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CHF/JPY

  • #1
  • First Post: May 20, 2008 12:20am May 20, 2008 12:20am
I've found the Swiss Yen to be a useful confirmation tool when discerning
the likely direction of the carry trades. Since they are both funding currencies
and the pair tends to range quite a bit and it doesn't have the following nor
the participation like that of G/J or E/J or even A/J, the market sort of
"lets it do it's thing". 4HR charts paint a decent map.

It does carve out a trend of some sort over time and I've found it to be
fairly easy to get a handle on, even when the other carrys are acting undecided.

Has anyone spent and serious time looking at the C/J and what have you noticed ?
  • #2
  • May 20, 2008 3:44am May 20, 2008 3:44am
Quoting toshi
I've found the Swiss Yen to be a useful confirmation tool when discerning
the likely direction of the carry trades. Since they are both funding currencies
and the pair tends to range quite a bit and it doesn't have the following nor
the participation like that of G/J or E/J or even A/J, the market sort of
"lets it do it's thing". 4HR charts paint a decent map.

It does carve out a trend of some sort over time and I've found it to be
fairly easy to get a handle on, even when the other carrys are acting undecided.

Has anyone spent and serious time looking at the C/J and what have you noticed ?
more or less what you said -- it is a bit sensible to Swiss data (the latest descent started when a swiss bank had a big writedown), but it usually mostly ranges, which makes for good mean-reverting trades.
  • #3
  • Oct 23, 2009 1:33am Oct 23, 2009 1:33am
Still Bullish !
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  • #4
  • Oct 23, 2009 1:53pm Oct 23, 2009 1:53pm
I agree. Weekly and Monthly looking good.
  • #5
  • Oct 24, 2009 12:27pm Oct 24, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting toshi
I've found the Swiss Yen to be a useful confirmation tool when discerning
the likely direction of the carry trades. Since they are both funding currencies
and the pair tends to range quite a bit and it doesn't have the following nor
the participation like that of G/J or E/J or even A/J, the market sort of
"lets it do it's thing". 4HR charts paint a decent map.

It does carve out a trend of some sort over time and I've found it to be
fairly easy to get a handle on, even when the other carrys are acting undecided.

Has anyone spent and serious...
Thanks Toshi for the thread of this interesting pair , never traded before though.Taking a look it is very similar to the eurusd & gbpusd pair ( currency chart shown ) . But not understand how it can be used as a confirmation tool ,rather it reacts more closely the eurusd but little late( can be used eurusd as a confirmation tool for the next movement in chfjpy?? ) .

As I see in this pair the last impulse up as a result of previous bull failure followed by having a support at some lower level & finally success . yet to prove the final break up at the top of weekly channel 91.91 as daily already broken up temporarily perhaps & apparently governing by weekly channel .So upside it test 91.91 to validate real resume bull .In lower tf also shows some possibilities of retracements as eurusd posing /gbpusd already so may back to 90.55 or even before or after to 88.90 testing the top 91.91.
Perhaps it can turn for another big down to 86 for bull only after failure reapeatedly breaking the top.
Will see next week how it reacts with time & know more about this pair.
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #6
  • Edited 2:00am Oct 26, 2009 1:19am | Edited 2:00am
First trade open long in this pair at 91.18 for tp 91.91 as previous analysis ,sl already placed +1pip from lower tf , weekly ,daily,h4,h1 candle all bear though.Very conservative play in my new pair to see.Not know how fast it can suck.

some variety of dianosaurus in smaller tf , should have an elongated neck to the size of the body.
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #7
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:40am Oct 27, 2009 12:40am
8920 might be a better place to take another stab at it for a return to 90.

I like the Idea of selling a yen and/or buying a yen cross about 1% lower from here.
Not too crazy about having long a swiss franc. But against the yen, it could still work.
  • #8
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:15am Oct 27, 2009 1:15am
Quoting toshi
8920 might be a better place to take another stab at it for a return to 90.

I like the Idea of selling a yen and/or buying a yen cross about 1% lower from here.
Not too crazy about having long a swiss franc. But against the yen, it could still work.
Thanks , not dealing yen cosses so seriously but here I am on buy as with most trades with eurusd.Buy some first to sell more next.expecting bear continuation timebeing.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #9
  • Jun 25, 2010 11:37am Jun 25, 2010 11:37am
Sell Point !


Good Luck !


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R & S , That Is All !...
  • #10
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:57pm Jun 25, 2010 12:57pm
Gone Short @ 81.77

Let's See...

R & S , That Is All !...
  • #11
  • Jul 16, 2010 9:21am Jul 16, 2010 9:21am
It's a BAT !


Good Luck !


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R & S , That Is All !...
  • #12
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:02am Jul 16, 2010 10:02am
It is breaking (in the daily) the bear flag that was formed in the last two months. Projection is around 71JPY. May retest the broken trend line. Let's see what happens...

MarketInvestor
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  • #13
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:43am Jul 28, 2010 2:43am
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R & S , That Is All !...
  • #14
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:45am Aug 2, 2010 5:45am
Opened a short position at 83,028jpy, because of the following factors:

- Major trend still down.
- Has broken its trendline and retested it.
- Having a hard time with the 61% fibonaci retracement.
- Momentum has turned negative (last time momentum turned negative prices fell around 13%).

Lets see how it goes...

Cheers

MarketInvestor
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  • #15
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:55am Aug 2, 2010 5:55am
Hello MarketInvest,

Thanks for the chart.
Can you please let me know what momentum indicator do you use?

Thanks,
  • #16
  • Aug 10, 2010 1:25am Aug 10, 2010 1:25am
I'm updating because we're trading for the first time below the MA50 since this wave down began. Lets see if it closes there. About 155 pips in the trade so far.

Here's the chart.

Cheers

MarketInvestor
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  • #17
  • Aug 12, 2010 6:17am Aug 12, 2010 6:17am
CHFJPY is correcting from yesterdays fall and MA50 seems to be rolling over to the downside. It might test the MA50 again.

(for the trades fell free to visit the blog)

Cheers

MarketInvestor
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  • #18
  • Aug 14, 2010 12:55am Aug 14, 2010 12:55am
My prediction for CHF/JPY next week is down. I'm a weekly/daily chart ichimoku trader, and on my daily chart analysis for the pair all signs are pointing bearish.

TL resistance at 82.60-70 area, followed by 100 day MA at 82.95-83.05 should be difficult to break, especially with the negative economic sentiment as it is. Initial target for me will be the 79.00 area.

Bearish signs are: on the daily chart the price is below the cloud, bearish tenkan-sen/kijun-sen cross, chinkou span is below past PA, cloud is negative, daily MACD pointing down. Also, the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart has successfully rejected the price about 4 times over the past few days and has proven to be a tough resistance zone as well.

My SL will be in the 83.50 area, depending on exactly when I get into the trade on Monday.

What do you guys think?
  • #19
  • Aug 14, 2010 3:45am Aug 14, 2010 3:45am
My bais is to the downside, you got RN 82.00, which was broken and we now testing it. See the first two yellow arrow on my chart, we have formed a similar pattern on Support. T/P 80.80....Cheers and nice weekend.


Quoting sat0pi
My prediction for CHF/JPY next week is down. I'm a weekly/daily chart ichimoku trader, and on my daily chart analysis for the pair all signs are pointing bearish.

TL resistance at 82.60-70 area, followed by 100 day MA at 82.95-83.05 should be difficult to break, especially with the negative economic sentiment as it is. Initial target for me will be the 79.00 area.

Bearish signs are: on the daily chart the price is below the cloud, bearish tenkan-sen/kijun-sen cross, chinkou span is below past PA, cloud is negative, daily MACD pointing down. Also,...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20
  • Aug 14, 2010 4:21am Aug 14, 2010 4:21am
Hi. My view is that we might test again the 62% retracement of the last wave down. This retracement level of 82,50jpy was tested twice before(brown arrows). MA50 is also a resistance (still haven't closed above it).

Lets see what happens.

Cheers

MarketInvestor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy13Agosto2010.jpg Size: 118 KB
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