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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #1,461
  • Oct 29, 2009 2:20pm Oct 29, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting Scullmeister
Good results mate, but i can see that people are now going to start to get confused with which method this is. Can you please let us know the following:

PT=
SL=
What time do you draw your lines=
What days do you trade=
Do you close your trade at any point=
Do you have set SL and PT, or do you move SL to b/e after a certain time=

Only answer this if you want to share of course mate. Thanks.
HI,

5 -7:15 am Alpari UK time
SL 30
TP 1: 31 - TP 2: 75 (but could be 90 and 150)
move SL to BE @31
buffer long & short: 7
close all open trades at 18 pm
trade mondays only
OCO orders if buy and sell pending orders
ema 90

if you need all settings, you can find it on my previous post whis backtest.
this monday was not trade for me cause ema was far above box, only sell pending not triggered

cheers

Greg
  • #1,462
  • Oct 30, 2009 2:39am Oct 30, 2009 2:39am
A quick trigger this morning with Scull method at 1.6573.

Lets see.

  • #1,463
  • Oct 30, 2009 3:29am Oct 30, 2009 3:29am
Quoting matlobien
A quick trigger this morning with Scull method at 1.6573.

Lets see.

Loss.

With a system like this you have to expect 1 or 2 losses a week.

Still very easy and simple to use.

See you next week.

  • #1,464
  • Oct 30, 2009 4:00am Oct 30, 2009 4:00am
Scull

What is your experience on NFP Fridays with this system ?

I usually do not trade them - too many bad experiences.

Thanks

  • #1,465
  • Oct 30, 2009 4:37am Oct 30, 2009 4:37am
Quoting matlobien
Scull

What is your experience on NFP Fridays with this system ?

I usually do not trade them - too many bad experiences.

Thanks

I just trade every day mate to be honest. Today wasn't too good, but these days occur.

So for this month i finish +170 for the month.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #1,466
  • Oct 30, 2009 4:48am Oct 30, 2009 4:48am
Quoting Scullmeister
I just trade every day mate to be honest. Today wasn't too good, but these days occur.

So for this month i finish +170 for the month.
Thanks.

  • #1,467
  • Oct 30, 2009 6:51am Oct 30, 2009 6:51am
I have read through all of this thread and just have a small issue. Fed seems to have this method nailed more or less, his times are 2am and 5am GMT. Does this mean he takes into account the change in Winter and Summer months, if so what are the current timeframes London time?

Is this method still working, i.e. TP1 at 30, TP2, try bag an extra 40 if poss, but move stop to b/e. I am a little confused as to how you can move stop to b/e on the second trade immediately because if it hits 30 and moves your direction say 5 pips, are you then supposed to move your stop up/down, what if it retraces say 10/15 pips, but then moves back in your direction you would have been stopped out or am i missing something???
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #1,468
  • Oct 30, 2009 7:35am Oct 30, 2009 7:35am
Quoting Scullmeister
Is this method still working, i.e. TP1 at 30, TP2, try bag an extra 40 if poss, but move stop to b/e. I am a little confused as to how you can move stop to b/e on the second trade immediately because if it hits 30 and moves your direction say 5 pips, are you then supposed to move your stop up/down, what if it retraces say 10/15 pips, but then moves back in your direction you would have been stopped out or am i missing something???
Scull,

Both trades are entered at the same point. When TP1 is hit and makes +30 pips profit, TP2 is also ahead by +30 pips. Break-even is then set at that point (would be the same effect as a 30 pip SL). You don't move it from BE, and you have 30 pips of breathing room. You don't move the SL after that. Let the trade hit either SL or TP just like you are doing with your version of the breakout.

Hope this helps...

  • #1,469
  • Oct 30, 2009 8:48am Oct 30, 2009 8:48am
What a crazy spiky day on the GU.

I have tried different Tp and SL levels, but feel that Scull have a very good one here.

What you want in forex is consistency, not massive pips.

Usually good systems last +/- 6 months. So don't be fooled by only 170 pips this month. So far it did not loose in 1 year.

Greed kills you in this business.

  • #1,470
  • Oct 30, 2009 8:55am Oct 30, 2009 8:55am
Quoting Bobcat2
Scull,

Both trades are entered at the same point. When TP1 is hit and makes +30 pips profit, TP2 is also ahead by +30 pips. Break-even is then set at that point (would be the same effect as a 30 pip SL). You don't move it from BE, and you have 30 pips of breathing room. You don't move the SL after that. Let the trade hit either SL or TP just like you are doing with your version of the breakout.

Hope this helps...

Excellant, thx for your explanation, i understand now, so if it hits your SL, then you just make the first TP of 30 pips.

What are the best times to trade currently. What time is that London time as i am from England?

Cheers again, much appreciated.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #1,471
  • Oct 30, 2009 9:56am Oct 30, 2009 9:56am
Quoting matlobien
What a crazy spiky day on the GU.

I have tried different Tp and SL levels, but feel that Scull have a very good one here.

What you want in forex is consistency, not massive pips.

Usually good systems last +/- 6 months. So don't be fooled by only 170 pips this month. So far it did not loose in 1 year.

Greed kills you in this business.

I agree with that mate.

You can also use the system with times set at 5am and 7am, 15min chart, instead of 7.15am and set SL at the range between the high and low, but never exceed 60 pips. It seems to work alright as well. For example the one that some people lost yesterday would have been a winner doing it this way.

I think it's a case of being flexible, keeping a journal and changing as and when required with the market conditions.

Anyway have a good weekend all, and heres to next week.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #1,472
  • Oct 30, 2009 2:21pm Oct 30, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting Scullmeister
Excellant, thx for your explanation, i understand now, so if it hits your SL, then you just make the first TP of 30 pips.

What are the best times to trade currently. What time is that London time as i am from England?

Cheers again, much appreciated.
Hi Scull,

Yes...if price hits the SL after you have pocketed 30 pips, then you end up with a net TP of 30 pips. Personally, I have never done well with that scenario and is the reason I don't like using it. Why?

When you split your lots into 2 trades and take the profit at TP1 for 30 pips, you have effectively doubled your risk. How so? Let's say your risk to reward ratio is 1:1. Your SL = 30 pips and your TP = 30 pips. Overall, you have risked 60 pips (30 per trade), and now that you have taken your TP1 for trade #1, you set trade #2 for Breakeven. Trust me...Breakeven on that 2nd trade occurs much more frequently than you might imagine. So you risked 60 pips and made 30 pips. You already had 60 pips in the bag, but you are taking a chance by requiring the market to move even further in your favor to satisfy greed. A bad ratio... And, consider the increased risk when the initial R/R is already at 4:3 against you, like your strategy.

Sorry for the rant...but I'd much rather use your approach and take my 30 pips when the price hits that initial target...it's much easier to achieve, and can't help but have a higher strike rate as a bonus.

Best trading time for London market? I use the very same hours that you have stated in this thread. My manual back-testing closely matches your posting although I use slightly different parameters, and I adjust to current market conditions after I encounter 2 or more losing trades in a row. This has been a losing week for me. I wonder if the change from BDT to BST has anything to do with it?

Best regards,
Bob
  • #1,473
  • Oct 30, 2009 2:35pm Oct 30, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting Scullmeister
I agree with that mate.

You can also use the system with times set at 5am and 7am, 15min chart, instead of 7.15am and set SL at the range between the high and low, but never exceed 60 pips. It seems to work alright as well. For example the one that some people lost yesterday would have been a winner doing it this way.

I think it's a case of being flexible, keeping a journal and changing as and when required with the market conditions.

Anyway have a good weekend all, and heres to next week.
Scull,

1) Are you now recommending rolling back the end time of the box by 15 minutes?

2) Are you expanding the maximum size of the SL to 60 pips (from 40)?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Thanks,
Bob
  • #1,474
  • Oct 31, 2009 4:17am Oct 31, 2009 4:17am
Hi bob,
I thing your problem lies to Boris Schossberg book Techical Analysis of currency markets there's a chapter " myth of 2:1 " you find your answers , your style or whatever.

I also like to share some thoughts .
I have been 1 year in these trip ( very,very little) keep LEARNING and trying to archieve my goals. Spent a couple of thousands in lessons, courses. I FIND THAT j 16 forum worth millions and its for free. I recomand visit and read only the first 100 pages again & again to grasp the senario , then find your actors ( system, money managment ...) and shoot the film.
The think that i found is the holy grail for me is LEARNING and after that practice .The ladder has for me 20 steps and im only at step 3 or 4 i think.
At step 10 step i go live and hopfully at step 20 to the moon!!!!

Regards
John

P.S

PLEASE do not use ea's for your own safety.Read the market.EA'S can't cause the markets are made by humans reactions and behaviors.
Take care.
  • #1,475
  • Oct 31, 2009 4:42am Oct 31, 2009 4:42am
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Scull,

Yes...if price hits the SL after you have pocketed 30 pips, then you end up with a net TP of 30 pips. Personally, I have never done well with that scenario and is the reason I don't like using it. Why?

When you split your lots into 2 trades and take the profit at TP1 for 30 pips, you have effectively doubled your risk. How so? Let's say your risk to reward ratio is 1:1. Your SL = 30 pips and your TP = 30 pips. Overall, you have risked 60 pips (30 per trade), and now that you have taken your TP1 for trade #1, you set trade #2 for Breakeven....
Hi Bobcat,

Thanks for your interest.

I 100% agree with you, i just take 30 pips per trade and that's me done for the day. Nice early finish, then got rest of the day to do your own thing, or work or whatever.

You can either stick with 40SL and 7.15 candle or use 60SL and 7.00 candle, or even a combination of the two. But remember it's not always 60SL, it's the range between the high and the low. So if the range was 44 for example, then your SL would be 44, if it was 27, it would be 27SL, however if the range is over 60, so say 76 or whatever, then it's not a 76SL, it would be 60. I would never but an SL over 60 pips because then you are risking too much for the initial 30 pips you are trying to take from the market.

You will loose some if you stick with 40 because the market may retrace over 40 pips then go onto make a profit (happens a lot). But then again the losers that shoot in the opposite direction, using 40 pips will potentially save you 20 pips, if that makes sense.

For example this month using 30PT and range between high and low for SL(never exceeding 60 pips), using 7.00am candle i have made: 17 wins, 5 losses = 229 pips for the month. Some months this strategy is better, sometimes it's the other. Just got to be flexible i guess mate.

Hope that helps. (sort of, LOL)

Just have a play, keep records and see what suits you.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #1,476
  • Oct 31, 2009 4:47am Oct 31, 2009 4:47am
Quoting Scullmeister
Hi Bobcat,

Thanks for your interest.

I 100% agree with you, i just take 30 pips per trade and that's me done for the day. Nice early finish, then got rest of the day to do your own thing, or work or whatever.

You can either stick with 40SL and 7.15 candle or use 60SL and 7.00 candle, or even a combination of the two. But remember it's not always 60SL, it's the range between the high and the low. So if the range was 44 for example, then your SL would be 44, if it was 27, it would be 27SL, however if the range is over 60, so say 76 or whatever,...
Sorry made a mistake, it was 15 wins, 6 losses = 139 pips.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #1,477
  • Oct 31, 2009 5:11am Oct 31, 2009 5:11am
scull,

check your email..
  • #1,478
  • Oct 31, 2009 5:33am Oct 31, 2009 5:33am
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Scull,

Yes...if price hits the SL after you have pocketed 30 pips, then you end up with a net TP of 30 pips. Personally, I have never done well with that scenario and is the reason I don't like using it. Why?

When you split your lots into 2 trades and take the profit at TP1 for 30 pips, you have effectively doubled your risk. How so? Let's say your risk to reward ratio is 1:1. Your SL = 30 pips and your TP = 30 pips. Overall, you have risked 60 pips (30 per trade), and now that you have taken your TP1 for trade #1, you set trade #2 for Breakeven....
Could t have said it better myself Bob.

In trending markets TP2 and TP3 works well. The challenge is ranging markets. Then Scull's ratio works well.

  • #1,479
  • Nov 2, 2009 1:40am Nov 2, 2009 1:40am
Big move happened early.

SL will basically be in the middle of the box this morning.

Good luck

  • #1,480
  • Nov 2, 2009 2:15am Nov 2, 2009 2:15am
Great start to the week.

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