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  • #157,141
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:19pm Oct 29, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting No Stress
There is nothing in Forex called "no apparent line". As i mentionned in yesterday's thread here, retrace cycle AB=CD (based on recent valley up to the recent peak on 4Hr) was finished at 1.4705. It went down up to 1.4682 to close an extension down fib level. With that we were in a oversold level. That same lowest level of yesterday was a retrace of 61.8% and at the same time a resistance and hard support in the past. Dow made 50% retrace also (DOW and EU are correlated). Combined, bear took some rest and bull took place.
Not that I want to go into polemic but there's always a line you can draw AFTER the fact. I'm not much fan of fibo cause there's absolutely nothing fundamental in it's theory except that some bored guy playing with numbers found something cool. No supply and no demand in there - the things that make the markets go round. Does fibo rather works than not? No. This time you just got lucky.
  • #157,142
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:30pm Oct 29, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Does fibo rather works than not? No. This time you just got lucky.

many ppl misunderstand the use of fibos..to use fibos properly u must first know the elliot wave principle a which i think would be ignorant from you to call the principle useless or whatever u called fibos..., however without understanding the principle, they are indeed useless how u pointed out
  • #157,143
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:35pm Oct 29, 2009 5:35pm
If this breaks the 38.2% line, I will go short to 4710....else, if we get a breakout to the upside I will follow that and see where it goes.

Could be wrong (again!) of course, but that what you get for 5 cents!!

5c
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #157,144
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:38pm Oct 29, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Not that I want to go into polemic but there's always a line you can draw AFTER the fact. I'm not much fan of fibo cause there's absolutely nothing fundamental in it's theory except that some bored guy playing with numbers found something cool. No supply and no demand in there - the things that make the markets go round. Does fibo rather works than not? No. This time you just got lucky.
The market clearly uses Fibo lines and that is all that concerns me. IMHO price points must be chosen when traders decide to do something so why not Fibo points? S/R lines are also just some arbitrary formula someone came up with but they also work. If everyone used nice round numbers that would be sweet but they came up with these instead. Posted chart Fibo lines are spot on.
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  • #157,145
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:39pm Oct 29, 2009 5:39pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Not that I want to go into polemic but there's always a line you can draw AFTER the fact. I'm not much fan of fibo cause there's absolutely nothing fundamental in it's theory except that some bored guy playing with numbers found something cool. No supply and no demand in there - the things that make the markets go round. Does fibo rather works than not? No. This time you just got lucky.
if people are following fibs and placing trades according to fibs. it becomes reality..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #157,146
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:42pm Oct 29, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting ledobedo
many ppl misunderstand the use of fibos..to use fibos properly u must first know the elliot wave principle a which i think would be ignorant from you to call the principle useless or whatever u called fibos..., however without understanding the principle, they are indeed useless how u pointed out
Ahmm! If you read my posts you would know that I call EW used in forex bull-shit. The reason it maybe works in stocks (where it originates from) and not forex is the dis-harmony of the fundamentals of the principle (that at least sound valid in stocks where there's only one way): 3 waves up - 2 waves down. Now, EURUSD is just the reverse of USDEUR. Long for EUR is short for USD and viceversa. What the hell did EUR to deserve three waves up and USD didn't to deserve only two?

No man. Give me a 60-40% system that does not need humans involved in decision point to work and I'll make you millionaire in two years. Fuck that. Give me a sound fundamental that always works and I make you a 1mln in six months.

Truth is the market is random with respect to whatever technical, fundamental and time frame you consider. Once you acknowledge that you can start making money.
  • #157,147
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:43pm Oct 29, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
if people are following fibs and placing trades according to fibs. it becomes reality..
true
  • #157,148
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:44pm Oct 29, 2009 5:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
if people are following fibs and placing trades according to fibs. it becomes reality..
true. it's called a self fulfilled prophecy. Problem is big dog ain't using fibs. S/R, pivot points and couple of averages...
  • #157,149
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:50pm Oct 29, 2009 5:50pm
Quoting TheFisherman
true. it's called a self fulfilled prophecy. Problem is big dog ain't using fibs. S/R, pivot points and couple of averages...
started way before stocks..about 800 years back... repeating numbers in nature. like 50% ....
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #157,150
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:55pm Oct 29, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Correct me if I'm wrong but this resuming of the bull trend seems to have started from no apparent S line... Something fishy about it.

It depends how you look at it. I didn't think it would turn there either but what the hell I'm not running the market.

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  • #157,151
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:55pm Oct 29, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Ahmm! If you read my posts you would know that I call EW used in forex bull-shit. The reason it maybe works in stocks (where it originates from) and not forex is the dis-harmony of the fundamentals of the principle (that at least sound valid in stocks where there's only one way): 3 waves up - 2 waves down. Now, EURUSD is just the reverse of USDEUR. Long for EUR is short for USD and viceversa. What the hell did EUR to deserve three waves up and USD didn't to deserve only two?

No man. Give me a 60-40% system that does not need humans involved in...
...take the major moves or any swings and count how many times it hit the one of the fibo numbers within 100 pips...there is no right way right theory to trade...i guess everyone has different style but to bash one of the most respected theories used to some extent by most traders is a little ignorannt but hey u just cocky~) hope we all millionares one way or another
  • #157,152
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:56pm Oct 29, 2009 5:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
started way before stocks..about 800 years back... repeating numbers in nature. like 50% ....
i keep my reserves about that too. i'd like to think more that people see only what they want to see. and people wanted to see mathematical proof of god existence. that's all. breaking news: there is no mathematical proof of god existence.

gimme an example of fib in nature and I might want to look more into fibs. (more that I already did that is - it took me six months to prove it's absolute fraud)
  • #157,153
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:57pm Oct 29, 2009 5:57pm
bottom line different ppl use different things...doesnt matter how we get there as long as we get there
  • #157,154
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:57pm Oct 29, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting TheFisherman
true. it's called a self fulfilled prophecy. Problem is big dog ain't using fibs. S/R, pivot points and couple of averages...
In the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, each number is the sum of the previous two numbers, starting with 0 and 1. Thus the sequence begins 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 etc.
The higher up in the sequence, the closer two consecutive "Fibonacci numbers" of the sequence divided by each other will approach the golden ratio (approximately 1 : 1.618 or 0.618 : 1).

what was 2008 eu high? 1.630 as i recall.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #157,155
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:59pm Oct 29, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting TheFisherman
i keep my reserves about that too. i'd like to think more that people see only what they want to see. and people wanted to see mathematical proof of god existence. that's all. breaking news: there is no mathematical proof of god existence.

gimme an example of fib in nature and I might want to look more into fibs. (more that I already did that is - it took me six months to prove it's absolute fraud)
take galaxies shape, shells, human body etc there are hundreds of examples...not proof of god i dun buy into god either, just proof of a fractal pattern
  • #157,156
  • Oct 29, 2009 6:00pm Oct 29, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting ledobedo
...take the major moves or any swings and count how many times it hit the one of the fibo numbers within 100 pips...
100 pips????!??? that's irrational. where was the next levels compared to those 100 pips?? what's the time frame. entry point....sl...tp... there's more to trading
my friend than trying to prove that some prophecy works.

yes, cocky, i know. sorry.
  • #157,157
  • Oct 29, 2009 6:00pm Oct 29, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting TheFisherman
true. it's called a self fulfilled prophecy. Problem is big dog ain't using fibs. S/R, pivot points and couple of averages...

I disagree, the big dogs must be, prices do not move in straight lines to S/R, pivots, nor do they always stop on them or near them. The in between points line up with fibos it seems to me. I am no big dog but when they decide at some point that they will buy/sell, what price level do they choose and how? Psyche levels are clear but there are in between levels that must be chosen. When bank A says we will buy at the 50% line, bank B must also be saying we will sell at the same 50% line and that stops the movement on those lines, until someone says okay move the price to the next level. Random, definately, but in direction only to me and you never know exactly what level bank A or B has decided on but there are limited options. IMHO
  • #157,158
  • Oct 29, 2009 6:01pm Oct 29, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
In the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, each number is the sum of the previous two numbers, starting with...
SO???? I still don't get it. Previous year high has nothing to do with fib more than anything else.
  • #157,159
  • Oct 29, 2009 6:02pm Oct 29, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting ledobedo
take galaxies shape, shells, human body etc there are hundreds of examples...not proof of god i dun buy into god either, just proof of a fractal pattern
galaxies OR shells OR human body are words. They are not proof of fib in nature. I asked proof.
  • #157,160
  • Oct 29, 2009 6:07pm Oct 29, 2009 6:07pm
Quoting TheFisherman
true. it's called a self fulfilled prophecy. Problem is big dog ain't using fibs. S/R, pivot points and couple of averages...
Big banks do use fibs,that's the only reason that it is "working". But it's true they surely don't use moving averages. Except some banks "floor" traders..

But it depends, what u mean by big dogs. Let say ubs, deutsche bank both employ thousands of traders, everyone of them managing couple of 100.000. Those do use MA,EMA, fibs even some indicators. But other huge iceberg orders which move market significantly, do not depend on any of those stuff. Except S/R.

Believe it or not FOREX is still the most manipulated market, together with oil and gold.

Still holding those e/u shorts, if it doesn't move soon, im gonna buy long straddle, there's gotta be some movement soon..
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