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A,B,C,D - 1,2,3,4 System

  • #1,561
  • Oct 24, 2009 7:58am Oct 24, 2009 7:58am
Quoting jedlanca
Hello!

I discovered this thread three days ago, and I have been amazed with all the trades that have been shown here. I would like to improve my trading using trendline+fibo in timeframe from 4H and up, and I think that this thread would be very helpfull for me.

Is there anyone active in here?
I would be very happy to start learning from its members.

Thank you!
Jedlanca
Yes it is, I dont have much time to post these days but if you any queries just post it and I'm sure at some point me or any other trader of the method will respond to you.
  • #1,562
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:27pm Oct 25, 2009 1:27pm
aggressive trader would have shorted from the Left tip of the crown but conservative trade will wait for a break out of the inner TL and a retest to go short.

there are several confluences that indicates likely 300-400pips retracement on ausd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,563
  • Oct 27, 2009 11:42am Oct 27, 2009 11:42am
Hi. I wanted to know if I have drawn fib right in my pic.
It is A/U
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  • #1,564
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:01pm Oct 27, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting shandy
So, crunch time again for GU as I see it....
Well, first re-test / formation of right shoulder didn't work out (unless your stop would have been well out of the way). Let's see if this next Bearish Engulfing will work this time....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,565
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:06pm Oct 27, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting TimeToTrade
Hi. I wanted to know if I have drawn fib right in my pic.
It is A/U
Your fibs are ok. nice trade, 1H had also had a good one earlier.
  • #1,566
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:10pm Oct 27, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting TimeToTrade
Hi. I wanted to know if I have drawn fib right in my pic.
It is A/U
In my humble opinion - Looks good to me, doesn't really matter though, if you pulled the top if the fib to the very top you would have a 38.2 retrace rather than a 61.8, so either are valid.

Second trendline isn't yet valid though as price hasn't broken the swing low / point B of your fib yet. Although it doesn't make much difference in this case as your outer trendline is the main one. And you had a Morning Star candle formation to signal entry, along with an S/R flip area. So looks to be a nice trade (again, in my humble opinion )....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,567
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:21pm Oct 27, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting shandy
In my humble opinion - Looks good to me, doesn't really matter though, if you pulled the top if the fib to the very top you would have a 38.2 retrace rather than a 61.8, so either are valid.

Second trendline isn't yet valid though as price hasn't broken the swing low / point B of your fib yet. Although it doesn't make much difference in this case as your outer trendline is the main one. And you had a Morning Star candle formation to signal entry, along with an S/R flip area. So looks to be a nice trade (again, in my humble opinion )....
Good post Shand however by drawing the fibs from the higher swing the extension target would be incorrect. We would draw the two fibs if trading fib convergence but the extension target would be that of the last swing.
  • #1,568
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:22pm Oct 27, 2009 12:22pm
Upper trendline broken, Crown left tip and head formed. Waiting for possible re-test / right-top formation sometime over next few days.
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  • #1,569
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:24pm Oct 27, 2009 12:24pm
Shand on the GU post, if you were planning on using the 382, a better fill was on the 1H. It was also a Gartley pattern.
  • #1,570
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:24pm Oct 27, 2009 12:24pm
I also took a trade on U/Y and it looks like bad trade
Was it OK to take this trade?
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  • #1,571
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:27pm Oct 27, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting Dra
Good post Shand however by drawing the fibs from the higher swing the extension target would be incorrect. We would draw the two fibs if trading fib convergence but the extension target would be that of the last swing.
Ah yes, with regard to target setting I'd have the top of the fib as you say. I was thinking more about fib level convergence / confluence here. Thanks for clearing it up Damion!
  • #1,572
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:35pm Oct 27, 2009 12:35pm
Quoting Dra
Shand on the GU post, if you were planning on using the 382, a better fill was on the 1H. It was also a Gartley pattern.
Do you mean where the arrow is on attached chart (which is a bit messy but hopefully you can make things out)? I see 127.1 extn and 38.2 confluence (or at least they are fairly close), with an engulfing at the extension. But then I have the big down trendline which it broke previously, then came back inside and formed the engulfing - so entry taken at close of the candle would of meant taking the risk it may not break the down trendline again. Would you have taken the 1hr engulfing?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 1hr.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #1,573
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:38pm Oct 27, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting TimeToTrade
I also took a trade on U/Y and it looks like bad trade
Was it OK to take this trade?
Maybe if you had taken a look at the daily you wouldnt go long there. The wave up on the daily is now complete shown at the fib. extension, so its possible we might have a reversal. Also we have a double top formation at a level where past support is now resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You will notice also that the 1H is forming a crown which is a strong reversal pattern.
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All the above and the fact the yeng is short across the board would have me not thinking Long there. I'm surprise you guys arent all over the yeng pairs short.
  • #1,574
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:52am Oct 28, 2009 4:52am
This crown is very similar to the one that naja drew on the AU the other day. Excellent analysis !!!! I was following these 2 pairs (AU and UJ) for short very closely these days. Apparently the UJ is challenging 91.00 level threatening to break down below that level and aiming for 88 support level. Lets see how it play out.



Quoting Dra
Maybe if you had taken a look at the daily you wouldnt go long there. The wave up on the daily is now complete shown at the fib. extension, so its possible we might have a reversal. Also we have a double top formation at a level where past support is now resistance.
Attachment

You will notice also that the 1H is forming a crown which is a strong reversal pattern.
Attachment

All the above and the fact the yeng is short across the board would have me not thinking Long there. I'm surprise you guys arent all over the...
  • #1,575
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:06pm Oct 28, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting shandy
Do you mean where the arrow is on attached chart (which is a bit messy but hopefully you can make things out)? I see 127.1 extn and 38.2 confluence (or at least they are fairly close), with an engulfing at the extension. But then I have the big down trendline which it broke previously, then came back inside and formed the engulfing - so entry taken at close of the candle would of meant taking the risk it may not break the down trendline again. Would you have taken the 1hr engulfing?
Yes Shand thats the candle with the arrow above. The market already dip below that down trend line you speak of. Yes I would have taken it if I was looking for a pull back at the 382, thats why I see it as a better fill to the 4H but I was looking for it to turn at the 618.
  • #1,576
  • Oct 28, 2009 1:01pm Oct 28, 2009 1:01pm
seems this wonderful thread is back to life

where is devan?
soyabean?
black-eagle
tansi

Good to note that aussie did as analysed............... its all about the strat we use here.

lets keep posting!
  • #1,577
  • Oct 29, 2009 12:06am Oct 29, 2009 12:06am
hi all,
just saw this thread and i am very impressed of what i have read so far. have always been in love with fibonacci.
i am going to stick around this thread.
thanks Dra, its a pity i did not see it earlier.

please look at the chat below and see if am right or wrong. its a current chat for usdjpy.
cheers!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 64 KB
it is better to miss than to loss pips
  • #1,578
  • Oct 29, 2009 7:31am Oct 29, 2009 7:31am
Quoting 2pips
hi all,
just saw this thread and i am very impressed of what i have read so far. have always been in love with fibonacci.
i am going to stick around this thread.
thanks Dra, its a pity i did not see it earlier.

please look at the chat below and see if am right or wrong. its a current chat for usdjpy.
cheers!!!
Welcome and all the best in your trading. Your chart looks ok except for that the down trend line is invalid, theres no established low on the swing down, you have to wait until the market waves before you draw a TL.
  • #1,579
  • Oct 29, 2009 7:51am Oct 29, 2009 7:51am
Hey.
I got short on USD/CAD and wanted to talk abot it here.
I'd like to hear from some experts what they have to say .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,580
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:07am Oct 29, 2009 8:07am
Quoting TimeToTrade
Hey.
I got short on USD/CAD and wanted to talk abot it here.
I'd like to hear from some experts what they have to say .
While we wait for an expert, yes nice trade I think. The only thing missing, and which gives and added reason to think short is the Gartley formation - convergence of 161.8 extension with the 76.8 retrace.

The other thing to mention though, is whether it would be better to wait for an entry after a break / re-test / Crown formation of the shorter-term up-trendline
as per attached. May be safer to do so and look for entry at right-tip of Crown on 1hr tf.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ucad 1hr.gif Size: 32 KB
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