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  • #155,461
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:37am Oct 24, 2009 8:37am
Quoting jackdan
This is what worries me so much too, when everything looks soo bullish, all
indis are showing up, when all signs go same way, than, we are facing
a very strong possibility of a bubble.

my 2 cents..
Actually everyone and his grandma seem to be short in this pair at least in the retail market.

I'll continue to buy every dip I can get and might play here and there a small contrarian short.
  • #155,462
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:40am Oct 24, 2009 8:40am
Quoting Chicky
Basically I am frustrated because the way I read the charts cannot find bear signs (more than 100 pips) everything appears bulliish. Either I badly need a week off, or dollar devaluation is a hoax...............
this thing is irrationally bullish.

however... when there's blood in the streets... buy... or sell... or wait for the market to offer better clues.

m
  • #155,463
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:42am Oct 24, 2009 8:42am
Quoting jackdan
This is what worries me so much too, when everything looks soo bullish, all
indis are showing up, when all signs go same way, than, we are facing
a very strong possibility of a bubble.

my 2 cents..
That "Quantum Trading Theory" appeals. Just like what laws of physics apply to objects may or may not apply to tiny particles. Maybe what seems true at smaller number levels is void for bigger round numbers. ...................... but the issue is that I am an accountant and not a scientist.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #155,464
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:43am Oct 24, 2009 8:43am
Quoting Xaron
Actually everyone and his grandma seem to be short in this pair at least in the retail market.

I'll continue to buy every dip I can get and might play here and there a small contrarian short.

keep those stops in place.

we are at bubble status and we still may move north but the drop could be a big one.

the pound isn't going north any time soon.
  • #155,465
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:47am Oct 24, 2009 8:47am
Quoting Chicky
Basically I am frustrated because the way I read the charts cannot find bear signs (more than 100 pips) everything appears bulliish. Either I badly need a week off, or dollar devaluation is a hoax...............
No worries, bears are mostly trying to read between the lines and looking for things that may be "off" yet on the charts. Correlations are way off. Years of Growth have been added to the charts with no change in the real economy.

We'll either end up with bulls blood or egg on our faces, but crazy we are not.

We've been devaluing since 1.2350 is 1.5 not devalued enough? Like is 1.5 normal and ok somehow? Maybe, but 1.6 was hit 4500 points higher on the Dow. Jumping the devaluation gun maybe?
  • #155,466
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:54am Oct 24, 2009 8:54am
Quoting acumen
keep those stops in place.

we are at bubble status and we still may move north but the drop could be a big one.

the pound isn't going north any time soon.
Good idea from this discussion.

I probably open contrary positions. Longs with tps and sls but shorts without them - then wait and see how much they squeeze for me or from me.

Now, could someone kindly help me how to do it? and the levels?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #155,467
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:00am Oct 24, 2009 9:00am
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  • #155,468
  • Oct 24, 2009 10:06am Oct 24, 2009 10:06am
Quoting SerpentDove
I remember shorting this thing every 30 pips above 1.3500 with 1.6000 red alert for a margin call. At that time it unexpectedly went 100 pips beyond target price- giving me some worries until it finally showed a reasonable retrace. My last counter-trend trade.

This time it would be much easier. All I am waiting for is to let the institutional traders spoil their this weekend fine-tuning strategies on the basis of market reaction to GBP episode of Friday. I think it was well received.

Let's see what we get out of magicians' hats on Monday.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #155,469
  • Oct 24, 2009 11:22am Oct 24, 2009 11:22am
Please can someone answer my 2 questions:

1) is Euro economy more strong then US economy? I read reports which says Euro economy is more stronger then US economy which will keep e/u pair bullish in near future.

2) If dow/US stock market falls, why e/u pair falls?
  • #155,470
  • Edited 11:44am Oct 24, 2009 11:32am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting kingfisher
Please can someone answer my 2 questions:

1) is Euro economy more strong then US economy? I read reports which says Euro economy is more stronger then US economy which will keep e/u pair bullish in near future.

2) If dow/US stock market falls, why e/u pair falls?
hmmm export .. lack of tourism comes to mind. when you get beyond the basics of supply and demand. its a speculative bubble. now if you can figure out where that starts and stops with certainty you are a very rich man. take out the gov help and where are we then. gov help is not gonna last forever and may not even help as uk is showing. if you drop a trillian bucks in the system it will move it. at what point does it settle out and equalise. we will find out in the next year or so. nothing is a sure thing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #155,471
  • Oct 24, 2009 12:07pm Oct 24, 2009 12:07pm
"Food for thought" for bears. A level to watch.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=243
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #155,472
  • Oct 24, 2009 12:42pm Oct 24, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
hmmm export .. lack of tourism comes to mind.
Yes, Gator is right on this, I have never visit Europe, and I will not go if I see the xchange as it is right now. Here at my country we use US$. But well it also depends on other factors, I think here in Forex we should be extremely careful and always use SL, we can see charts, news everything, but we are always 50% sure of what it will happen and 50% wrong.

my 2 cents.

  • #155,473
  • Oct 24, 2009 2:23pm Oct 24, 2009 2:23pm
Hey guys hope everyone had a good friday night. Just my view right now after close on friday.

I believe that we are still trending very strongly to 1.5283. As indicated by the daily and weekly, this has become very evident to the bulls. In my hourly chart here I think these levels will be very significant to the bull market movers. My gut instinct tells me that near term, the pair is due for a small correction. PA kept getting rejected hard at 1.5050 because this is rumored to be the spot of barrier options. Early next week I think this lower channel line on my chart will be broken to set the stage for a very short lived dollar rally, where ideally I want to be a buyer around 1.4944 and 1.4827. If 1.4827 is broken, downnnn we go, however it should provide very strong support though. If anyone has feedback on my chart or view please feel free to comment!

"You can't control the markets, but you can control yourself."
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  • #155,474
  • Oct 24, 2009 2:28pm Oct 24, 2009 2:28pm
Quote
The GDP numbers for the third quarter being released this coming Thursday should show that the US has emerged with gusto from the most severe recession of the post World War II era. We expect growth at an annual rate of 3¾% (pages 5-7).

What effect this information can have on e/u pair?

On thursday US 3 Q GDP figure is released and i have seen the madness in FX market regarding gdp/usd pair on Friday when UK GDP numbers were released.

I am going to liquidate my long positions at break even or for small pips and then wait for thursday US gdp figures.
  • #155,475
  • Oct 24, 2009 2:30pm Oct 24, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting mfoste1
Hey guys hope everyone had a good friday night. Just my view right now after close on friday.

I believe that we are still trending very strongly to 1.5283. As indicated by the daily and weekly, this has become very evident to the bulls. In my hourly chart here I think these levels will be very significant to the bull market movers. My gut instinct tells me that near term, the pair is due for a small correction. PA kept getting rejected hard at 1.5050 because this is rumored to be the spot of barrier options. Early next week I think this...
So is there any way whatsoever to determine where the knock-in/knock-out barriers would be? Or is that all proprietary info?
  • #155,476
  • Oct 24, 2009 2:34pm Oct 24, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting kingfisher
Please can someone answer my 2 questions:

1) is Euro economy more strong then US economy? I read reports which says Euro economy is more stronger then US economy which will keep e/u pair bullish in near future.

2) If dow/US stock market falls, why e/u pair falls?

1) No, but their currency is less stigmatized at the moment.

2) The classic explanation: when there is a general attitude of "risk aversion" in the markets, money flows from "less risky" securities, like U.S. Treasury bonds, into riskier securities, like stocks. So, when the stock markets are up, globally, money is being moved from a position of USD strength to a position of EUR strength.

However, such correlations are never written in stone. Recently, there has been strong demand for both stocks and Treasuries. But the USD has gone down anyway.

If you really wanted to be circumspect about it, you could run correlations on the instruments in question - in this case, the E/U vs the DJIA or the S&P - you can do it in MS Excel - use any amount of data and any timestep you like - then you can prove what correlation actually exists. Or, of course, you can overlay & eyeball the charts. I have heard that the stocks-E/U correlation has been getting weaker
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #155,477
  • Oct 24, 2009 2:37pm Oct 24, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting Protogenos
So is there any way whatsoever to determine where the knock-in/knock-out barriers would be? Or is that all proprietary info?
http://www.forexlive.com/index.php?s...ptions+barrier

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/op...qm_symbol=^XDE


The chart doesn't lie.....
  • #155,478
  • Edited 2:53pm Oct 24, 2009 2:51pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting mfoste1
http://www.forexlive.com/index.php?s...ptions+barrier

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/op...qm_symbol=^XDE


The chart doesn't lie.....
I agree with the barrier options explanations, but my understanding is that a barrier option is different from a plain vanilla like the link above points to. So if the strike is 1.5050 there would be a different knock-in/knock-out barrier higher than this that is required to activate/deactivate the option. Say at 1.5100 or so.

I've never seen any data on barrier options, so my guess is that volume/amounts/or expirys on these instruments doesn't exist outside of the issuing brokerage. Just wondering if this was a correct assumption.
  • #155,479
  • Oct 24, 2009 3:00pm Oct 24, 2009 3:00pm
Quote
1) No, but their currency is less stigmatized at the moment.

2) The classic explanation: when there is a general attitude of "risk aversion" in the markets, money flows from "less risky" securities, like U.S. Treasury bonds, into riskier securities, like stocks. So, when the stock markets are up, globally, money is being moved from a position of USD strength to a position of EUR strength.

However, such correlations are never written in stone. Recently, there has been strong demand for both stocks and Treasuries. But the USD has gone down anyway....

Thanks for a great and simple explanation.
  • #155,480
  • Oct 24, 2009 3:24pm Oct 24, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting Protogenos
I agree with the barrier options explanations, but my understanding is that a barrier option is different from a plain vanilla like the link above points to. So if the strike is 1.5050 there would be a different knock-in/knock-out barrier higher than this that is required to activate/deactivate the option. Say at 1.5100 or so.

I've never seen any data on barrier options, so my guess is that volume/amounts/or expirys on these instruments doesn't exist outside of the issuing brokerage. Just wondering if this was a correct assumption.
I think they have some similarities to vanilla. I think they have cheaper premiums. For example there might have been barrier options with strike price of 1.4950 and 1.5050 might have been the knock out price where these 1.4950 calls become voided. Could be a reason for protecting the 5050 level.
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