USD/CAD Trading Room

Its gonna bounce its just doing a shake out.

Long a small position @ 1.0299 since Thursday night. Holding it over the weekend with stop at breakeven.

Still Sinking !

But today put me back in action.

Still holding thinking there may be more.

waited this long.

I took various long trades during this down trend which started Octotber 4. I took a couple of longs at 1.025x. Then held them up to 1.04xx. Did not cash them out 'cause I was expecting a bigger retrace. So back down to 1.03xx. When we hit 1.055x yesterday, I cashed out all my green lots, but still have a few red ones. Made some good pips with my short term longs. As much as the media and community is predicting parity, I will hold my positions during this drawdown. I'm not gonna realize a loss (unless the US$ reaches $0.85CAD. Then we're in deep doo-doo).

Hi all,

I noticed in the last days the (apparent) reversal of the trend in this pair.

What happened? I see oil around 80, fundamentaly seems like nothing has changed, but since the 14th this pair reversed and stalled. Seing USD still weak with the majors(except JPY) i can't find a reasonable explanation

Did I miss anything? I don't trade this pair, but I watch it often and i'm a bit curious!

Any hint is very welcome!

We are all wondering why the CAD hasn't benefited from all events this week. It looks like a situation where we have a time lag in logical expectations. Overall sentiment favors continuation of trend to parity. Tonights European session and friday's US will be interesting.

I'm short at 1.0455 risking 100 pips.

Another interesting pair is USD/MXN currently under 13.000. Should see climb up in short term.

Good luck.

I trade this pair from time to time, mostly swing trades based on economics and news. My only explanation is that the economy up here is still quite SHYTE, and investors are smelling something in the air.

Over the last few weeks, our minority government has spoken about the size of the deficit they were going to run, how the money would stimulate the economy and how long it would be before this country returned to a surplus. Then there was a threat of a 'non-confidence vote' which never materialized. So the CAD keeps getting stronger against the weakening Greenback.

Problem is...our government predicted a recovery based on 1.12, or at least a stable rate between 1.10 and 1.15. At 1.02-05 we are digging a deeper deficit hole. At parity we're sinking FAST. Our exporters and manufacturers are getting killed (and this scenario is playing out in many other countries as well). My guess is that someone (government) is doing something in the background to try to weaken the CAD without openly admitting it. That's what I've seen in the last week or so. Oil going up...CAD going down?? I agree this doesn't make sense.

I've heard many times that the strong CAD is good for imports and keeps our costs down. Uhhhh, HELLO ??!!! We only have 30+ million people up here. There are 300+ million in the US. Exporting is the way to go ! We have enough natural resources to choke a horse ! And the USA is our closest and greatest trading partner. We're better off becoming the 52nd state (Porto Rico is 51st )

But I digress. There's only so much a country/government can do when the US is trying their hardest, and succeeding, at keeping the greenback low, low, low. Until the greenback stabalizes and increases strength, the CAD's strength will only hurt itself and this country.

I trade this pair very often as well..

Yes weird things have been happening, as dollar posting all time lows, cad was posting higher lows and now at a crucial price level. From the looks of it, I too thought that theres gotta be some intervention going on. I've asked some wealth management firms and they went from selling rallies in the cad to buying dips.

I think that may be the best idea until the lows are taken out, is to buy dips.. plus there are signs of the US strengthening (maybe temporarily) since massive CB buying had taken place when dollar was in a free fall, and dollar is already strengthened against the jpy and in the usd/cad, its just posted lows against the euro and aussie which are driven alot by speculation as well. Aussie is part of the carry trade, and aussie looking to raise interest rates even further soon, I would say the better trade may be longing aussie/cad pair just based on interest rate differential..

Normally, I would buy the dips too on this pair, as I am pro-USD versus CAD. However. I've bought enough dips on the way down during this recent down trend. I've got enough, thanx. Currently, I am buying the dips, but only scalping 20-50 pips a day. It has been pretty good lately. Probably more luck than smarts. My long term hope is back up to +1.10xx. PLEASE don't follow me. Follow your charts. I'm following my hopes and dreams as a Canadian company with its biggest customers based in the US.

Well don't that exemplify the Corporate Canadian.
I think the Gov. is with you, as much as the CAD gov can assist, but the Tin Men are up against some real ba$tards that will, after making them dig it, put them in their grave.

1.04xx soon. Very soon

Added as an after thought.

hey bemac, I understand the 1.04 part, since theres heavy resistance at 1.0530 and 1.06 but are you saying that you're biased to the short side on this pair short to medium term outlook?

Thanks Duce, megamo and B, that shed some light on the "mystery"

I trade with ACM. About 10 minutes ago, the price dropped down to 0.9218xx and then popped back up to where it is now.

Is this a glitch? Does anyone elses trading platform show this spike down and up?

Thank god I don't have any SLs set, 'cause if this is not a glitch, then everyone just got their SLs wiped out.

The dropped I referred to in my previous post happened at 22:23:26 seconds CET (or 5:23 PM EST - my time).

Again, any explanations / thoughts? Very curious blip.

according to my indicator on weekly chart, ucad going to continue the downmove

Which 'indicator' are you looking at? My weekly charts gives me a range of 1.0321 to 1.0711, and the we're bouncing up, not down.

Can you post something?

1.0602 is my 50% fibo line. However, my longer term 23.5% fibo is up at 1.0711. If we can make it up there before month's end, I will be extremely happy. But right now, I'm playing my short term plan and it's working out beautifully.

Sometimes, good things do happen to those who wait (and wait....and wait....and wait.... )

anyone have a recent opinion on the usdcad pair?

I think it is back into its previous down channel, with a bias toward the lower end of the channel since previously it was trending on the upper end of the channel and taking into account the recent break of the channel to the downside.

On the flip side recent daily price action leads me to believe it will test the channel resistance to the upside soon and then head lower.

Any comments would be appreciated. Any Pattern analysis help would be appreciated since I see no discernible patterns.

Thanks. oh btw I am long since 1.0430s so if this up trend is going to end then I would like to close out soon.