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Silent Service Method

  • #5,481
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:44am Oct 19, 2009 7:44am
Quoting rsbgm
Something for me to always keep in mind. Thanks CW!

No worries. Thanks for reading!
  • #5,482
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:06am Oct 19, 2009 10:06am
AUDCAD - Day #59

Trailed the stop one more time. I mentioned in the last trade update that I want to see price is rejected about 50 to 70 pips from a PPZ to see it as confirmed. It's not only the distance but three bullish bars each closed higher than the previous accompanied with a failed pinbar. The 0.9500 is definitely a support now for me. Of course this support can fail but if it fails and kicks out all the highs towards my current stop it has a meaning. The second chart explains why I would not feel comfortable by leaving the stop below the blue line where it was before. It's all about comfort not about being right.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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NZDJPY

This one I closed on friday because of the bearish pinbar at 50% retrace. I could still be in but I've won the trade so nothing wrong with that. If this pinbar fails I'm probably long at a retrace to the 50%.

A chart which tells me that it's probably better to get out can a bit later tell me to get in because my exit reason failed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,483
  • Oct 19, 2009 10:44am Oct 19, 2009 10:44am
Quoting Eduardo
What spread are you paying on usdnok then?

I wouldn't be going long usdcad any time soon due to the trend, it's trying to tell you something, but I would never knock anyone else's trades and I wish you luck.
And... you would be right! Both are working against me, but haven't hit my stop, so i'll let 'em ride for the time being although given the price action over the last several hours, I'm losing confidence in the trades rapidly. But if this is truly a weekly trade, I probably shouldn't even be looking at my current P/L (lets be honest, no P in those trades at the moment)

My current quote on the USD/NOK is 5.56725 / 5.57125 - so 40pips? All the exotics have wide bid/ask but they get even wider than that closer to weekends (late friday / sunday afternoon+evening) and they're so volatile that they rarely move in pips, more like 10s of pips :-) so i end up putting on much smaller position sizes.

Here is the NOK Spread history from Oanda:
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/slyng/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.png[/IMG]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,484
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:17am Oct 19, 2009 11:17am
Quoting stefx
AUDCAD - Day #59

It's all about comfort not about being right.


A chart which tells me that it's probably better to get out can a bit later tell me to get in because my exit reason failed.
Guys, girls, and whatever else could possibly be reading this thread. Please, please, please read these statements and think about them over and over. These are two of the best statements about trading that I have read in at least a year.

Stefan knows his stuff, and this just proves it yet again. Great post.

Chris
  • #5,485
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:18am Oct 19, 2009 11:18am
Quoting InfinitySL
And... you would be right!...
My IB spreads aren't much better, so I wouldn't worry about it....besides, the pip value is smaller so it's all the same in the end.....

And you are correct - it's a weekly trade, so there's really nothing to look at or even think about yet.
  • #5,486
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:42pm Oct 19, 2009 1:42pm
Update on the AEP "box" trade I am in.....As you can see, I am putting in an order so that if price gets to 32.60 before hitting my tight stop, my stops will move up to 31.90
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  • #5,487
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:43pm Oct 19, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting InfinitySL
And... you would be right! Both are working against me, but haven't hit my stop, so i'll let 'em ride for the time being although given the price action over the last several hours, I'm losing confidence in the trades rapidly. But if this is truly a weekly trade, I probably shouldn't even be looking at my current P/L (lets be honest, no P in those trades at the moment)

My current quote on the USD/NOK is 5.56725 / 5.57125 - so 40pips? All the exotics have wide bid/ask but they get even wider than that closer to weekends (late friday / sunday afternoon+evening)...
That's why I don't like trading against the trend. Sorry I was right on day 1 though! Plenty of time for it to resume that retrace so don't worry, I have plenty of time to be wrong.

I suppose if you're trading very long term what's 40 pips? I think I pay nearer 80!
  • #5,488
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:46pm Oct 19, 2009 1:46pm
Chris, considering a lot of stock trades will be entered and closed within 3 or 4 days paying the spread rollover on IGIndex wouldn't be so bad?

I begrudge paying them multiple times for the spread but they do have a fantastic quantity of stocks, futures and spots to trade.
  • #5,489
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:23pm Oct 19, 2009 3:23pm
I've been watching this one - a Pin-bar formed on today's daily around an interesting level...Trend is lower, might be hard to borrow as 10% is already sold short, but that's the way i'd be leaning.

http://finviz.com/publish/101909/MCOc1dl1614.png
  • #5,490
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:54pm Oct 19, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting Eduardo
Chris, considering a lot of stock trades will be entered and closed within 3 or 4 days paying the spread rollover on IGIndex wouldn't be so bad?

I begrudge paying them multiple times for the spread but they do have a fantastic quantity of stocks, futures and spots to trade.

If you are talking about financial spread betting, being an American, I cannot do this.....so to be honest, I know very little of it. Sorry.
  • #5,491
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:58pm Oct 19, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I've been watching this one - a Pin-bar formed on today's daily around an interesting level...Trend is lower, might be hard to borrow as 10% is already sold short, but that's the way i'd be leaning.

http://finviz.com/publish/101909/MCOc1dl1614.png

This is a really, really interesting chart. I like the look of it.
  • #5,492
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:22pm Oct 19, 2009 11:22pm
Watching this one.....
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  • #5,493
  • Edited 9:12am Oct 20, 2009 9:11am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting clockwork71
This is a really, really interesting chart. I like the look of it.
One word of caution on this one - they do release earnings 10/29, so this is always something to be mindful of w/ Stocks. I would argue it's a bit like taking a currency position ahead of NFP....

MO's earnings are 10/21, not sure if before/after the bell...
  • #5,494
  • Edited 11:54am Oct 20, 2009 11:26am | Edited 11:54am
I just discovered www.advfn.com and their pro charts are really good. I recommend it highly.

Edit: They do stock screening too.
  • #5,495
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:00pm Oct 20, 2009 12:00pm
AUDCAD - 60th Anniversary

Price shot right up into the sky after the recent swings high was left behind. Trailed the stop now the second time in two days and the gap between the entry and the S/L nearly needs one H4 chart height now . The current stop is not as protective as the one before, but more comfortable for me.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AMCC - Day #3

This is my 2nd virtual stock trade. The sell stop order was placed at Sep. 19th and got trig'd 3 days ago. The next time I have to take a closer look is at the white line below the current bar.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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HE - Day #Don't like to count (Opened Jul. 28th)

This trade is overall a bit indecisive but locked in 2.8%. There's not much to tell except that the 38% retracement seems strong support, thus the uptrend could still be valid but I'm not very confident about and that's why I locked the profits and left only a bit of room and not the space I normally intend to give, again the comfort thingy, you know.

Together my first two virtual stock trades are together up by 10.5% floating. I hope to continue this once with the real coin.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have a nice one, Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,496
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:03pm Oct 20, 2009 12:03pm
I've mostly stopped posting my setups before entry, because too many times I've been talked out of good trades or into bad ones. Different perspectives are what make this market flow, we're all allowed to be on whatever side of the trade we want to, as long as we're comfortable with the risk.

So...contrary to popular opinion, I'm short gbpusd @ 1.6379
  • #5,497
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:23pm Oct 20, 2009 12:23pm
Quoting Low
I've mostly stopped posting my setups before entry, because too many times I've been talked out of good trades or into bad ones. Different perspectives are what make this market flow, we're all allowed to be on whatever side of the trade we want to, as long as we're comfortable with the risk.
Price rejected at 1.65 which is IMHO a strong resistance, so you short can get the chance it needs at the first place without doing a closer analysis.

You're completely right with your opinion about posting trades prior to the entry. You're getting answers and opinions created out of different trading styles, different risk appetite and different comfort zones. If you post a setup prior to the entry don't expect answers which are confirming your setup. Your trade setup maybe your trading styles winner and my trading styles loser but both, you and me where certain about the setup and what is most likely to happen. You can post setups and pick the answers which are COMPLETING your analysis. Incorporate the technical/fundamental aspects from the answers which you normally use but maybe forgot to look at. Read out what makes sense for your style of trading but DO NOT just take a CONFIRMATION or a NEGATION of your setup by it's words.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,498
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:29pm Oct 20, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting InfinitySL
One word of caution on this one - they do release earnings 10/29, so this is always something to be mindful of w/ Stocks. I would argue it's a bit like taking a currency position ahead of NFP....

MO's earnings are 10/21, not sure if before/after the bell...
Hi.

I would appreciate to know where you get this earnings release information from if you wouldn't mind to share. Thank's InfinitySL.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,499
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:38pm Oct 20, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting stefx
Hi.

I would appreciate to know where you get this earnings release information from if you wouldn't mind to share. Thank's InfinitySL.

Stefan.
Here is one for determining who's earnings are coming up this week:
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

However for a given company, it will often appear on upcoming announcements which is also available on Yahoo finance. So for MO, it's here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ce?s=MO

Hope that helps.
  • #5,500
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:26pm Oct 20, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting Low
I've mostly stopped posting my setups before entry, because too many times I've been talked out of good trades or into bad ones. Different perspectives are what make this market flow, we're all allowed to be on whatever side of the trade we want to, as long as we're comfortable with the risk.

So...contrary to popular opinion, I'm short gbpusd @ 1.6379
I agree that unless you are 100% confident in your analysis, you shouldn't post until after the fact. It's a hurdle that a lot of traders have to overcome. For example, you could say long CAD at such and such price, and I could say...."Hmmmm, I don't agree."

What would you do? Some people would be intimidated by me saying that. But why? I can and do make wrong decisions all the time.....it's about making those mistakes small.

Besides, what if I talk you out of it and it goes 2000 pips this coming week? Then I would feel bad!

Chris
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