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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #46,501
  • Edited 10:13pm Oct 20, 2009 9:57pm | Edited 10:13pm
Quoting supermatt
in regards to the a/j i have recently asked myself why try to get into trades after there has already been a great signal days or weeks beforehand.... Why would i want to go short on this a.j trade when i could still be long from a week or so ago from a good pa setup . I wouldve made alot more money with less risk and felt abit more confident.

Im not picking on anyone here, its just something i have observed over the past few days where people want to take trades going the opposite direction when they could have been still in the...
I really like this post Matt =)

Trading against the daily trend in the 4hour isn't going to yield a great R:R unless the turning point is nailed.

What I have (recently) found to be one of my favourite setups is to wait for a Daily PA setup and wait for the 1hour/4hour to give PA that it is intending to head in that direction.

After much reflection, I realised that trading counter trend just scares the shit outta me. I end up checking my trade every 10mins when I'm trading 1hour/4hour. Excessive stress shouldn't be a part of good trading imo.
[ Btw, I'm a HUGE fan of Fiji's psych section. I'm much clearer about my own psychology now and I know what I am comfortable with... and it's amazing how a this clarity has spilled over into my trading ]

If the daily trend is really bending, then the 1hour/4hour will begin showing it pretty obviously with lower highs & lower lows (assuming long). In this way, at very least, I know that I am with the trend and dont end up w OCD.

EURGBP comes to mind. Big PB in daily, divergence, 1hour showed lower lows & lower highs before a big break. (GBP across all the pairs was showing signs of reversal from weakness to strength too)

PS: This thread moves like speedy gonzalez after his morning expresso~

EDIT:
I have also been thinking of trading in terms of odds. I.E.: If this setup occurred 10,000 times, would I want to take ALL of them? Do I have that kind of confidence in this type of setup, or am I just hoping to get lucky this once?
I personally find that if I am hoping like crazy this ONE setup will work out, then I feel like I am gambling (think about a lottery ticket), however, if I am trading something I know and am comfortable with, well, yes, I do hope it will work out, but if it flunks out, then well...next.

Case in point: Mike (resident elmer ) likes breakouts and does it again and again and again and again and again.

Since we are not going to get rich betting on an individual setup, we should be thinking, "ok, this is something I really like to trade. I want to trade this similar setup 10,000 times! I know over the course of 10,000 such trades, I will be UP"

This is also why (1) we have to know our individual psychology & what we are comfortable trading and (2) BACK TEST
One Mind, Any Market
  • #46,502
  • Oct 20, 2009 10:03pm Oct 20, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting Cyrus
Heya Nos,
...
Could you post that indicator..
Cyrus,
if i may...
are u referring to the 3 mini charts on the righthand side of his chart?
if so, it's stratman's minicharts. over at the THV thread. look for the latest version (v.12 or above?)
  • #46,503
  • Oct 20, 2009 10:05pm Oct 20, 2009 10:05pm
Cool. Thanks SC
One Mind, Any Market
  • #46,504
  • Oct 20, 2009 11:10pm Oct 20, 2009 11:10pm
Very Good! ,

Quoting raczekfx
and some rebounds....

It's been v.long day.. g.nite...
What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #46,505
  • Oct 21, 2009 1:23am Oct 21, 2009 1:23am
Quoting FX_Serg
usdcad is forming nice BUOB on daily as well
But i think he will be closing out while we would be entering the BUOB.

Quoting raczekfx

He'll short when you long, and will long when you short
  • #46,506
  • Oct 21, 2009 1:24am Oct 21, 2009 1:24am
Let me first say that im on page 3090 of the forum so if anyone has also seen and posted on this then please forgive me. From recent reports, we seem to have an oversupply of oil in the mkt at the moment. Secondly news from CAD yesterday was not very encouraging especially since they decided to leave rates unchanged. I'm seeing a good Resistance trading opportunity partially supported by heavy selling from yesterdays market activity. Attached are two charts.What do you guys think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #46,507
  • Oct 21, 2009 1:27am Oct 21, 2009 1:27am
On chart 2 the R is actually a stop loss position

Quoting pipsdaily
Let me first say that im on page 3090 of the forum so if anyone has also seen and posted on this then please forgive me. From recent reports, we seem to have an oversupply of oil in the mkt at the moment. Secondly news from CAD yesterday was not very encouraging especially since they decided to leave rates unchanged. I'm seeing a good Resistance trading opportunity partially supported by heavy selling from yesterdays market activity. Attached are two charts.What do you guys think?
  • #46,508
  • Oct 21, 2009 1:52am Oct 21, 2009 1:52am
DBLHC AT MAJOR SUPPORT 1.5400 chart attached. Oh how I wish I could get a comment from one of the seniors. I'm in on this one. James?
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  • #46,509
  • Oct 21, 2009 2:20am Oct 21, 2009 2:20am
Quoting pipsdaily
DBLHC AT MAJOR SUPPORT 1.5400 chart attached. Oh how I wish I could get a comment from one of the seniors. I'm in on this one. James?
Hey Pip

I wouldn't really count this as a DBLHC, as the lows aren't really close enough to me. Just a BUB which might show more strength to come. But this pair is crazy choppy and messy lately heading back to early this year. Makes the mgmt part less then ideal. Not very optimal setup IMO

Best
Mike
  • #46,510
  • Oct 21, 2009 2:20am Oct 21, 2009 2:20am
Quoting FX_Serg
Hey Joel,
It doesn't, except that 61.8 becomes 38.2. If the goal is to enter on fibo level then your right. However, if your trying to enter on 61.8 because you believe that this is the last level where the move can retrace then you'd rather wait for 61.8.
I've done this mistake million times by entering on 38.2, knowing that the trend is up. The painful part is that if there is a big distance between 61.8 and 38.2 you gonna be in a big drawdown waiting for the pair to retrace from 61.8.
Just my 2 cents.

Serg
Hi FX_Serg,
I did plot the fib as you described in your previous post and just misquoted my entry point. What I ment to say was entry was at the 38 fib. Sorry for the confusion. As it turns out the price point was the same that being 1.0425.

Sorry for the confusion.
Mikali
  • #46,511
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:10am Oct 21, 2009 3:10am
Quoting Cyrus
Heya Nos,

Refering to this post below:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=46364

Could you post that indicator that allows you to view a few timesframes on 1 screen? Thanks

Here it is, thanks to stratman.
I believe he has his own thread regarding this indicator.

You should add the font to your fonts directory (windows if that's the case).

Hope it helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Stratman_MiniChart_v20.ex4   40 KB | 449 downloads
File Type: zip Stratman.zip   < 1 KB | 561 downloads
  • #46,512
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:26am Oct 21, 2009 3:26am
Quoting supremeChaos
in general, we are looking for a cluster of bars (usually forming a clear "V" shape) that conspicuously protrudes among the other clusters of bars within a chart.
we can avoid the 'in hindsight' problem by looking for/expecting big reversal bars that protrudes at good locations. big bars at good/great locations rarely get 'rejected'/fail their 'missions'.
Quoting mbqb11
Swing points CAN and DO change. But the idea is to identify if it is a good swing point in real time. Point A is the only place I would call a swing point(notice the pin never triggered). But this would be a true swing point. Those other points are in very very heavy traffic, making them extreme minor swing points. This is where you can see all the phrases here come together. Look for a bar at a good swing point(aka no traffic). If there is traffic the swing points will be more minor by definition of traffic.
Mike
Hi SC and Mike, thanks for your explanations. Now after reading and rereading both of your posts for several times, I think I get your points. Hope it will improve my decision making. Many thanks to bot of you.
  • #46,513
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:42am Oct 21, 2009 3:42am
i just love it when a plan comes together!!
jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,514
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:50am Oct 21, 2009 3:50am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
i just love it when a plan comes together!!
jon
I'm also in based on the weekly BEOB.
Let's see how can I manage this trade.
  • #46,515
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:09am Oct 21, 2009 4:09am
Quoting NosferatuMan
I'm also in based on the weekly BEOB.
Let's see how can I manage this trade.
i hope you do better than i have so far!!lol
yesterday my trade was stopped out by my trailing stop by a couple of pips,(in profit) it is my fault as i didnt want it to come into play and thought i had it well away from price!!(no big deal as i had taken profits by then though. i re entered this morn at .9115 and have since closed half and have my stop at .9080 but i might bring it close if price hits .9000
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,516
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:21am Oct 21, 2009 4:21am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
i hope you do better than i have so far!!lol
yesterday my trade was stopped out by my trailing stop by a couple of pips,(in profit) it is my fault as i didnt want it to come into play and thought i had it well away from price!!(no big deal as i had taken profits by then though. i re entered this morn at .9115 and have since closed half and have my stop at .9080 but i might bring it close if price hits .9000
jon
I'm just a beginner demoing. I initially had a big stop so my lotsize is too small.
Just closed half position and moved my stop in a way that if its hit it will be a break even trade. Don't know if this is a good idea but don't want to be stopped prematurely. Anyway, lets see how it goes and then I might adjust my stop.

Comments are welcome.
  • #46,517
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:36am Oct 21, 2009 4:36am
Quoting NosferatuMan
I'm just a beginner demoing. I initially had a big stop so my lotsize is too small.
Just closed half position and moved my stop in a way that if its hit it will be a break even trade. Don't know if this is a good idea but don't want to be stopped prematurely. Anyway, lets see how it goes and then I might adjust my stop.

Comments are welcome.
sounds good to me, at least now you dont have to worry bout it being a loss! i am trying to remind myself that this is a weekly bar and so i dont want to close myself out too quickly.I want price to retrace a bit from this last down move and then i will hide my stop behind the high that makes. i am now in a free trade whatever happens so its all good from now.
jon
good luck
p.s. price has jus hit .9010 which gives me jus over 100 pips in floating profits! not bad for a 25 pip stop
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,518
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:04am Oct 21, 2009 5:04am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
sounds good to me, at least now you dont have to worry bout it being a loss! i am trying to remind myself that this is a weekly bar and so i dont want to close myself out too quickly.I want price to retrace a bit from this last down move and then i will hide my stop behind the high that makes. i am now in a free trade whatever happens so its all good from now.
jon
good luck
p.s. price has jus hit .9010 which gives me jus over 100 pips in floating profits! not bad for a 25 pip stop
That's great.
My goal is to detect entries that don't need huge stops, just like you did. In a few weeks/months I probably will (wishful thinking).

Can you post the chart that triggered your entry? Was it H4, H1 based?

Thanks.
  • #46,519
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:21am Oct 21, 2009 5:21am
Hallo guys i have a doubt....looking for confluence have i drown the fib correctly??
I mean from A to B and from A1 to B1 ?? I have highlighted the potential confluence with gray box.

thanks in advance.
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Patience is essential
  • #46,520
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:38am Oct 21, 2009 5:38am
I was watching Speed Racer to pass the time so I did not post earlier.
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