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  • #154,801
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:51pm Oct 21, 2009 5:51pm
Quote
you smoking smoething or what?

"FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Euro has taken advantage of broad-based Dollar Weakness to rally from levels below 1.2500 in March to reach right below 1.5000 in October, and according to Ashraf Laidi, chief strategist at CMC markets, there is still room for further Euro climbing.

Dollar weakness will persist, according to Ladi who expects the Euro to cap at 1.5700/1.5800 by the end of the year: "Since the end of the summer, we have been calling for 1.5700 to happen by the end of the year. We mean that the highest...

I mean to say a guy working as a full time analyst. That Guy is a chief strategist who predicted in March that e/u will hit 1.5.

I didnt mean to say full report.
  • #154,802
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:51pm Oct 21, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting Gull
if counting waves does it for you.
Not really, I just like to know which wave we are in and trade accordingly.
  • #154,803
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:51pm Oct 21, 2009 5:51pm
One excellent article - one of the best I've seen lately....for those that can read french, though. Sorry, too long to translate. Maybe a google translate works...

http://www.lefigaro.fr/editos/2009/1...-economie-.php

google translate: http://translate.google.com/translat...istory_state0=
  • #154,804
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:52pm Oct 21, 2009 5:52pm
Quote
I like these targets not much faith in USD. at any retracement depending on USD I will probably stack more longs.

I am 2 days long on fibre. Never held for a month! Nothing against it with a strong trend! Plenty of pips.

New to this thread. Thanks for having me.

My pairs. Cable, Fibre, studying Dragon GBP/JPY.

Good luck all!

Welcome
  • #154,805
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:55pm Oct 21, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting sinner-
Not really, I just like to know which wave we are in and trade accordingly.
but your count and chart look crisp and clean.

If it's not your thing why use it at all?
Timing is everything
  • #154,806
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:58pm Oct 21, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting kingfisher
I mean to say a guy working as a full time analyst. That Guy is a chief strategist who predicted in March that e/u will hit 1.5.

I didnt mean to say full report.
Look: in april one of my friends who's just a regular guy said that E/U by the looks of thing could very well hit 2.0 by the end of the year but most likely will hit 1.5 I didn't believe him well. If I'd go back i'd still wouldn't believe. You'd find in the market all kinds of people. Statistically (and practically) for each guy saying long there will be one saying short. Just because it takes two guys of different view to make a trade: one buys what the other one sells. They are both in the business of making money.

The fact is that I can not be convinced of someone that can predict what's gonna happen in 6 months from now. I think the maximum lag time is around three months. To predict 6 months ahead means to discard any possible events happening in the next three months. This is called betting. There's a 50% chance you're right.
  • #154,807
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:02pm Oct 21, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting Gull
but your count and chart look crisp and clean.

If it's not your thing why use it at all?
It's just a function of using the Bill Williams oscillators that makes it very easy to know which wave you're in and I just take trades only in the direction of the wave we are going.

For example my notes indicate: "Wave 3 will always be the highest peak of the oscillator. In Wave 5 the oscillator is always divergent from price. During wave 4 the oscillator will pull back to or almost to the zero and cross to begin wave 5"

So there is no work to put the labels on for me and ZigZag does the wave line drawing. I am not interested in using it for targets, just as a general overall direction I should keep an eye out for on the daily.

In fact I don't even trade this pair much at the moment, mostly concentrating on becoming a full time E/J and U/J trader.
  • #154,808
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:02pm Oct 21, 2009 6:02pm
Seems like many of the traders here are expecting a retrace. But that big raft of Chinese econ "news" coming out in a few hours is likely to be all green pie in the sky & will move the Asian stock markets up. How hard the euro would follow is subject to debate. But a higher E/U high may be seen before manana.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #154,809
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:03pm Oct 21, 2009 6:03pm
continuation...

i'm not an analyst and not a specialist either. I don't make money out of predictions or even technical trading. I'm making money from what I like to call technical fundamentals of the market combined with probability theory for money management.

This is why I look at the market from a somewhat outsider point of view just to make time pass by. If the price goes up I win, if the price goes down, i still win. I don't care if it gets to 1.58 or 1.45.

BUT

It took from february to october for bulls to score this point. It's a long and exhausting run. give them a rest would you?
  • #154,810
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:03pm Oct 21, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Look: in april one of my friends who's just a regular guy said that E/U by the looks of thing could very well hit 2.0 by the end of the year but most likely will hit 1.5 I didn't believe him well. If I'd go back i'd still wouldn't believe. You'd find in the market all kinds of people. Statistically (and practically) for each guy saying long there will be one saying short. Just because it takes two guys of different view to make a trade: one buys what the other one sells. They are both in the business of making money.

The fact is that I can not...

I'd say he had a 80% chance of it hitting 1.50 but without the bottom being identified or atleast a pull back and nice entry where you could of used a 50 SL max before holding all the way up it's kinda pointless.

EU could go to 1.6000 so great go Long, but if your stop is at 1.4990 then your SL is likely to be hit.

Like on the GU thread, it's going to 1.5300, down 600pips and held most of the way up for 1000pips nearly most still repeating there shorts and getting burned alive.


Trade what's happening ignore the future there is no way to predict it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #154,811
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:10pm Oct 21, 2009 6:10pm
Quoting sinner-
It's just a function of using the Bill Williams oscillators that makes it very easy to know which wave you're in and I just take trades only in the direction of the wave we are going.

For example my notes indicate:...
don't give up
Timing is everything
  • #154,812
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:11pm Oct 21, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting Turveyd
I'd say he had a 80% chance of it hitting 1.50 but without the bottom being identified or atleast a pull back and nice entry where you could of used a 50 SL max before holding all the way up it's kinda pointless.
If he had 80% chance (real) for 1.5 when price was at 1.3 SL should have been at 1.25 for one lot entry (and would not have been hit). 50 is plain stupid for such long runs. It's equal to being sure you're losing money.

More likely an entry with as much as 4 lots and tighter SL (1.2825 ie) and gradual take profit
  • #154,813
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:11pm Oct 21, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting TheFisherman
....It took from february to october for bulls to score this point. It's a long and exhausting run. give them a rest would you?....
Let's massage his testicles.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #154,814
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:13pm Oct 21, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting sinner-
It's just a function of using the Bill Williams oscillators that makes it very easy to know which wave you're in and I just take trades only in the direction of the wave we are going.

For example my notes indicate: "Wave 3 will always be the highest peak of the oscillator. In Wave 5 the oscillator is always divergent from price. During wave 4 the oscillator will pull back to or almost to the zero and cross to begin wave 5"

So there is no work to put the labels on for me and ZigZag does the wave line drawing. I am not interested in using it...

i think EW is a load of sh*t. it can only be applied after the fact. Sure after a trend is over u can sit down and say yea theres the 5th final wave, but while in the trend do you really know where a price is going by basing your analysis on waves? no. I have rarely seen accurate EW predictions, if any...

-"You cant control the markets, but you can control yourself."
  • #154,815
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:14pm Oct 21, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting Chicky
Let's massage his testicles.
you long?
  • #154,816
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:17pm Oct 21, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting mfoste1
i think EW is a load of sh*t. it can only be applied after the fact. Sure after a trend is over u can sit down and say yea theres the 5th final wave, but while in the trend do you really know where a price is going by basing your analysis on waves? no. I have rarely seen accurate EW predictions, if any...

-"You cant control the markets, but you can control yourself."
Err so this would be the third time I've pointed out that I'm not using EW to predict where the price is going? I simply want to know which wave we are in, and trade in the direction of that wave. I don't know where it will go, or how long it will take to get there.

For example, if I was actually trading E/U now that I believe wave 5 is complete or near complete, I would be looking for signs of selling to take shorts from.
  • #154,817
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:17pm Oct 21, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting mfoste1
i think EW is a load of sh*t. it can only be applied after the fact. Sure after a trend is over u can sit down and say yea theres the 5th final wave, but while in the trend do you really know where a price is going by basing your analysis on waves? no. I have rarely seen accurate EW predictions, if any...

-"You cant control the markets, but you can control yourself."
I think EW is bullshit or bearpoo or whatever you wanna call it just by starting with the fundamentals of it: "a bull run is three waves and a bear run is two". Ooooh! That scares me, yeah! In forex there's no bear and bull in the first place. Bull for Euro on E/U is bear for USD so I see no reason why Euro should have three waves in place while USD only two. Pure crap.
  • #154,818
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:19pm Oct 21, 2009 6:19pm
crazy or not, right now all charts say purchase more eurusd at 1.5013 keep hedging shorts : 0
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #154,819
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:20pm Oct 21, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting Chicky
Let's massage his testicles.
i thought I was naughty!?
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #154,820
  • Oct 21, 2009 6:24pm Oct 21, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting TheFisherman
you long?
Just entered a eur/usd long.

There is so much in this shopping arcade at the moment that I feel short of money to buy everything, even one lot each.
The Thief of Wall Street
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