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Silent Service Method

  • #5,501
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:29pm Oct 20, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting InfinitySL
One word of caution on this one - they do release earnings 10/29, so this is always something to be mindful of w/ Stocks. I would argue it's a bit like taking a currency position ahead of NFP....

MO's earnings are 10/21, not sure if before/after the bell...
I am attaching this chart of said MCO.....it hasn't invalidated the pinbar....but I just don't like the look as much now.....seems like a big attempt to the upside.....no worries, there are other stocks out there.

Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mco.png Size: 101 KB
  • #5,502
  • Edited 4:17pm Oct 20, 2009 3:59pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting stefx
AUDCAD - 60th Anniversary

Price shot right up into the sky after the recent swings high was left behind. Trailed the stop now the second time in two days and the gap between the entry and the S/L nearly needs one H4 chart height now . The current stop is not as protective as the one before, but more comfortable for me.

Have a nice one, Stefan.
Hey Stefan,

Its insane how well your AUDCAD trade is making pips. It seems your patience is really paying off. Any news on your script by the way?

Greetings,

Mark
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,503
  • Oct 20, 2009 4:26pm Oct 20, 2009 4:26pm
Quoting stefx
You're completely right with your opinion about posting trades prior to the entry. You're getting answers and opinions created out of different trading styles, different risk appetite and different comfort zones. If you post a setup prior to the entry don't expect answers which are confirming your setup. Your trade setup maybe your trading styles winner and my trading styles loser but both, you and me where certain about the setup and what is most likely to happen. You can post setups and pick the answers which are COMPLETING your analysis. Incorporate...

I also find that my analysis of other people's setups is "colored" by any trades I'm in. So if somebody is going long the pound, and I'm short, I could find a ton of reasons why "their trade isn't a good setup".

But that doesn't make me right. Or wrong. Only price and exit will determine the winner, and it could even be both of us.
  • #5,504
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:29pm Oct 20, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting clockwork71
For example, you could say long CAD at such and such price, and I could say....
I know someone who did that...Not too long ago if I recall correctly!

In any case, on MCO it would seem that recent price action has invalidated that pin. I didn't take that trade but was certainly thinking about it!
  • #5,505
  • Oct 20, 2009 7:08pm Oct 20, 2009 7:08pm
Here's a short I took today......we will see how this goes.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: has1.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: has2.png Size: 135 KB
  • #5,506
  • Oct 21, 2009 12:51am Oct 21, 2009 12:51am
Quoting Noloqy
Hey Stefan,

Its insane how well your AUDCAD trade is making pips. It seems your patience is really paying off. Any news on your script by the way?

Greetings,

Mark
Hi.

Script seems to work fine and is accomplished with a nice pdf and will go online at the weekend.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,507
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:42am Oct 21, 2009 3:42am
A couple of interesting charts-

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chart...HsBDTBQgDNemQF - weekly

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chart...0G10fMQnFV3D88 - daily

Not sure if or how I can just display the charts instead of the link? I'll look into it.

Definitely at an interesting area for a decision, long or short?
  • #5,508
  • Oct 21, 2009 12:39pm Oct 21, 2009 12:39pm
Hi.

Sometimes price hits S&R to the pip. It surprised myself when I remembered that I've drawn those minor zones long time ago at a time when I wasn't at least aware that price should go up till here.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD-2009-10-21-19-37-55-Alpari-UK-Ltd.png Size: 44 KB


Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,509
  • Oct 21, 2009 1:16pm Oct 21, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting stefx
Hi.

Sometimes price hits S&R to the pip. It surprised myself when I remembered that I've drawn those minor zones long time ago at a time when I wasn't at least aware that price should go up till here.

Attachment

Stefan.
It is truly amazing once you take a look around, and understand that the market isn't random at all. Don't get me wrong - there are unexpected events that can be considered random....but in general, I don't see this as random at all.

Markets are about going from one s/r area to the next. It really can be that simple.

Chris
  • #5,510
  • Oct 21, 2009 1:39pm Oct 21, 2009 1:39pm
Just played around a little bit with MetaTrader5 beta and this version now has an execution type that a pending order is only placed if a given price is reached (buy/sell stop limit).
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,511
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:01pm Oct 21, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting stefx
Just played around a little bit with MetaTrader5 beta and this version now has an execution type that a pending order is only placed if a given price is reached (buy/sell stop limit).
Sort of an if A -> then do B kind of function?

That could come in handy for setting up orders for potential scenarios.
  • #5,512
  • Edited 10:02pm Oct 21, 2009 9:39pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here's a short I took today......we will see how this goes.
The part about paying for info reminds me of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator where he buys a test lot and if it goes his way then he continues to buy.

Anyway, been quite a while since I have logged in here. Mostly been sitting around guffawed over what the markets have done since March and waiting for them to start going down again. IMHO the DOW 10,000 level is an important S/R level and then today we have a BEOB straddling 10k on the Dow, USD/CAD at important S/R and looking like it could bounce, lots of inverse ETFs looking bullish. Take a look at these charts. Anyone thinking of shorting the market? I plan to buy SMN at 10.12. BTW, Clockwork, gorgeous setup on the Hasbro short.
Attached Images
  • #5,513
  • Oct 21, 2009 11:23pm Oct 21, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Sort of an if A -> then do B kind of function?

That could come in handy for setting up orders for potential scenarios.
Hi.

Yes basically but not that flexible you might expect. It are only two additional order types which are only placed if the price retraces to a specified level.

Sometimes you may think, well if price retraces to here I place a buy stop here. With MT5 you can specify both levels at order order entry and walk away. But the broker has to support MT5. I think if the beta phase is successful that many MT brokers will offer this. MQL5 is also greatly expanded against MQL4.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,514
  • Oct 21, 2009 11:30pm Oct 21, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
The part about paying for info reminds me of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator where he buys a test lot and if it goes his way then he continues to buy.

Anyway, been quite a while since I have logged in here....
Only time will tell, but you are correct......there are several inverse ETF's lining up at one time. QID comes to mind.....it moves really, really fast.

As far as paying for info, yes....it's a quote from somewhere - I can't remember where.....could have been that book, or a variation on it. (I love that book.)

Welcome back.

Chris
  • #5,515
  • Oct 21, 2009 11:32pm Oct 21, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting stefx
Hi.

Yes basically but not that flexible you might expect. It are only two additional order types which are only placed if the price retraces to a specified level.

Sometimes you may think, well if price retraces to here I place a buy stop here. With MT5 you can specify both levels at order order entry and walk away. But the broker has to support MT5. I think if the beta phase is successful that many MT brokers will offer this. MQL5 is also greatly expanded against MQL4.

Stefan.
I believe you are correct, most brokers are going to offer it, I see no reason not to. In fact, I would be surprised if MT didn't push the market that way.

I know brokers have to pay a licensing fee, so if they only offer 5 in a year or two - that solves any issues for MT

Chris
  • #5,516
  • Oct 22, 2009 8:14am Oct 22, 2009 8:14am
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Frustrating, my stop loss was hit a few days back on the eur/jpy by 1 stinking pip! I gained a +375 pip trade, hid my stop behind a major level (135) and my stop at 134.75 was hit by one measly stinkin' pip! unreal. this morning this pair crossed the 137 threshold...of course.

Any psychological feedback to help cure my depression about this is encouraged....thanks for letting me vent a bit.
  • #5,517
  • Oct 22, 2009 8:47am Oct 22, 2009 8:47am
Quoting drebin
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Frustrating, my stop loss was hit a few days back on the eur/jpy by 1 stinking pip! I gained a +375 pip trade, hid my stop behind a major level (135) and my stop at 134.75 was hit by one measly stinkin' pip! unreal. this morning this pair crossed the 137 threshold...of course.

Any psychological feedback to help cure my depression about this is encouraged....thanks for letting me vent a bit.
I really wish I could tell you something that makes it all better, but to be honest - this happens. Luckily, it's not that often you get stopped out by one pip. All you can do is stick with the plan. Look at it this way: In the past.....were you able to be up by 375 pips?

This is a journey.....a long one. Don't sweat it, and look at what you achieved in the "psychology" of the trade.....you held on. Trust me, profits follow.
  • #5,518
  • Oct 22, 2009 9:28am Oct 22, 2009 9:28am
Quoting drebin
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Frustrating, my stop loss was hit a few days back on the eur/jpy by 1 stinking pip! I gained a +375 pip trade, hid my stop behind a major level (135) and my stop at 134.75 was hit by one measly stinkin' pip! unreal. this morning this pair crossed the 137 threshold...of course.

Any psychological feedback to help cure my depression about this is encouraged....thanks for letting me vent a bit.
Hi.

It's important to find the right place for the stop, not too close and not too far. It's no big thing to place a stop which isn't hit if you don't intend to be profitable, just put it far enough away. To be honest you placed the stop correctly to 1 pip, unfortunately to the wrong side but 1 pip. This is IMHO a positive sign for finding areas that matter, that you don't give your earned 375 pips enough respect is a negative sign. Don't blame you on a winner because you didn't get all the possible pips.

The technical explanation of what I would have done in the chart. It's AlpariUK feed, so it might not everything fit exactly to yours but my thought's behind stay the same.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY-2009-10-22-16-10-34-Alpari-UK-Ltd.png Size: 58 KB


Hope this helps, Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,519
  • Oct 22, 2009 10:37am Oct 22, 2009 10:37am
Futures tend to be a little more pat to day trading. (because of the tick values, margin size, etc.)

This is an example of a trade that had a couple of good reasons to be taken. It's Mini Gold December 09.

If you are going to trade futures.....a lot of the time it's not reasonable to trade off of weekly charts, or even daily ones.....depending on the market.

Make sure you can handle the longer time frames first before attempting this. I am posting this chart because I had one or two people ask about this.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 103 KB
  • #5,520
  • Oct 22, 2009 11:03am Oct 22, 2009 11:03am
Quoting clockwork71
I really wish I could tell you something that makes it all better, but to be honest - this happens. Luckily, it's not that often you get stopped out by one pip. All you can do is stick with the plan. Look at it this way: In the past.....were you able to be up by 375 pips?

This is a journey.....a long one. Don't sweat it, and look at what you achieved in the "psychology" of the trade.....you held on. Trust me, profits follow.
Thanks CW. Good points all around. The support and teaching is awesome!
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