Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1347 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #26,921
  • Oct 25, 2009 12:53am Oct 25, 2009 12:53am
Quoting The Captain
Hello everyone.. I posted this before but it ended up getting buried pretty quick while waiting to get moderated due to being a new member....
Welcome to the thread Captain
  • #26,922
  • Oct 25, 2009 9:35am Oct 25, 2009 9:35am
Here is a chart I did I while back that shows a stop and a reentry..
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,923
  • Oct 25, 2009 10:43am Oct 25, 2009 10:43am
Guarnteed Profits Covering
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,924
  • Oct 25, 2009 11:31am Oct 25, 2009 11:31am
Now some charts
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,925
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:26pm Oct 25, 2009 1:26pm
Evening all!

Backed out of trading for a while to regroup as it were. I realised I wasnt comfortable with short term day trading on a management level. Too much else getting in the way!!!!!

Anyway, have been looking for an entry on the weekly, and think I may well have found it!

Using the principles of 'Keep it simple stupid' and 'Trade what you see and not what you expect' The bearish pin sat on top of last weeks candle looks good enough to eat.

Is this too simplistic an approach to short using this alone? When this little fella has turned up previously, the trend has turned down (see week 38 and 50 2008, and week 38 2009).

Your thoughts on this would bgratefully appreciated.

M
  • #26,926
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:31pm Oct 25, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting MartinC
Evening all!

Backed out of trading for a while to regroup as it were. I realised I wasnt comfortable with short term day trading on a management level. Too much else getting in the way!!!!!

Anyway, have been looking for an entry on the weekly, and think I may well have found it!

Using the principles of 'Keep it simple stupid' and 'Trade what you see and not what you expect' The bearish pin sat on top of last weeks candle looks good enough to eat.

Is this too simplistic an approach to short using this alone? When this little fella has turned...
I am not a long term trader. But I know what your talking about is what the James 16 thread is all about. ( Might check it out) It is also a entry on these thread. The difference being we look at the higher time frames for those signals but then go to the lower time charts to get a better entry and get our trades covered quicker. Trading off high time frames only, the stops are pretty big too. So you have to adjust your trade amount to accept the risk within your Money Managment..

Good Luck You have to find what you are comfortable with.. Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,927
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:59pm Oct 25, 2009 1:59pm
How covering can save you from a loss chart 3
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,928
  • Oct 25, 2009 2:33pm Oct 25, 2009 2:33pm
Profit guarntees Summary
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,929
  • Oct 25, 2009 3:41pm Oct 25, 2009 3:41pm
Quote
I am not a long term trader. But I know what your talking about is what the James 16 thread is all about. ( Might check it out) It is also a entry on these thread. The difference being we look at the higher time frames for those signals but then go to the lower time charts to get a better entry and get our trades covered quicker. Trading off high time frames only, the stops are pretty big too. So you have to adjust your trade amount to accept the risk within your Money Managment..

Good Luck You have to find what you are comfortable with.. Ken

Thanks for the advice Ken. I was going to use a very long s/l on this position and let it run until I see the possible reversal. Might just take a peak at the D1 and H4 to fine tune it slightly!!
  • #26,930
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:56pm Oct 25, 2009 7:56pm
Hi Ken,

Missed the drop on Friday but had a long after the breakout from the Asian range (pullback to 10EMA, that formed the dragon fly - trade away from the averages - thanks to you).

Was there any sign, apart from the hangman on daily (price went 50 pips above it) and the shooting star on 15min for the drop? The shooting star on the 1hr was taken out by close.

The 1.6660 level seemed to be broken...

Cheers Thomas

Quoting KENNETH lEE
stops chart 1
  • #26,931
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:04pm Oct 25, 2009 8:04pm
Short the mistress @ 138.00. Anyone with me?
Cap
  • #26,932
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:07pm Oct 25, 2009 8:07pm
Hi Ken,

A couple of days ago I had a couple of PPA lines from different TFs in the same area. I had the PPA line from the 15min at 6443, 1hr was at 6433 and 4hr was at 6422. Which TF are you taking the PPA lines from? The one you're trading (15min)?

What if price closes right on a PPA (MBL) line? Saw this a couple of times. Is it to be considered broken then?
Sometimes price closes above and the next candle closes again below (tweezer/flat tops). Would this mean a second entry if stopped out?

Cheers

Thomas

Quoting KENNETH lEE
Here is a chart I did I while back that shows a stop and a reentry..
  • #26,933
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:23pm Oct 25, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting The Captain
Short the mistress @ 138.00. Anyone with me?
Not sure I'd go short just yet myself.
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  • #26,934
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:32pm Oct 25, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting tdeu
Hi Ken,

Missed the drop on Friday but had a long after the breakout from the Asian range (pullback to 10EMA, that formed the dragon fly - trade away from the averages - thanks to you).

Was there any sign, apart from the hangman on daily (price went 50 pips above it) and the shooting star on 15min for the drop? The shooting star on the 1hr was taken out by close.

The 1.6660 level seemed to be broken...

Cheers Thomas
Yes your right, Some people I was chating with were also leaning towards longs. But this is one thing about this startegy that makes it great. The only real signal was on the 15 min. Actually the strongest signal was the candle before the Shooting star. A dragonfly doji. Then another short signal of the shooting star.. either was good to take.

If you took those to enter they got you in before any of the other time frames even hinted for a entry. Sometimes we don't have a higher time frame to confirm a move. You have to remember also that before something can show up on even the one hour chart that four candles have printed on the 15 Min.

So it can be well worth taking a chance on a good signal even just the 15 min as it could be the beggining of a great move as this was. I kne a few good trader that didn't take it because of no confirmation and some that did just because of the 15 signals especially the dragonfly doji..

But remmebe don't risk much on unconfirmed moves like those.. As i showed in the stops section if your stop was to tight you could have got stopped out but a reentry after the shooting star closed below the first wick should have been taken..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,935
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:39pm Oct 25, 2009 8:39pm
Quoting tdeu
Hi Ken,

A couple of days ago I had a couple of PPA lines from different TFs in the same area. I had the PPA line from the 15min at 6443, 1hr was at 6433 and 4hr was at 6422. Which TF are you taking the PPA lines from? The one you're trading (15min)?

What if price closes right on a PPA (MBL) line? Saw this a couple of times. Is it to be considered broken then?
Sometimes price closes above and the next candle closes again below (tweezer/flat tops). Would this mean a second entry if stopped out?

Cheers

Thomas
The lines I keep on my 15 min chart are all S/R lines or PPA lines that I took off the 4 hr chart. That doesn't mean if I see a action accuring at a area just on the 15 or 1 hr I won't use it as confirmation of a move. It isn't where the line comes from it is how the Price Action is at the line. The lines are nothing but a way for you to know to pay attention near them.

Look to the left on the E/J nd you will see PPA on the 15 where it turned back up near 137.73 from watching this I took a long there.

I consider broken if price does one of two things a straight break would need the price to move about 25 to 35 pips past the line . Or a retest which is a close across the line then price comes back and doesn't cross back but bounces off. But even if the price does close 25 to 35 pips past it can and does reterst the break which is always the preffered break. Because you want to get a retest over with as it will sooner or later.

Hope this helps Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,936
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:41pm Oct 25, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting The Captain
Short the mistress @ 138.00. Anyone with me?

yep took it short then went long at the 137.73 area off Price Action to the left on the 15 min.. Good trade on the short .. Hoe you took some profit..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,937
  • Oct 25, 2009 9:02pm Oct 25, 2009 9:02pm
Wow nice trade Ken! Long off of 73 is a brilliant trade. (and one I missed) LOL!

( and who you callin' hoe ) LOL
  • #26,938
  • Oct 25, 2009 9:05pm Oct 25, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
yep took it short then went long at the 137.73 area off Price Action to the left on the 15 min.. Good trade on the short .. Hoe you took some profit..
Good job Ken. Judging by all your readings, you are mastering this system. Went short again at 138.15 after the barrage of spinning top/inverted hammers on the M15. What's your take on those?
Cap
  • #26,939
  • Oct 25, 2009 9:43pm Oct 25, 2009 9:43pm
My current take on EJ. I could be wrong and reserve the right to grovel .
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  • #26,940
  • Oct 25, 2009 9:52pm Oct 25, 2009 9:52pm
This is, of course, a cable thread so I will be changing my focus for the thread.
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