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  • #156,081
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:17am Oct 27, 2009 4:17am
Quoting toshi
No No No. That's exactly what I try to help people understand:

Don't put the house on any one trade. But I know what you mean and Thanks.


That trade though was combination of statistical probability (daily 38) and a little dumb luck .
hey I had the best day of the year with my short call collecting 160 pips of the move but, I nearly closed +20 because I had done well scalping asia and london and wanted to close out happy with what I had for the day. I dont know why I didnt exactly but dumb luck is a good a desscription as any
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #156,082
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:20am Oct 27, 2009 4:20am
Quoting egypt
hii guys
good morning every buddy
i have good chance want share with all in gbpusd its going to to retest Resistance again
long from 1.6350 sl 1.6280 tp 1.6470
and good entry in last candle h4
I Did It As Below :
Ep : 1.6350 , Tp : 1.6650 , Sl : 1.6200 !
  • #156,083
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:22am Oct 27, 2009 4:22am
Quoting toshi
Dont laugh, but another 100 pips lower (about 14770) in my best estimation.
It's a 50 retracement of the October range since the NFP reaction low

When will the 4 hours begin ?

I think New york will answer that one.

Upside risk is also about 100 pips,

So right now the RR isn't lopsided in my favor so I'm taking a break
and looking at the YEN.. I see about a half a Yen sitting in the corner
waiting to get picked up and put in pocket........9148 or so.....
My thinking is NY and London sold this down together, London will sell to the pickup point so they can launch this puppy back up together. Or so I hope because even 50 points down from here I'm happy as lark, booking profits except for my short at 1.5 and walking away for awhile.
  • #156,084
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:24am Oct 27, 2009 4:24am
We nearly back where we started this morning..
  • #156,085
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:28am Oct 27, 2009 4:28am
USD/Chf hit a big # it may now fall.and you know how the Eur/USD is almost a mirror
1.0200 on the nose
  • #156,086
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:28am Oct 27, 2009 4:28am
Quoting toshi
Dont laugh, but another 100 pips lower (about 14770) in my best estimation.
It's a 50 retracement of the October range since the NFP reaction low

When will the 4 hours begin ?

I think New york will answer that one.

Upside risk is also about 100 pips (14975).

So right now the RR isn't lopsided in my favor so I'm taking a break
and looking at the YEN.. I see about a half a Yen sitting in the corner
waiting to get picked up and put in pocket........9148 or so.....

Overall, I actually like Dollar yen here but I'd like it much better from
the...
Didnt do too bad for a run out of the blue on the long side. Waiting for directions now as well. Could be either way
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #156,087
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:30am Oct 27, 2009 4:30am
Quoting Che4x
I Did It As Below :
Ep : 1.6350 , Tp : 1.6650 , Sl : 1.6200 !
we in the same way
you are looking for bigger profit
i will move sl under my first tp
i hope go 6650 its be amazing profit and more 6829 fibo 50%
good trade and day
  • #156,088
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:31am Oct 27, 2009 4:31am
Quoting carimakan
We nearly back where we started this morning..

Good Observation

That is not by accident.


Here is the map I'm using right now. October 2009.

Beats the crap out of me which one, but one of these circles should get filled today.

Don't forget to google "gravity"
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  • #156,089
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:41am Oct 27, 2009 4:41am
Quoting egypt
we in the same way
you are looking for bigger profit
i will move sl under my first tp
i hope go 6650 its be amazing profit
good trade and day
Da !
And If E/U Keeps On Going A little More Down , I Will Do The same On It From 4850 Targetting 5055 !
  • #156,090
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:45am Oct 27, 2009 4:45am
Quoting Che4x
Da !
And If E/U Keeps On Going A little More Down , I Will Do The same On It From 4850 Targetting 5055 !

like u wait for more down to get good entry
  • #156,091
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:45am Oct 27, 2009 4:45am
good work toshi!

the upper circle is a area where he had to go already yesterday after touching and breaking 200ema 1H!
There was no rebound after that yesterday,but he will go back to there!
Anyway if we do a new low bevore or starting up from the nights low!
  • #156,092
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:51am Oct 27, 2009 4:51am
Quoting majorusa
I am tempting another long. Entered 1.48486. SL 1.48200. The reason behind is that at 1.48437 is a daily support line. Plus the convergence on the stochs at 15 min. Plus bullish engulfing pattern. Also the price fell to fast to much. We might see some profit taking and this will move the price up. My 1st target 1.4951. If it will not succeed another 28 pips loss. But still good risk reward ratio.
The long was closed at 1.49043 due to trailing stop that I input after passing the 23 fib of the previous move. In all not bad - 60.6 pips. I missed the short yesterday but I am happy with what the market gives me. It was a very good risk reward trade.
If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #156,093
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:51am Oct 27, 2009 4:51am
Quoting lenzhofer68
good work toshi!

the upper circle is a area where he had to go already yesterday after touching and breaking 200ema 1H!
There was no rebound after that yesterday,but he will go back to there!
Anyway if we do a new low bevore or starting up from the nights low!

You're too kind....

I wouldn't want anybody to get the idea that I actually know what I'm doing

Surely I'll blow it out my ass then.......
  • #156,094
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:08am Oct 27, 2009 5:08am
sl hit 92,6
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #156,095
  • Edited 5:22am Oct 27, 2009 5:11am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting toshi
Chicky will tell you. When you get a setup that good
and the only way it can go is the way of your position,
AND you put on major size, it will fail you almost every time.

Put on one or two and it will keep on paying the bills,
month after month. Go crazy and it will break a man.

I guess it's just Murphy's Law.
Sorry, I was away.

Honestly speaking Toshi and many others on these forums are far more skilled traders than me. Since I am not a very good trader, try to play safe (that doesn't mean unnecessary risk aversion) but like Toshi indicated:

1. Keeping a escape route in the trade plan. No escape no trade (that is why I call myself a thief)

2. Enter only at locations that offer potential for a BE (or near to) if trade fails

3. Waiting for the desired set-up (I miss a number of obvious opportunities, too many)

4. KEEPING POSITION SIZES AS SMALL AS POSSIBLE (ridiculously small).

5. Heavy positions are bound to fail, not because of the market, but because of traders psychology. It is like jumping into a sea full of sharks, and then trying to get out as soon as possible at whatever cost.

Yesterday, I read some of my old trading notes, surprised to learn that ALL three major losses in my trading career had absolutely nothing to do with technical, money management or psychological aspects of trading. They were pure administrative i.e. 1) not knowing how significant is the impact of sudden change in brokers' spreads, 2) Not knowing NFP time and date at one occassion.

In all these cases, I was carrying positions far beyond my normal risk appetite.

I paid the fee, but want to save others from a payment.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #156,096
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:12am Oct 27, 2009 5:12am
Quoting toshi
Good Observation

That is not by accident.


Here is the map I'm using right now. October 2009.

Beats the crap out of me which one, but one of these circles should get filled today.

Don't forget to google "gravity"
I'll take your bet. I say today is going to be a frustrating day for both parties. Because nothing will happen. Maybe tomorrow we'll see one of your circles filled. Or...maybe both.
  • #156,097
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:14am Oct 27, 2009 5:14am
safe @ be, TP 4950
  • #156,098
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:41am Oct 27, 2009 5:41am
Some unverified rumors that Androulla Vassiliou the EU Commissioner for Health said that this winter up to 30% of the population could be infected with swine flu virus. YES! you heard it right, thirty percent, one out of three Europeans could get infected.

This guy is either an idiot or corrupted by pharmaceutical companies.
  • #156,099
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:43am Oct 27, 2009 5:43am
Quoting TheFisherman
Some unverified rumors that Androulla Vassiliou the EU Commissioner for Health said that this winter up to 30% of the population could be infected with swine flu virus. YES! you heard it right, thirty percent, one out of three Europeans could get infected.

This guy is either an idiot or corrupted by pharmaceutical companies.
Of course, it's in the vaccine.
  • #156,100
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:56am Oct 27, 2009 5:56am
Quoting Chicky
1. Keeping a escape route in the trade plan. No escape no trade (that is why I call myself a thief)

2. Enter only at locations that offer potential for a BE (or near to) if trade fails

3. Waiting for the desired set-up (I miss a number of obvious opportunities, too many)

4. KEEPING POSITION SIZES AS SMALL AS POSSIBLE (ridiculously small).

5. Heavy positions are bound to fail, not because of the market, but because of traders psychology. It is like jumping into a sea full of sharks, and then trying to get out as soon as possible at...
My escape is my SL. If I find an acceptable SL I get an entry. So I agree with you for 1. 2. 3. & 5. But for 4. "as small as possible" (well, maybe it's a very good advice for beginners) I prefer a % between 2 and 5% with a max at 20% in intraday.
Anyway now I'm long since 4875 with a first SL at 4861 and now this SL is at 4883 ...
"I will walk before they make me run" K.Richards
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