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  • #154,301
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:54pm Oct 20, 2009 5:54pm
Quoting az_ivan
The currency crisis began. It is USD crisis. Has nothing to do with EUR and the zone. 2.0 is real target for the next 18 months.
we shall see.

so... keep buying then.



you bet on 2.0 and I on 1.2.

m
  • #154,302
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:56pm Oct 20, 2009 5:56pm
Quoting Patience
How the Federal Reserve Bailed Out the World

"We are now back at a time when the only gains in the stock market are at the expense of dollar destruction, with a concomittant funding for dollar denominated assets. In one short year since the collapse of Lehman we have gone back to the same dollar funding risk exposure as was on the books in these days before Dick Fuld's empire unravelled. While whether or not the Federal Reserve stepped beyond...

There's a small point missing there, the fed created the problem in the first place

But hey, i don't understand anything about fundamentals
Traders are smartasses
  • #154,303
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:56pm Oct 20, 2009 5:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
80pb oil could be the top.. who knows the magic number..but it will put a leash on eu..i was thing 1.5062

bbl
No way they could run it up as high as last time, although, of course, it'll get there again soon enough on fundamentals.

Oil is key right now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #154,304
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:59pm Oct 20, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting ashlee_17
above the range (1.5 - 1.6), the EUR can be un-stoppable. So, yes, 2.0 can be a target for bulls
you do realize the higher this pair goes the worse it is for the zone.

1.6 is more crippling than 1.5.

m
  • #154,305
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:03pm Oct 20, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting Spsantos
There's a small point missing there, the fed created the problem in the first place

But hey, i don't understand anything about fundamentals
The 6 countries that make up the core of the Eurozone all have foreign dollar denominated claims which are well over 100% of their respective GDPs! These countries took on an amount of Dollar exposure that would take on a country's entire GDP to fund and then some. And the fact that they have done so with the complicity of the Federal Reserve is staggering and a clarion call for a global risk regulator which is distinctly separate from the US Fed, which prompted this intractable risk taking in the first place.

It's a very long article
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #154,306
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:04pm Oct 20, 2009 6:04pm
Bernie is far from an idiot or a clown. the man is just doing his job.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #154,307
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:06pm Oct 20, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting ashlee_17
above the range (1.5 - 1.6), the EUR can be un-stoppable. So, yes, 2.0 can be a target for bulls

wouldnt 2.0 suggest euro at, or near parity with the pound.........crazy long shot

EZ could never sustain that.....can we say bubble!
  • #154,308
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:17pm Oct 20, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting TheFisherman
It's no crisis by all means! Do you hear Bernie the Clown and Obamarama crying??? Nope? Nobody does. It's a cold blooded premeditated course of action taken to the best interest of USA government debts and other side shit lying around and to the worst interest of US citizens and the rest of the world. Because they can!
*L* the lower the dollar gets the euro does go up comparible.. but at some point as dollar goes down so does the euro.. not in a good way down..at that point you lose your manufacturing base. and the dollar gets stronger. before you lose your manufacturing base you need to change the rules for a rate hike. its part of the reason we had 1.6 in 2008.. ez phucked usd on eu's way up with 147pb oil.. bend over its your turn..or change the rules. inflation with a job or not...the balls in ez's court..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #154,309
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:17pm Oct 20, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting vulture
Bernie is far from an idiot or a clown. the man is just doing his job.
Does "i'm going to print 1000 billion dollars and if the printing machine breaks i'm gonna buy a new one" sound familiar? he shoudda wear the red nose on that specific event
  • #154,310
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:21pm Oct 20, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting Patience
The 6 countries that make up the core of the Eurozone all have foreign dollar denominated claims which are well over 100% of their respective GDPs! These countries took on an amount of Dollar exposure that would take on a country's entire GDP to fund and then some. And the fact that they have done so with the complicity of the Federal Reserve is staggering and a clarion call for a global risk regulator which is distinctly separate from the US Fed, which prompted this intractable risk taking in the first place.

It's a very long article...
Indeed And you made me read it again, this time line by line!!!

What still puzzles me is why they kept funding bad assets, providing liquidity with near 0 interest. Maybe they "hoped" that the short term funding would be stabled. Eck, they just blew it to humungous proportions.

In the essence, since the dollar is the most used currency, the fed needs a key role, but they also wanted that role.
Traders are smartasses
  • #154,311
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:22pm Oct 20, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting vulture
Bernie is far from an idiot or a clown. the man is just doing his job.
Ummm job...............I dont post much .........Bernie far from and idiot or clown..........true.He is automated recepie for disaster.......
Let Price determine your future!
  • #154,312
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:28pm Oct 20, 2009 6:28pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Does "i'm going to print 1000 billion dollars and if the printing machine breaks i'm gonna buy a new one" sound familiar? he shoudda wear the red nose on that specific event
well what should be done? im not an economist but i guess they did the best they could do to save the world economy. so what is your expert opinion on what should be done? how do you know their exist strategy wont work? well they can make mistake too who knows.. lets just trade
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #154,313
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:31pm Oct 20, 2009 6:31pm
I got enough since March, thanks!
I would be very cautios at that point /see attachment/ and not holding any shorts there. EURUSD is a heavy train. First it must stop and then turn around. It needs a serious event to reverse a trend. Like interest rate change or Dow sinking. And it seem like nobody considers the idea that Mr Trichet increases the rate before Ben the Clown. EUR would make an ugly hole on your ceiling, mate!
Quoting acumen
we shall see.

so... keep buying then.



you bet on 2.0 and I on 1.2.

m
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We will never forget you Karlo
  • #154,314
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:32pm Oct 20, 2009 6:32pm
Quoting Patience
How the Federal Reserve Bailed Out the World

"We are now back at a time when the only gains in the stock market are at the expense of dollar destruction, with a concomittant funding for dollar denominated assets. In one short year since the collapse of Lehman we have gone back to the same dollar funding risk exposure as was on the books in these days before Dick Fuld's empire unravelled. While whether or not the Federal Reserve stepped...
Hypothetically speaking, just where would the "short squeeze" translate into E/U? My best guess is 1.65 or more....

As the DXY continues tumbling ever lower to fresh 2009 lows, the trade de jour is once again the dollar funding one, although unlike before when the Yen was the carry currency of choice, this time it is the dollar itself, positioning banks for the double whammy of not just a dollar funding shock, but one coupled with a potential massive and historic short squeeze. If and when an exogenous event occurs, not even $6.5 trillion in Fed swap lines will be sufficient to bail out the world economy.
  • #154,315
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:33pm Oct 20, 2009 6:33pm
if you honestly think china gives a crap about ez manufacturing.sit back and watch... applaud when eu get to 1.6..... each tick you lose market share..each tick you get weaker. wecome to japan...a japan losing market share.. japan is in the same boat. 200k beamers dont sell well in the u.s.

good luck.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #154,316
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:36pm Oct 20, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
if you honestly think china gives a crap about ez manufacturing.sit back and watch... applaud when eu get to 1.6..... each tick you lose market share..each tick you get weaker. wecome to japan...a japan losing market share.. japan is in the same boat. 200k beamers dont sell well in the u.s.

good luck.
m
  • #154,317
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:39pm Oct 20, 2009 6:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
if you honestly think china gives a crap about ez manufacturing.sit back and watch... applaud when eu get to 1.6..... each tick you lose market share..each tick you get weaker. wecome to japan...a japan losing market share.. japan is in the same boat. 200k beamers dont sell well in the u.s.

good luck.
where DO 200k beamers sell well?
  • #154,318
  • Edited 6:55pm Oct 20, 2009 6:44pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting TheFisherman
where DO 200k beamers sell well?
dono but you could get a new mercedes or beamer for 100$ at a certain aiport in the mid east about 8 months ago.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #154,319
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:47pm Oct 20, 2009 6:47pm
Quoting TexasforEX
This is just a difference of opinion. It will only affect US relations with the world, not the world with the world. I forecast the USD will decline against everyone. It is a Fed and reserve currency issue. All in my humble opinion.

Helicopter Ben, being the student of the 30's that he is, will not make the same mistake and raise rates too soon. Not until 2011 imo. Will this cause huge problems with Treasury auctions, trade and protectionism. You bet. Hell of a five years coming our way.
Eurozone Trichet would intervene at 1.60 or 1.65, so 2.00 cannot happen anytime soon, if ever..., Eurozone economy would collapse...and they have many many fragile countries, and that's the way it is.
  • #154,320
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:48pm Oct 20, 2009 6:48pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Hypothetically speaking, just where would the "short squeeze" translate into E/U? My best guess is 1.65 or more....

[i]As the DXY continues tumbling ever lower to fresh 2009 lows, the trade de jour is once again the dollar funding one, although unlike before when the Yen was the carry currency of choice, this time it is the dollar itself, positioning banks for the double whammy of not just a dollar funding shock, but one coupled with a potential massive and historic short squeeze. If and when an exogenous event occurs, not even $6.5 trillion...
Well I must be extremely thick then because my understanding of the article was that the world was once again "short of dollars" and the short squeeze was going to be the other way as in the EUR going down.

I need to go to university or stop reading articles that I don't fully understand.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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