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USD/CAD Trading Room

  • #181
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:04am Oct 27, 2009 5:04am
Quoting usdoutlaw
anyone have a recent opinion on the usdcad pair?

I think it is back into its previous down channel, with a bias toward the lower end of the channel since previously it was trending on the upper end of the channel and taking into account the recent break of the channel to the downside.

On the flip side recent daily price action leads me to believe it will test the channel resistance to the upside soon and then head lower.

Any comments would be appreciated. Any Pattern analysis help would be appreciated since I see no discernible patterns.

Thanks....
I Agree. I'm currently short.
Failure is NOT an option
  • #182
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:59am Oct 27, 2009 5:59am
Seems relatively strong, but I took profits. Will not short, and can only go long on dollar rebound confirmation.
  • #183
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:11am Oct 27, 2009 9:11am
Quoting Duce
1.0602 is my 50% fibo line. However, my longer term 23.5% fibo is up at 1.0711. If we can make it up there before month's end, I will be extremely happy. But right now, I'm playing my short term plan and it's working out beautifully.

Sometimes, good things do happen to those who wait (and wait....and wait....and wait.... )
Now I'm happy.

1.0785 is my next big target up. 1.0695 is middle ground (where we are now, but this could change quickly once Mark Carney speaks) and 1.0602 is my lower short term fibo down.

BTW, i have today's Pivot at 1.0631. We have not broken that to the downside yet.

My opinion...without jobs and rising deficit, the CND government is firing blanks. They are claiming 2nd month of fewer EI claims, but they are not telling you how many people have run out of benefits and still have not job. But who really knows what's gonna happen.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #184
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:25pm Oct 27, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting trendgenius
I Agree. I'm currently short.

Ar you still short? or did you just initiate?

I am seeing some support off the 10EMA on the 4hour chart, which seems to be a good chart to pick entry and exits.

Do you have thoughts on this?

Personally I might buy short term to try for the upside resistance of the currsnt channel with a stop short stop 30 points below. Ultimately I am looking to short near the upside resistance around the 1.09 big figure.

Cheers!
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #185
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:45pm Oct 27, 2009 2:45pm
A daily close about 1.0662 would create some support for longs...but just. A close above 1.0711 (not necessarily today) would be better.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #186
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:14pm Oct 27, 2009 7:14pm
I see squat bearish divergent bar (B/D/B). Strong signal for sell-stop-order 0.9725.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #187
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:20pm Oct 27, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting Duce
A daily close about 1.0662 would create some support for longs...but just. A close above 1.0711 (not necessarily today) would be better.
I think that Stop-trade for all Long positions 1.0625.
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  • #188
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:39pm Oct 27, 2009 7:39pm
@Nobleman;
Big kahunas for such a short FF existance.

Time will Tell All.
  • #189
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:51pm Oct 27, 2009 7:51pm
Big kahunas for such a short FF existance.

Time will Tell All.
  • #190
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:54pm Oct 27, 2009 7:54pm
Quoting Bemac
@Nobleman;
Big kahunas for such a short FF existance.

Time will Tell All.
No. Just luminous.
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  • #191
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:19am Oct 28, 2009 9:19am
Well there goes the usdcad long. Closed that after the Housing Number, since I am scared of the oil inventories number.

Looking to get short if these oil inventories are low. Or if these hourly upside wicks prove to be resistance a short is probably in order. With Target at around 100EMA on the hourly.

Cheers!
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #192
  • Edited 12:21pm Oct 28, 2009 11:04am | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
Well there goes the usdcad long. Closed that after the Housing Number, since I am scared of the oil inventories number.

Looking to get short if these oil inventories are low. Or if these hourly upside wicks prove to be resistance a short is probably in order. With Target at around 100EMA on the hourly.

Cheers!
Huh? Nothing wrong yet. Still trading according to plan.

1.0785 is back to where this month started. The whole month of October driving the USDCAD down was purely speculation. No fundamentals. That's why I held all my positions and just scalped while in a draw down. Now my account is flush green.

1.0785 is the next line I'm looking at up. As long at 1.0662 holds as support. Above that is 1.0912 and 1.0962, with a bunch of less important lines in between. Obviously these are swing trade numbers.

As Gator always reminds me...keep one eye on the commodities, and study your charts.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #193
  • Edited 12:22pm Oct 28, 2009 11:05am | Edited 12:22pm
BTW...a (daily) close about 1.0711 is good.

EDIT: Sorry, forgot to add the 1.081x line as a level to look for.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #194
  • Oct 28, 2009 1:14pm Oct 28, 2009 1:14pm
If the Mark Carney and the Canadian government can keep pushing the CAD down to a 1.10xx exchange rate, they will get back all the exporters and manufacturers votes that they lost during the first part of October. If they can get it back up to 1.15, they may even get some Liberal politicians switch over to the Conservate party.

You have to have thick skin, deep pockets and a short term memory to be a politician (and a forex trader).
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #195
  • Oct 28, 2009 1:23pm Oct 28, 2009 1:23pm
Quoting gun2_85
according to my indicator on weekly chart, ucad going to continue the downmove
As of today, your indicator has been invalidated. But the week is not over yet.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #196
  • Edited 12:16pm Oct 29, 2009 9:48am | Edited 12:16pm
went long @ 1.07

EDIT- close long for 10 pips, went short (recorrected my position)

Broke the trendline, watching it trend down.
lowest draw down possible please.
  • #197
  • Oct 29, 2009 3:25pm Oct 29, 2009 3:25pm
Hmm...I am stuck in a long position. Although I think it will be profitable by tomorrow reason the down trendline is acting as support(think its 1.0650 on Daily) The up trendline is also intact. Would appreciate your outlook people.

Regards

Neo
  • #198
  • Oct 30, 2009 12:17pm Oct 30, 2009 12:17pm
"What's moving the markets?" is a CNNMoney.com headline. Answer: Reality is moving the market. I'm trading according to reality and my plan. All is well in the world (if you're shorting the CAD).
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #199
  • Nov 3, 2009 9:17am Nov 3, 2009 9:17am
After closing my EURUSD overnight shorts (160 pips, thank you), I decided to come back here and look at my charts. 1.0769 is the bottom of my lower upward trend lines. I may consider another long here. I have 2 open longs right now, both from the 1.0695 area.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #200
  • Nov 3, 2009 9:44am Nov 3, 2009 9:44am
Oil down...world markets down...TSX only market in green today (why? I dunno). CAD up.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
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