the Transportation Average. I think we're at turning point, what do you think?
I think we'll see. Wanna bet? Take the bet. 1:1
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