Dislikedin regards to the a/j i have recently asked myself why try to get into trades after there has already been a great signal days or weeks beforehand.... Why would i want to go short on this a.j trade when i could still be long from a week or so ago from a good pa setup . I wouldve made alot more money with less risk and felt abit more confident.
Im not picking on anyone here, its just something i have observed over the past few days where people want to take trades going the opposite direction when they could have been still in the...Ignored
Trading against the daily trend in the 4hour isn't going to yield a great R:R unless the turning point is nailed.
What I have (recently) found to be one of my favourite setups is to wait for a Daily PA setup and wait for the 1hour/4hour to give PA that it is intending to head in that direction.
After much reflection, I realised that trading counter trend just scares the shit outta me. I end up checking my trade every 10mins when I'm trading 1hour/4hour. Excessive stress shouldn't be a part of good trading imo.
[ Btw, I'm a HUGE fan of Fiji's psych section. I'm much clearer about my own psychology now and I know what I am comfortable with... and it's amazing how a this clarity has spilled over into my trading ]
If the daily trend is really bending, then the 1hour/4hour will begin showing it pretty obviously with lower highs & lower lows (assuming long). In this way, at very least, I know that I am with the trend and dont end up w OCD.
EURGBP comes to mind. Big PB in daily, divergence, 1hour showed lower lows & lower highs before a big break. (GBP across all the pairs was showing signs of reversal from weakness to strength too)
PS: This thread moves like speedy gonzalez after his morning expresso~
EDIT:
I have also been thinking of trading in terms of odds. I.E.: If this setup occurred 10,000 times, would I want to take ALL of them? Do I have that kind of confidence in this type of setup, or am I just hoping to get lucky this once?
I personally find that if I am hoping like crazy this ONE setup will work out, then I feel like I am gambling (think about a lottery ticket), however, if I am trading something I know and am comfortable with, well, yes, I do hope it will work out, but if it flunks out, then well...next.
Case in point: Mike (resident elmer ) likes breakouts and does it again and again and again and again and again.
Since we are not going to get rich betting on an individual setup, we should be thinking, "ok, this is something I really like to trade. I want to trade this similar setup 10,000 times! I know over the course of 10,000 such trades, I will be UP"
This is also why (1) we have to know our individual psychology & what we are comfortable trading and (2) BACK TEST
One Mind, Any Market