Trade what you see NOT what you expect

Hi guys,

was the outside bar on 15min at 6:45 GMT tradeable?
Except from the long at close (range BO) up to the 62EMA (1hr) and then short.

Any ideas how to get it from the bottom (1.6305)?

At least I saw - and traded - the 62EMA short :-).

Cheers

Thomas

I hope so, because I traded it It was trading away from the MA's, it might have been better to wait until it retraced to the 10 MA, but I'm basically only looking for around 20 pips a trade (like Ken, I can't get scalping out of my blood yet) and I got 20 on that move and again when it retraced. I am amazed just how many 10/20 pip trades you can grab just by trading the basic setups on both GU and EJ.

As far as the bottom goes, the 2.30 GMT bar couldn't close below the last low and beat the high of the previous, the 4hr on my terminal at the time was looking good for a double bottom (although we should really wait until its closed for confirmation) the only thing that put me off of going in at the start of the 2:45 am candle was the 35/50 cross so I waited to see if it would play out first. Went in when it came back up at the same price, 1.6320. I have a bullish outlook today because of how my daily chart finished last night (attached), not set in stone of course, but keeping my eye on it, after all, the daily chart is the reason I was looking for shorts on Friday

Is this the bar you are asking about?

If so, I don't know about entry at 1.6305 but you could have had a safe entry at the 50% retracement level 1.6335

I don't think this is an entry based on this system though

Will be looking at this area for a short signal if price continues on its run today.

Hi everyone,

Good to see this thread is still alive and kicking, and getting new participants.

Been away for a while on a job, but I'm back now, so hope to be more active.

Price so often comes back to test round numbers after it punches through it seems you can buy or sell and grab pips either way. I got in late here but just grabbed some from 1.6412 long

Next s/r on my 15m @ 1.6467 nice spot to reverse have to See!!

Good morning/afternoon, fellows

I thought you guys and gals may want to read this, it gives us a little something to think about!!

Market Directions October 20, 2009 Forward to a friendThe Dollar Coin-Two Sides of the Reserve DollarIn all the anguish over the recent decline of the dollar two simple facts seem to have become misplaced.

One: a very large amount of the day to day positions in the currency markets and thus the negative movement in the dollar is the result of traders chasing profits. It is obvious but worthwhile to state again that these are trading markets and trading markets are all about trading profits. Currency markets are not designed, at least in their day to day valuation, to make judgments about the viability of a currency’s reserve status.

Two: as soon as the Fed signals that its easy money policy is at an end a great percentage of those traders who are now avid dollar shorts will reverse and become with equal sincerity dollar longs. New punters who see profit potential in long dollar positions will soon join the ex-shorts as the Fed begins a rate cycle that might last two years and bring the Fed Funds rate back to historical norms. The dollar will follow the funds rate higher.

The world’s disenchantment with the dollar as reserve currency is new. Only eight months ago the dollar was all the rage. The world fled to the dollar and dollar assets as global financial markets imploded. If another crisis struck tomorrow it is unlikely that the world seek financial refuge in a different national script and government? The current trading equation of risk and reward is a dollar based concept; as risk rises so does the value of the dollar. This logic remains true. If this aspect of the dollar’s place in the world economic system has not really changed what then are the motivations and logic of the critics of the dollar’s reserve status?

There are four different complaints about the dollar’s reserve status. The first two are topical, that is they offer the critics a convenient way to advance their own political but not necessarily financial plans; and the second two are substantive. That is they raise issues that over time could and probably will diminish dollar’s reserve role in the world economy.

1) The dollar offers substantial benefits to the US Government by allowing it to fund its deficits in its own currency. This provides the Federal Government with a fiscal support that gives its political agenda a much wider reach than if Washington had to depend solely on its own resources. For political adverrsaries curtailing the dollar’s reserve role would limit American freedom of international action. A country that cannot pay for its endeavors must choose between its commitments. How long will China pay for the US Navy’s Pacific Fleet to patrol the Taiwan Strait?

2) Dollar resentment is recent and it is much closer tied to the decline of the currency since March than any realistic change its reserve status. Where were the complainers when the dollar was rising from July to march?


3) US Federal deficits, real and projected, are a new and damaging entry in the reserve equation. How long will America’s competitors continue to lend Washington money? The answer is straightforward—as long as it is in their interest to do so and no longer.

4) The creation of the Euro and its performance in this crisis has focused the minds of the world’s money managers and bankers—there is an alternative to the dollar. Though the euro has drawbacks as a reserve currency, primarily its fragmented and limited bond markets, its efficiency as a medium of exchange and its ability to retain value as defended by the European Central Bank are real and strong.

None of this means that the dollar is not gradually weakening and that it may be replaced or at least supplemented as the world’s reserve currency.

But we must be careful to differentiate between short term positioning in the currency markets that will likely be reversed by a change in Fed policy, and the long term and gradual trend down in the dollar as world reserve currency. Indeed the term itself is misnomer. There is no reserve currency created by a global bank and backed but its reserves. The dollar is the world’s most common medium of exchange and store of value because it has evolved into that role. For most of the past half century the American economy dominated world finances and trade. The ascendancy of the dollar is a product of that position in the global economy. That dominance has been slipping for at least a generation, since the first Arab oil embargo, but over the past decade it has become increasingly obvious.

The question for currency traders is not will the Fed engineer a recovery in the dollar when it begins to increase interest rates and will that quiet doubts about the dollar’s reserve role. The Fed can and the doubts will recede.

The question is how far will the dollar fall before this happens and will that fall have permanently damaged the world’s faith in its reserve currency?

Hey bkg #3 is what scares me the most, our massive debt is just plain scary.The dollar being supplemented or replaced is not far fetched at all, cant imagine how much its value would plummet if that happened

Here comes the news spread widening

Good Afternoon All

Hi davids, good morning. Wow got out of that went long at the 200 on the 15m with slippage got screwed then price came back I am out at b/e and happy

Price came back tested the round number as usual then headed down the 1hr ma's r all right there dont think I could F this up any more if I tried.

Another example of a round number plus the ma's man this is my game and I got nadda time for a timeout this is such a humbling sport damn!!!

Yes the more you start really using the MA's and price Action to trade the more you will see that almost always they line up with areas other indicators or entries would point to anyway. Because in the true sense of it all every trader is trying to enter trades good also.. But as you drop more and more of the old ways and notice more of this style is when it starts getting easier and easier.. Good Luck Ken

I added a PPA line to your chart turned right on it..

Don't it p**s you off when it looks so obvious after the event:

I am still polishing the crystal ball so I can see this in advance....

Pretty quiet in here... Hope there are some people southbound on the mistress with me. I boarded late at 135.53 but still managing to grab some nice pips so far. Good luck to all.

The Captain

Hi Captain,

I'm with you on that one!

Looks like this flag is breakin, just got up would like to have caught this at the 50ma test but will look for a seat see how the round number treats price I'll scale down to 15m chart