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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #13,681
  • Oct 26, 2009 12:45am Oct 26, 2009 12:45am
Trend appears to moving to upside. Next 30 mins will confirm.
  • #13,682
  • Oct 26, 2009 12:46am Oct 26, 2009 12:46am
Quoting rainingpips
Trend appears to moving to upside. Next 30 mins will confirm.
Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: confluence chart.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #13,683
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:25pm Oct 26, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting rainingpips
I'm not arguing on the destination of USD or the economic ramifications of buying USD. The main point was to substantiate the sudden flight from USD. Weekly trends for USD/JPY and EUR/USD are down and up, respectively. My main interest is the direction of the market, and this is a non-debatable feature of the current currency market; the USD is weak.
Just wanted to re-highlight your post rainingpips, with something I saw earlier today (bits pertaining to our discussion highlighted red):

"USD/JPY hit fresh 1-month highs of 92.32, high since Sept 21 92.53, as some stops hit above 92.25-30, more upside seen, with offers 92.50, stops above. JPY could be weighed by rising concerns over Japan debt, economy, and new DPJ government policies. Former Japan Economic Czar Heizo Takenaka - architect of policy changes credited with securing Japan's longest post-war economic expansion - blasted the DPJ government for undermining prospects for recovery. Takenaka says in BBG interview, that PM Yukio Hatoyama's government is pushing the economy "backward". DPJ govt may be forced to backtrack on its pollices due to swelling debt burden. Hatoyama's admin decision to scrap plans to sell Japan Post shares, and lack of policies to revive economy, and cut debt are biggest factors for slower recovery in Japan's stocks."
  • #13,684
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:39am Oct 27, 2009 3:39am
sell :

sl : 92.12

ep : 91.92

tp : 91.72

caveat emptor
  • #13,685
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:51am Oct 27, 2009 3:51am
Quoting TheArcher
sell :

sl : 92.12

ep : 91.92

tp : 91.72

caveat emptor
Some Valid Source Told Me That Go Short From 92.00 till 90.00 with Sl @ 92.55 !

  • #13,686
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:06am Oct 27, 2009 4:06am
could be a night for risk appetite to re-emerge. looking bearish for USD
  • #13,687
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:50am Oct 27, 2009 6:50am
http://i37.tinypic.com/mw4jd5.jpg
  • #13,688
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:59pm Oct 27, 2009 12:59pm
Let's see how far she falls.
  • #13,689
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:29pm Oct 27, 2009 2:29pm
anyone gamble and buy at the channel support in the 91.70s? If so do you have a target?

I went long and expect a test of the recent high in the 92.30s to continue the uptrend based on an expectation that the asian central banks want a stronger dollar

cheers!
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #13,690
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:19pm Oct 27, 2009 3:19pm
Im still long from 91.50 targeting 93.50 stops at 91
  • #13,691
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:01pm Oct 27, 2009 8:01pm
The yen went down a little on news that Japan retail sales slid for the 13th month in September. Sales were down 1.4% from a year earlier although analysts estimated that it would be down 1.6%. Last week’s five-day Silver Week holiday was expected to drive sales, but reports that unemployed and smaller bonuses is leading to frugality on the part of consumers which account for 50% of the Japanese economy. I still don’t like the yen.
  • #13,692
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:20am Oct 28, 2009 12:20am
Quoting TheArcher
sell :

sl : 92.12

ep : 91.92

tp : 91.72

caveat emptor

lost : -20pips

(hit sl and ran upto 92.17 before falling)
  • #13,693
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:02am Oct 28, 2009 3:02am
anyone here long @ around 91.16 position?
any idea about this trade?
  • #13,694
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:06am Oct 28, 2009 4:06am
Quoting cphcphcph
anyone here long @ around 91.16 position?
any idea about this trade?
Position doesn't look good in long run (+4 hours from now). 4hr and 1hr trends are both down. I would set a TP for around 91.32, or take half there and hold till 91.40. Signals don't provide much momentum past these price points.
  • #13,695
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:25am Oct 28, 2009 4:25am
So do you think there will be a big rise during Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
,Durable Goods Orders m/m, New Home Sales later?
  • #13,696
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:55am Oct 28, 2009 4:55am
Quoting cphcphcph
So do you think there will be a big rise during Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
,Durable Goods Orders m/m, New Home Sales later?
This is why I'm worried about going short at the moment, because my hourly chart has a MACD preparing to cross, and weakening stochastics (oversold). Core Durables will probably get a big green spike to the upside from the trend I'm seeing in the data. I've attached an xls with a graph showing the trend toward the upside in durable goods. We'll really have to wait until 30 mins before the news release; as the positioning will be crucial. It appears that the big boys are selling, possibly positioning for a big upward spike.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls durable goods data.xls   29 KB | 281 downloads
  • #13,697
  • Oct 28, 2009 5:01am Oct 28, 2009 5:01am
Holding a short from 91.65 myself. Bear wedge broken. 4hr MACD pointing down towards the lows at 90.07 / Stop protected, so lets see what happens.
  • #13,698
  • Oct 28, 2009 5:13am Oct 28, 2009 5:13am
Quoting belekas
Holding a short from 91.65 myself. Bear wedge broken. 4hr MACD pointing down towards the lows at 90.07 / Stop protected, so lets see what happens.
Myself and few other people in the thread see a test of 90 today, I'm about to go short, but reducing my lot size in case durables goes crazy.
  • #13,699
  • Oct 28, 2009 5:20am Oct 28, 2009 5:20am
Quoting rainingpips
Myself and few other people in the thread see a test of 90 today, I'm about to go short, but reducing my lot size in case durables goes crazy.
Thats why i like to be in from the top or bottom projected in advance, if theres a possibility. My target is 90.124, so let us see.
  • #13,700
  • Oct 28, 2009 6:08am Oct 28, 2009 6:08am
Was stopped out earlier at 91. Should have taken my profits when I had them. Oh well.

Just hanging on the side for now to see what happens, but im looking to go long now from 90.78 (just above 4H trendline support) if we reach it stops at 90.40 targeting 92.30 to 93?
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