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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #13,601
  • Oct 20, 2009 3:25am Oct 20, 2009 3:25am
In my long term view UJ does not have a big upside...see this...
Japan/US: Honda considers Fit transfer

Tuesday, October 20, 2009, AutomotiveWorld.com
Honda is considering transferring production of its Fit model from Japan to the US, according to Automotive News. With the rapid rise of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, the change in strategy would make sense. President Takanobu Ito confirmed that such a transfer was ‘highly likely’.
At the moment, all Fit models are imported to the US from Japan. Ito did not indicate which US facility might take on production of the model, should the transfer go ahead.
Published on Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Companies understand the seriousness of no intervention policy of the new gov. They have started to hedge their business from the strong yen. Slowly every other firm will follow Honda and the demand for a weak yen will diminish.
The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent.
  • #13,602
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:26am Oct 20, 2009 5:26am
I got bored waiting for news and decided to do some more research into news coming up @ 8:30 AM EST. It looks like building permits will exceed estimates of 590,000 by about 20,000; making the official number somewhere in the 610,000 range +/- 5000 IMO. PPI looks to be up as well, how much though is questionable, as the actual number appears to be relatively higher or lower than the estimate. I believe building permits has already been priced into the market, but PPI, and the lack of news articles detailing the existing data, looks to be somewhat mysterious. MACD looks to be in good position for an upswing, but stochastics will most likely be oversold in the 2 hours left until news; they are already @ 75-80. PA on the hourly chart is hovering at the bottom of the ichimoku cloud on anticipation of the news release, so there is most likely "something" that hasn't been price in as of yet. Any thoughts?
  • #13,603
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:31am Oct 20, 2009 5:31am
Quoting rainingpips
I got bored waiting for news and decided to do some more research into news coming up @ 8:30 AM EST. It looks like building permits will exceed estimates of 590,000 by about 20,000; making the official number somewhere in the 610,000 range +/- 5000 IMO. PPI looks to be up as well, how much though is questionable, as the actual number appears to be relatively higher or lower than the estimate. I believe building permits has already been priced into the market, but PPI, and the lack of news articles detailing the existing data, looks to be...
How do you know that the news has already been priced in??
The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent.
  • #13,604
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:02am Oct 20, 2009 6:02am
Quoting NewFX
How do you know that the news has already been priced in??

From bloomberg's article detailing how they may be reaching a 10-week high. If this is common knowledge (i.e. a major financial news article), then it has effectively been priced in by any player of importance in the banking network that affects PA in FX. It will be hard to really substantiate this claim however, as this new release comes in hand with PPI m/m @ 8:30 AM EST. We can look at the official number, and if close to the 610k figure I provided, it could be said that it had already been priced in; if wildly different, then maybe not. PA is moving into the cloud starting a new 1hr uptrend, strange activity in my mind given that news has yet to be released. It would seem the majors are positioning for a possible bad release for PPI.

Here's the link for the Bloomberg article - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ayIHPulqyoS8
  • #13,605
  • Oct 20, 2009 7:47am Oct 20, 2009 7:47am
GAP FILL???
  • #13,606
  • Oct 20, 2009 7:54am Oct 20, 2009 7:54am
Quoting rainingpips
Which period are you referring to? Weekly, H4, H1 are all in a downtrend. The only period which is in an uptrend is daily, and MACD and stochastics are both overbought in this period. PA hit a wall @ 91 and couldn't get past it for two days, followed by 2 bear candles (daily). It never came close to the bottom of the ichimoku cloud, and btw is below it anyways. I wouldn't start labeling this pair as moving back to topside until it at least pierces the cloud.
I was referring to the daily chart. You're right though. It is premature to say there will be upswing.
  • #13,607
  • Oct 20, 2009 10:39am Oct 20, 2009 10:39am
i'm keeping an eye on the macd zero cross over of 1hr and daily charts
  • #13,608
  • Oct 20, 2009 4:31pm Oct 20, 2009 4:31pm
Is anyone else scratching their head over PA over the last 9 hours? The news that came out was all below the expected values, yet we skyrocketed back up past the pivot to R1, didn't close above R1. I think this activity was due more to technicals being oversold than the news reaction. Several hours ago I said that the technicals looked right for a 1hr uptrend, but that was only if news came out as or better than expected. Anyone have some insights? Looks like we might be going into another 1hr downtrend in a few hours, with MACD overbought; stochastics is ricocheting around on lower volume though.
  • #13,609
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:31pm Oct 20, 2009 5:31pm
Told you guys. Once we have an NY close above 90.5 it's bullish. Time to start buying the dips I think.

We can still go down from here obviously, but each time we don't makes it less and less likely to me. 90.57 holds downside support currently. If we break below that then down we go.
  • #13,610
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:40pm Oct 20, 2009 5:40pm
Actually I will show a chart with some bearish implications:

Purple squares highlight bullish zone indication (5 bars). Backtesting shows market has tendency to retrace after 5 bullish bars, the max generally being between 6-8 bars.

So we could see downmove from here possibly. As you can tell from my posts, my bias is generally up but I am trying to ignore it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,611
  • Oct 20, 2009 5:51pm Oct 20, 2009 5:51pm
Shorters can take their pick here I think, it would be extremely low RR ratio to short from here with SL at 90.9 target 88 and below!

I will trade against my bias and take that short, from 90.7 SL 90.9
  • #13,612
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:20pm Oct 20, 2009 6:20pm
My pick on where buyers and sellers are located:

Buyers:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Sellers:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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RE: Gannline/QQE status: all TF is in buy signal at this level except D1.
  • #13,613
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:39pm Oct 20, 2009 6:39pm
Just so you don't think I am biased short, also buying the break of 90.79
  • #13,614
  • Oct 20, 2009 9:51pm Oct 20, 2009 9:51pm
I'm waiting for my trend indicator to change, and it looks like we are on the cusp of a return to an h1 downtrend, MACD looks ripe to cross, and stochastics are overbought. We are also possibly exiting the ichimoku cloud; but I don't think we'll see a trend change for couple more hours (2-4 hrs).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,615
  • Oct 20, 2009 10:26pm Oct 20, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting rainingpips
waiting for my trend indicator to change, and it looks like we are on the cusp of a return to an h1 downtrend, MACD looks ripe to cross, and stochastics are overbought.
holding similar thoughts too.

might sell (demo trade) if crosses 90.62

caveat emptor
  • #13,616
  • Oct 20, 2009 10:32pm Oct 20, 2009 10:32pm
H1 trend appears to be very close (2 pips from 90.68) of changing. I'm going to go short at the daily pivot. I need to figure out if we are going to successfully break the 60 MA however.
  • #13,617
  • Oct 20, 2009 10:53pm Oct 20, 2009 10:53pm
H1 is trading within a range now. Look like consolidation period. 90.620 seems to be strong support.
  • #13,618
  • Oct 21, 2009 2:16am Oct 21, 2009 2:16am
Quoting rainingpips
H1 trend appears to be very close (2 pips from 90.68) of changing. I'm going to go short at the daily pivot. I need to figure out if we are going to successfully break the 60 MA however.
It would appear that we are on our way to MS1, resistance @ 90.45. 4 hr MACD and stochastics look good for the downtrend.
  • #13,619
  • Oct 21, 2009 2:30am Oct 21, 2009 2:30am
it took the bait at 90.62

bungee jumping for 20 pips at 90.42
  • #13,620
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:01am Oct 21, 2009 3:01am
Quoting TheArcher
it took the bait at 90.62

bungee jumping for 20 pips at 90.42

my stop loss is at 90.82

let's see how tough this fish is ... will it pierce the ceiling ?
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