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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #13,621
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:12am Oct 21, 2009 3:12am
Quoting TheArcher
my stop loss is at 90.82

let's see how tough this fish is ... will it pierce the ceiling ?
What do you consider to be the ceiling? We are still 10 pips below the open, hovering near the pivot, and in the top of the ichimoku cloud. MACD has crossed down, albiet at a very nonvolatile rate (hence the limited price action) and stochastics are beginning to breach overbought territory, with no major move to the upside past significant opens. I already hit the ceiling today i believe @ 90.87, and ricocheted downward, with a subsequent attempt failing as well. All signs still point to the downtrend in my mind.

note: above applies to 1hr period.
  • #13,622
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:17am Oct 21, 2009 3:17am
ok , got to go for a break

will check on it later

whatever will be will be

  • #13,623
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:23am Oct 21, 2009 3:23am
Quoting rainingpips
What do you consider to be the ceiling?
note: above applies to 1hr period.
oh, i meant my stop loss at 90.82 ... just playing with the imagery of a fish caught in a line and jumping above the water (entry price) ..and breaking of the line at 90.82 .hahaha !

seriously , still keeping in mind just like u , downtrend

will check on this later ...take care ..
  • #13,624
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:26am Oct 21, 2009 5:26am
Hi Guyz!!

Weekly, Daily & 4H are still very Bearish so i don't have any confidence in going LONG with this pair.

Just opened a Short position at 90.91
  • #13,625
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:19am Oct 21, 2009 10:19am
Quoting TheArcher
oh, i meant my stop loss at 90.82 ... just playing with the imagery of a fish caught in a line and jumping above the water (entry price) ..and breaking of the line at 90.82 .hahaha !

seriously , still keeping in mind just like u , downtrend

will check on this later ...take care ..

...the swordfish broke the line at 90.82

Mission Failed : -20pips
  • #13,626
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:23am Oct 21, 2009 10:23am
ok, i'm clearing my head and all charts and starting afresh for the next set-up ..
  • #13,627
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:44am Oct 21, 2009 10:44am
daily chart :

downward channel from april onwards, currently moving up towards the upper channel bouncing off 87.82 towards target 92.70 . notice the higher lows forming uptrend . macd going to cross zero line

1 hr chart:

upward channel formed from early october onwards

will keep look out for any 'juicy targets' to release arrows.

caveat emptor
  • #13,628
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:48am Oct 21, 2009 10:48am
I am long on uj at 90.8 with a TP of 92.5
  • #13,629
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:59pm Oct 21, 2009 3:59pm
This pair is acting strangely, as if it's being artificially propped up. Has anyone looked into Oct. 26 and timewave zero? This is the guy that used web bots to accurately predict the financial collapse to the day in 2008. Supposedly the 25-26th could possibly be another start of a collapse wave.
  • #13,630
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:45pm Oct 21, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting rainingpips
This pair is acting strangely, as if it's being artificially propped up. Has anyone looked into Oct. 26 and timewave zero? This is the guy that used web bots to accurately predict the financial collapse to the day in 2008. Supposedly the 25-26th could possibly be another start of a collapse wave.
as i've said earlier this pair has been bipolar for a few weeks now. All i know is longer term time charts still has this pair going down. We have to cross the 93-94 area to convince me this pair has turned bull.
  • #13,631
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:19pm Oct 21, 2009 5:19pm
What's so crazy about this pair guys? Suddenly I hear talk of artificially propped up and all this junk?

I explained my view NY close over 90.5 is bullish, and since then we have been making higher highs and higher lows on the charts (except for last nights high which was lower).

Here is my rudimentary D1 EW count (I am pretty sure it is correct though). Wave 5 of impulsive downmove completed, we are in the process of corrective upmove wave A up, followed by wave B down and wave C up. Then a new impulsive wave can begin, who knows whether it will be up or down at this point!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 31 KB


Trade with the waves and you will be fine. I am U/J short this morning off 90.997 SL 91.097 TP open but not looking for it to dip too low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ujm15.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #13,632
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:26pm Oct 21, 2009 5:26pm
Today I bailled out of my long positions, will give couple of days to see witch direction it gonna go. Thinking short but time will tell.
  • #13,633
  • Oct 21, 2009 7:08pm Oct 21, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting sinner-
What's so crazy about this pair guys? Suddenly I hear talk of artificially propped up and all this junk?

I explained my view NY close over 90.5 is bullish, and since then we have been making higher highs and higher lows on the charts (except for last nights high which was lower).

Here is my rudimentary D1 EW count (I am pretty sure it is correct though). Wave 5 of impulsive downmove completed, we are in the process of corrective upmove wave A up, followed by wave B down and wave C up. Then a new impulsive wave can begin, who knows whether it will...
you better get out. it looks like your sl will be hit soon. very tight stop.
  • #13,634
  • Oct 21, 2009 7:59pm Oct 21, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting sed34
you better get out. it looks like your sl will be hit soon. very tight stop.
Like I said, wasn't looking for it to dip very low, I got out on the bottom of that crazy M15 doji (which showed up as buyers on the M5) right before Nikkei opened.
  • #13,635
  • Oct 21, 2009 8:33pm Oct 21, 2009 8:33pm
I didn't mean to sound conspiratorial with the "propped up" market, but there has been past evidence of the FED and their open market operations artificially bolstering the currency. This is activity external to the free market volatility, and I consider it manipulation. I think we can all agree that the both the macroeconomic and macroeconomic signs for the dollar look bleak, and a sustained move to the upside in my mind is odd.
  • #13,636
  • Oct 21, 2009 8:48pm Oct 21, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting rainingpips
I didn't mean to sound conspiratorial with the "propped up" market, but there has been past evidence of the FED and their open market operations artificially bolstering the currency. This is activity external to the free market volatility, and I consider it manipulation. I think we can all agree that the both the macroeconomic and macroeconomic signs for the dollar look bleak, and a sustained move to the upside in my mind is odd.
If you are basing your thoughts on macro principles, then JPY is way way way worse off than USD. Aging population, crap demographics, strong currency in an export driven economy, 20+ years of deflation, no way to repay trillions of dollars in national debt, etc etc.
  • #13,637
  • Oct 21, 2009 9:25pm Oct 21, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting sinner-
If you are basing your thoughts on macro principles, then JPY is way way way worse off than USD. Aging population, crap demographics, strong currency in an export driven economy, 20+ years of deflation, no way to repay trillions of dollars in national debt, etc etc.
That wouldn't explain why the dollar has fallen from almost 124 to 9x.00s though. If you look at Japan's economy, they still export about $40 billion more than they import; while the U.S. imports about $820 billion more than they export. Minor countries have already fled from their dollar holdings, with only major NATO countries still clinging on; and even they are talking about liquidating them.

If you want to talk about national debt, then look no farther than the U.S. Sure Japan has a sizable debt, but they have legitimate capital and industrial resources to compensate and collateralize their loans. Their own economists predict the yen sinking into the 70-60 range by the end of next year.
  • #13,638
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:12pm Oct 21, 2009 10:12pm
i still have position sell at 89.50, can we still see that price?

please give me suggestion , i only can hold it till 92.50...

what should i do?

thanks
  • #13,639
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:16pm Oct 21, 2009 10:16pm
need some help with setting charts in MT4 :

how does one set-up the MACD histogram ?

currently, the default MACD is in histogram form: is there a way to change it into line and then set-up the macd histogram

appreciate all the help

thanks

  • #13,640
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:20pm Oct 21, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting TheArcher
need some help with setting charts in MT4 :

how does one set-up the MACD histogram ?

currently, the default MACD is in histogram form: is there a way to change it into line and then set-up the macd histogram

appreciate all the help

thanks

Use this MACD instead of the stock MT4 indicator. The stock MACD is faulty considering lag and how it calculates certain MAs; one of the by-products of not having the "line" that you can't see. Use this one instead. I also included a variety of the "true" MACD that is color coded for your viewing pleasure.

Good hunting.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD True.mq4   3 KB | 318 downloads
File Type: ex4 MACD True.ex4   3 KB | 259 downloads
File Type: ex4 MACD_ColorHist_Alert 12 26 9 LA .ex4   5 KB | 268 downloads
File Type: mq4 MACD_ColorHist_Alert 12 26 9 LA .mq4   5 KB | 354 downloads
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