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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #2,781
  • Oct 26, 2009 5:04pm Oct 26, 2009 5:04pm
Quoting el grande
Cable Probabilities

Longer term still UP for me.

EG
hey my man, looks like a good call, we will see.

I definitely also would say long on a long term chart, considering to A-B-C formation shown on a daily in the last couple of months. But with the US stocks wave count, euro, and ending diagonal on dollar index chart...hmmm I am not so sure... However, I will be looking for short cable if we get some larger pull-back here..

Sincerely,

Grega H.
  • #2,782
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:58am Oct 27, 2009 10:58am
Quoting lancelot41
hey my man, looks like a good call, we will see.

I definitely also would say long on a long term chart, considering to A-B-C formation shown on a daily in the last couple of months. But with the US stocks wave count, euro, and ending diagonal on dollar index chart...hmmm I am not so sure... However, I will be looking for short cable if we get some larger pull-back here..

Sincerely,

Grega H.
Hi Grega.


It has been quite a while.... You seem to be doing very well with your news and commentaries/analysis.

If you say that the Dollar index is forming an ending diagonal, Cable then could be inline to develop a possible ending diagonal as in the options I laid out earlier.

EG
  • #2,783
  • Edited 1:05pm Oct 27, 2009 11:51am | Edited 1:05pm
If what I considered as a 5 wave structure on the 1hr chart is the w1 of w5 of a higher degree, Then w2 retracement of w1 would be around 61.8% and very likely a zigzag.

But if we draw a potential channel, price to touch the bottom of the channel lies on the 1.6060.

As a guide, w2 :

1. usually retraces w1 by 61.8%
2. more often structure is a zigzag
3. w2 usually retraces w1 towards the end of the internal w2 of the same degree w1.
4. if a zigzag, it would usually contain price within a channel.

EG
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  • #2,784
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:00pm Oct 27, 2009 1:00pm
el grande... I think a nice short opportunity is about to come in GBPUSD ... what ya think?
I will post my updated chart in a minute
  • #2,785
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:03pm Oct 27, 2009 1:03pm
Here is the chart
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  • #2,786
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:48pm Oct 27, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting pipPuller
Here is the chart

Yes pipPuller....

If Cable stays within the downward channel as in my chart, that short opportunity will be GREAT.

Have been stuck with this trade the last 12 hours.

EG
  • #2,787
  • Edited 10:40pm Oct 27, 2009 10:29pm | Edited 10:40pm
Cable.

Watching the 4hr chart to see where a trendline break out will occur.

Price in a 15 min chart still inside a downward andrews pitchfork

EG
  • #2,788
  • Oct 27, 2009 11:43pm Oct 27, 2009 11:43pm
I think downward channel is not of much importance. After last impulsive action we will have an ABC, and right now we have A and B. I shorted cable yesterday at the end of the NewYork session. One short at the 1.6388 and other at 1.64 ... and I think today's london session will be a good payoff. I am already 50 pips plus in my short ... and I expect another 150 pips down move.


Quoting el grande
Yes pipPuller....

If Cable stays within the downward channel as in my chart, that short opportunity will be GREAT.

Have been stuck with this trade the last 12 hours.

EG
  • #2,789
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:06am Oct 28, 2009 12:06am
Quoting pipPuller
I think downward channel is not of much importance. After last impulsive action we will have an ABC, and right now we have A and B. I shorted cable yesterday at the end of the NewYork session. One short at the 1.6388 and other at 1.64 ... and I think today's london session will be a good payoff. I am already 50 pips plus in my short ... and I expect another 150 pips down move.

I hope you are right.

But the way price has been hugging that dowmward trend line on the 30min and the 4hr chart seem to indicate that the B is not yet finished.

EG
  • #2,790
  • Edited 12:45am Oct 28, 2009 12:30am | Edited 12:45am
Just incase price breaks out of the downward trendline on the hourly chart which may be forming a triangle B of a bigger B wave of w2.... My first target would be 1.6471 which is 50% retrace of themove down from 1.6693.

Already have 3 touches so waiting for d and e before a breakout.

But if it breaks out to the downside, then that would be great as that would be C.

Note also that 30min and 15min stochstics ave been crawling the oversold levels and being down for quite sometime, there is still that probability for it to climb like it did last night .

Anyway, better for me to wait for that breakout.

EG
  • #2,791
  • Edited 1:46am Oct 28, 2009 1:34am | Edited 1:46am
I just saw the list of news for later.

important news will be due later which would result to large moves.

In that case, I would think that price will most likely be moving up till London session so that what ever the news will be later, price will be able to complete the wave 2 down to 1.6100 - 1.6060

B of zigzag wave 2 can be in the range of 38-79% retrace of A. So there is still room for price to go up for B.

EG

Let us see what happens during Frankfurt opening hour and if it is a counter trend to the London session. That is for price to come down early in frankfurt open and only to be turned around at London session for a move up.

Finally the wave C after the news in the US session.
  • #2,792
  • Oct 28, 2009 5:30am Oct 28, 2009 5:30am
EW may be incorporated with Median Line Analysis
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  • #2,793
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:38pm Oct 28, 2009 12:38pm
Cable breached the downward channel and made a deeper Pullback .

Yet proceeded to go higher and not develop into the wave C that we were hoping it would.

Personally, I would assume that it will continue for the finishing of the B before it comes down for the C we have been waiting for.

It is so Ironic that while we think this will develop into a C it just does the opposite. and while we sit on our hands trying to think what went wrong..... then it just might drop down for the C soon.

That is why it is important to wait for the RIGHT Breakout. it may not give you the 100% assurance of being correct. But it increases your chances of being in the right direction.

There are also different types of BREAKOUTS and here is where tons of chart watching hours I think would benefit you.

OR was I just lucky to have entered a LONG trade when I waited for a pullback after that breakout to the upside of the downward trendline?

EG
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  • #2,794
  • Oct 28, 2009 1:48pm Oct 28, 2009 1:48pm
I do not think what happend in cable today was just out of surprise. I cleared my shorts, when I saw overlapping waves forming in down swing.
Here is my updated wave count of GBPUSD.
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  • #2,795
  • Oct 28, 2009 1:53pm Oct 28, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting pipPuller
I do not think what happend in cable today was just out of surprise. I cleared my shorts, when I saw overlapping waves forming in down swing.
Here is my updated wave count of GBPUSD.

'Am not loading my shorts yet as I do not see any Divergence on the 15min chart.

A new high on the 15min chart may still be in the offing.

EG
  • #2,796
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:07pm Oct 28, 2009 2:07pm
Yes, I totally agree. On smaller timeframes I cannot count five downwards. The recent upswing more looks like a double zigzag formation.
  • #2,797
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:10pm Oct 28, 2009 2:10pm
for me....

Cable will go up for as long as the Blue Support trendline holds.

Price is still within that upward channel.

Targets would be :

1.6479
1.6585

Unless.... This assumed wave 2 turns out to be an EXPANDED FLATas suggested by the Median Line Strategy.


EG
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  • #2,798
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:14am Oct 29, 2009 8:14am
Cable Potential

On the 1hr chart, Cable has potential to go up 1.6600 within the range of the Weekly R1.

DR2 is below it.

If it makes its reversal at that level, then I would be looking at
FE 100 @ 1.6157
FE 161.8 @ 1.5883

Levels here are merely Guides which more often than not, I do not wait to be reached. I exit my trades at a profit without going all the way.

Either I do not want to get stuck on my computer for long periods at a time waiting for price to reach the target or because price has deviated from what I had thought it would do.

Besides, taking sure profits even in small amounts seem to work better and profitable for me.

EG
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  • #2,799
  • Edited 3:24pm Oct 29, 2009 2:25pm | Edited 3:24pm
hhhhhmmmmmm 1.6600 was achieved ( 1.6603 )

Let us see where the breakout occurs

Pattern wise, this shouil breakout to the upside.

But, Divergence-wise or the lack of it on the 1hr, Price would retrace 50% of its last move up.

Targetting 1.6470 which is the 50% anf the first level of potential support (former resistance level )



EG

Make sure to wait for the breakout because that may still have a 1% risk of failure but would usually have a better chance.
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  • #2,800
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:13pm Oct 29, 2009 4:13pm
Notes and Charts
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