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  • #155,481
  • Edited 8:12pm Oct 24, 2009 8:09pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting mfoste1
Hey guys hope everyone had a good friday night. Just my view right now after close on friday.

Early next week I think this lower channel line on my chart will be broken to set the stage for a very short lived dollar rally, where ideally I want to be a buyer around 1.4944 and 1.4827. If 1.4827 is broken, downnnn we go, however it should provide very strong support though.
I've been eying 1.48 from 1.5 for some time, my opinion is that if we approach that level as stocks rebound from a drop I will rethink my medium term positions. If equities are diving at the time we reach that support, look out below I think it will be sliced diced and left for dead. Gold and Oil should be afforded at least some leeway in being driven by demand although between the two I think oil is over priced. I'm watching equities like a hawk, even a small slip of support can snowball the bubble back to where it came from.

Edit: still trying to remember the last time this market got to S3 and gave it any respect LOL.
  • #155,482
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:03pm Oct 24, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting toshi
Larseg,

How's it going ? What do you think about this Euro at 150?

I've spoken to Europeans lately who don't trade and of course, they don't
seem to care one way or another from day to day, and even prefer a larger
purchasing power when buying or traveling abroad.

But overall, I don't think the average chap living in Europe who doesn't
trade regularly perceives price data they way we do here.

I guess we're obsessed.......

Hi Toshi, I am still Long EURUSD

This is my view on things:
In the stock market there are too many waiting for the big drop (to many with short positions already) This is important to notice as the recent rally can be either a huge suckers rally (short covering) or a real one. I believe it is a combination of suckers and 80% of the companies delivering better results, this will continue again next week as there are more results to come... Dow above 10k.

Oil should meet some resistance here mirroring resistance on the EURO.

1.5 huge psychological barrier...Good probability trades

I believe this is a very good place to set a long with SL100/TP 4-500...
But I have to keep my long with the TP I placed last week (sticking to the plan which is backtested, always the best solution).


If you are long or short you could "easy" harvest 4-500 pips if you are right in the first place...

P.S. As Trading801 directed me to some news about Trichet last week. I got a bad feeling, he is negative to the strong EUR...
And when he asked JPY to keep a less volatile currency in 2007 they actually did that... (random or luck?)...

Lots of short positions kept over the week-end..

Anyway if you pick the right way next week with a 100 pips or so, I would suggest to buy/sell more on pullback...


Interesting week to come!
  • #155,483
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:06pm Oct 24, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting acumen
no clue.

we are so oversold at these levels that a move down seems more likely.

however... i've been saying that since 1.4... so who knows.

i'll let price and the news dictate my trades.

Mike

Yes, its hard when we are in "new" areas

But a good probability trade from here


Still long here
  • #155,484
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:09pm Oct 24, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting Chicky
Basically I am frustrated because the way I read the charts cannot find bear signs (more than 100 pips) everything appears bulliish. Either I badly need a week off, or dollar devaluation is a hoax...............

Yes, If my long goes in on Monday or Tuesday then I will leave it for the week..
The question is, how much rally is there left in DOW and OIL?

I saw Oanda had majority of short positions open for this weekend... But again why make it more complicated than it is...

GL
  • #155,485
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:19pm Oct 24, 2009 9:19pm
in this thread when a lot of people say long,the prize will go short,i see that
every time,when 9 posts long and one short,the prize go short,is a good indicator,you can try
but i love this thread,because i am learning with toshi,gato,acumen,xoden,etc... they speak not only of the pair and his
comments help me,is my favorite thread,Thanks guys
  • #155,486
  • Oct 24, 2009 10:21pm Oct 24, 2009 10:21pm
Quoting chaosforex
in this thread when a lot of people say long,the prize will go short,i see that
every time,when 9 posts long and one short,the prize go short,is a good indicator,you can try
but i love this thread,because i am learning with toshi,gato,acumen,xoden,etc...
they speak not only of the pair and his comments help me,is my favorite thread,Thanks guys

Chaos,

I'm flattered to be mentioned in such good company.

If it's true you feel you are learning and all this turns out to be
of some benefit to you or for anyone else, then it's worth the effort.

I feel confident in saying that's the reason Gator and Acumen and X.oden put their time
into this forum, that is, in order for others to benefit from their experience,
and perhaps steer someone toward becoming an independent thinker,
as opposed to just another sheep. This pays a dividend in the future that you'll learn about eventually.

As for me, I'm just hoping someone will buy me a beer.......selfish I know.....
Sometimes I'm such a whore.........



You're too kind.
  • #155,487
  • Edited Oct 25, 2009 2:14am Oct 24, 2009 11:56pm | Edited Oct 25, 2009 2:14am
Quoting Larseg
Yes, If my long goes in on Monday or Tuesday then I will leave it for the week..
The question is, how much rally is there left in DOW and OIL?

I saw Oanda had majority of short positions open for this weekend... But again why make it more complicated than it is...

GL
Leave long for the week ? I doubt it will work. We have not strong bear sign yet ,may be true but bull still there .As I look strong bear in gbpusd in higher tf like daily & trend change may be the result ,eurusd should follow today or tomorrow .I feel a spike will happen to 1.5132/50 for clear many shorters sl already in or planning before the start of the great bear or a real attempt ,like gbpusd.I will try shorts for week to keep with a sl for sure at that level if not reach then below 148.48.

Anyway do long carefully & within the limit of tolerance. here is EU chart & prediction this week.

add: another chart for possible short term PA.

fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #155,488
  • Oct 25, 2009 2:04am Oct 25, 2009 2:04am
What do you all think GfK German Consumer Climate tomorrow?
  • #155,489
  • Oct 25, 2009 2:18am Oct 25, 2009 2:18am
I looked over some recent posts including Chicky's snowstorm of TA scenarios. In this game anything is possible. Therefore, I don't think it wse to keep large positions over the weekend, infact, I don't think it wise to keep large positions with more than 10% of your equity. And then you must be willing to wait with your hands in your pockets for a couple of months if things go wrong. (Even large moves generally retrace)

For months people have been calling EU shorts and spending all their effort trying to finance them by trading out of the hole. When you fight against the current all the time, it is hard to make money.

All I use for chart analysis is OHLC charts and I run these on different platforms and for different time scales. (The different results can be startling) At this time I can justify EU at anywhere from 1.37-1.61 by Feb/2010.

That said, I have gone back to psycology, and decided that I don't expect any large moves downside in the nearterm. There is the possibility of fundamental effects causing some damage because we have not gone into hyperdrive yet, That can only happen after EG parity or after we make a new high. At that point, I wouldn't short at any price.

For the next week, I think the Euro will consolidate while the Dollar and the Pound sort themselves out.

You can prove anything with a formula, the hard part is putting it in a bank..
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #155,490
  • Oct 25, 2009 4:17am Oct 25, 2009 4:17am
Quoting cphcphcph
What do you all think GfK German Consumer Climate tomorrow?
Lets say positive as predicted & what the difference? may go few pips up or down for timebeing but will not change the whole economy- will be visible through past history of PA ,doing good or bad & how far .specialist should knew things not me though.

Perhaps a big bubble has developed & almost ready to burst & automatically all news will be negative ,simply bad than previous /false feeling of secuirity to insecuirity again for the fall .
See the visual impression by HA ,still ok UP.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #155,491
  • Oct 25, 2009 4:48am Oct 25, 2009 4:48am
All I know is EUR failed repeatedly to hold above 1.50. Thats a very bearish sign to me. Its a strong psych and tech level, a break should have seen the pair move higher very quickly. There were moves down to 1.4825 during the week and we all know there are plenty of bears around. Although we dont have the trendline break to confirm a turn, I do see some tell tale signs in the daily chart to suggest that the long move is exhausting.
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  • #155,492
  • Oct 25, 2009 5:08am Oct 25, 2009 5:08am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
All I know is EUR failed repeatedly to hold above 1.50.
Really? I have a weekly close above that level.
  • #155,493
  • Oct 25, 2009 5:24am Oct 25, 2009 5:24am
Quoting Xaron
Really? I have a weekly close above that level.
Well done xaron on winning fxstreet challenge I was following your progress congrats!

Your right a weekly close above!

I have been buying the dips on this pair since the 5th of this month and currently have 2 longs still running!

Maybe we might get a trend reversal but if and when that happens I will start shorting there is no point in trying to anticipate the top of a major bull run.. jmho.

Temps
  • #155,494
  • Oct 25, 2009 5:33am Oct 25, 2009 5:33am
Quoting Xaron
Really? I have a weekly close above that level.
oops! - your correct. It is slightly above. The fact that it didnt run after the break is still telling though. No doubt its to early to call a top but I do like to get in early
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  • #155,495
  • Oct 25, 2009 6:43am Oct 25, 2009 6:43am
Quoting Xaron
Really? I have a weekly close above that level.

YES, trend is up.. But.. it doesn't go up in a very sharp straight line!

I believe euro is exhausted and got to retract from where it reached!

it can go down to 14800 or 14700 without breaking the trend it is in, and without signaling a trend reversals, just a retracement and a breath taking for the bulls.. it always happens!

Friday candle shows some bears taking a good role, and price is very close to break the TL supporting the price since a good time now.. when euro wants to retract 200-300 pips, it's good to try to catch em, and not just buy the dips.. imho!
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #155,496
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:18am Oct 25, 2009 7:18am
tomorrow im going for long position@ 1.4993 tp:1.5020...sl:1.4950
What do you all think?
  • #155,497
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:22am Oct 25, 2009 7:22am
Quoting fayz0r
YES, trend is up.. But.. it doesn't go up in a very sharp straight line!

I believe euro is exhausted and got to retract from where it reached!

it can go down to 14800 or 14700 without breaking the trend it is in, and without signaling a trend reversals, just a retracement and a breath taking for the bulls.. it always happens!

Friday candle shows some bears taking a good role, and price is very close to break the TL supporting the price since a good time now.. when euro wants to retract 200-300 pips, it's good to try to catch em, and...
Absolutely! Ive taken a small short position with a stop above 1.5070. Ive risked .5% on this position. It could easily take out my stop early next week - so what?, a good 200 - 300 pip retracement is just as likely without breaking the uptrend. Even at only 50/50 probability, a risk:reward of 1:2 is more than acceptable. Its not about top picking or being right
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  • #155,498
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:32am Oct 25, 2009 7:32am
Inserted Video
  • #155,499
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:55am Oct 25, 2009 7:55am
Quoting cphcphcph
tomorrow im going for long position@ 1.4993 tp:1.5020...sl:1.4950
What do you all think?
It can work or not. To me such a sl doesn't make any sense but I trade a bit "differently".
  • #155,500
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:16am Oct 25, 2009 8:16am
Quoting Xaron
It can work or not. To me such a sl doesn't make any sense but I trade a bit "differently".
True it would be a clear 4h lower trend line breakout of approx 35 pips

149.70 might be a better sl for such a small gain..imo
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