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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #13,581
  • Oct 19, 2009 9:58pm Oct 19, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting rainingpips
Big USD news day tomorrow, only about 12 hours away until release. Looks like we are already below the daily pivot, 13 pips down. Everyone think we might be looking at another daily bear candle?
Possibly. Good news is expected for US so I presume daily candle may be bearish but with a longer lower shadow.
  • #13,582
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:16pm Oct 19, 2009 11:16pm
I am buying this level big time. Long 90.396 SL 90.296 TP open.
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  • #13,583
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:30pm Oct 19, 2009 11:30pm
SL hit
  • #13,584
  • Edited 11:55pm Oct 19, 2009 11:42pm | Edited 11:55pm
Quoting sinner-
I am buying this level big time. Long 90.396 SL 90.296 TP open.
I think we are going to be re-visiting new lows with this one, S3 isn't out of the question. Why do you think we are reversing now?
  • #13,585
  • Oct 19, 2009 11:47pm Oct 19, 2009 11:47pm
Opened a short at 90.47. Going with the trend here.
  • #13,586
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:00am Oct 20, 2009 12:00am
Next level is clearley 89.55 have a look at your charts draw a 4 hour trendline...and this coincides with s3 ..

Good luck
GeppyG
Let Price determine your future!
  • #13,587
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:06am Oct 20, 2009 12:06am
Hey guys, in the spirit of "discussion" I thought I'd link this article which summarizes my beliefs on where this pair is headed. The U.S. can't sustain this printing frenzy much longer. Economists such as Max Keiser have repeatedly spoke on how the "bail out" packages were either hoarded or given away as bonuses, and corporate books have abstained from counting the losses. My belief is that U.S. corporations will demand another bailout package before next summer, and who knows how low this pair will be by then. I estimate near low 70s or high 60s. Interesting to hear other members' thoughts on this matter affecting the dollar yen pair.

Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a_A5nqmw9Dq8
  • #13,588
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:16am Oct 20, 2009 12:16am
Quoting rainingpips
Hey guys, in the spirit of "discussion" I thought I'd link this article which summarizes my beliefs on where this pair is headed....
i don't think its really about that. There are some aspects of it, but it is not the deciding factor. The world is recovering so they are taking their money out of the safe haven and investing it in other markets. Look at the dollar when the market hit 14000. The dollar was at 72-73. The devaluation of a currency helps countries markets. That's why china is lowering their currency. The dollar is returning to pre lehman bros levels. We will see when Japan buys some more dollars to lower their currency.
  • #13,589
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:22am Oct 20, 2009 12:22am
Quoting sed34
i don't think its really about that. There are some aspects of it, but it is not the deciding factor. The world is recovering so they are taking their money out of the safe haven and investing it in other markets. Look at the dollar when the market hit 14000. The dollar was at 72-73. The devaluation of a currency helps countries markets. That's why china is lowering their currency. The dollar is returning to pre lehman bros levels. We will see when Japan buys some more dollars to lower their currency.
Spot on you got it in one..........
Let Price determine your future!
  • #13,590
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:26am Oct 20, 2009 12:26am
Quoting sinner-
I am buying this level big time. Long 90.396 SL 90.296 TP open.
man...your stop loss is small. no breathing room huh? you're either right or wrong.
  • #13,591
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:31am Oct 20, 2009 12:31am
Quoting sed34
man...your stop loss is small. no breathing room huh? you're either right or wrong.
It's actually the minimum allowed by my broker. When trading VSA generally there is no room to be wrong, if you are wrong then you misinterpreted and should exit as early as possible.

When trading the H1 I will use either 5SEMA shifted 3 or 8SEMA shifted 5 as my trailing SL (Bill Williams Alligator) which is generally 50-100 pips away.
  • #13,592
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:51am Oct 20, 2009 12:51am
hmm it appears we hit a consolidation level @ 90.05. I think we'll be retracing a little bit before the news hits @ 8:30 AM EST. MACD and stochastics are both oversold on the 15 min and hourly charts.
  • #13,593
  • Oct 20, 2009 1:17am Oct 20, 2009 1:17am
Quoting rainingpips
hmm it appears we hit a consolidation level @ 90.05. I think we'll be retracing a little bit before the news hits @ 8:30 AM EST. MACD and stochastics are both oversold on the 15 min and hourly charts.
I agree....went ahead and closed the trade I was in. Hoped for a bit more, but can never complain about profit!
  • #13,594
  • Oct 20, 2009 1:51am Oct 20, 2009 1:51am
Quoting bamafan2112
I agree....went ahead and closed the trade I was in. Hoped for a bit more, but can never complain about profit!
I got out of my shorts @ S2, and I think this pair will stay between S2 and S3, or about 20 pips +/- 1 until news hits. Makes me wonder whether institutions drove the market down before news (favorable to U.S.???) hits to make more profit. Won't be the first time this has happened. MS3 may be where they dropped their shorts and went long, too bad there is no "real" volume indicator for the FX market outside of a bonafide banking institution that is a big player in the market (e.g. BoA).
  • #13,595
  • Oct 20, 2009 1:59am Oct 20, 2009 1:59am
Here is a chart showing what might happen up to news, with a reasonable range of PA dependent on whether the news release is favorable for US or not. I think we might see a spike of 40+ pips in either direction, with the technicals favoring the upside come 8:30 AM EST. MACD might be close to crossing, and stochastics are already oversold.
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  • #13,596
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:04am Oct 20, 2009 2:04am
Quote
hmm it appears we hit a consolidation level @ 90.05. I think we'll be retracing a little bit before the news hits @ 8:30 AM EST. MACD and stochastics are both oversold on the 15 min and hourly charts.


Good Morning Guys!! Agree with rangingpips there!! It seem like it will consolidate at this level and could retrace back to 90.40/90.50 levels before the news come out!! I have taken a LONG position at 90.18 and and looking for some 20 pips there!! Lets c!!
  • #13,597
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:15am Oct 20, 2009 2:15am
Quoting Pak Tiger
Good Morning Guys!! Agree with rangingpips there!! It seem like it will consolidate at this level and could retrace back to 90.40/90.50 levels before the news come out!! I have taken a LONG position at 90.18 and and looking for some 20 pips there!! Lets c!!
I would get out of that trade around 90.30 if it goes that high. I think we are kaput in terms of volatility until news.
  • #13,598
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:32am Oct 20, 2009 2:32am
Quoting rainingpips
I think we are going to be re-visiting new lows with this one, S3 isn't out of the question. Why do you think we are reversing now?

I'm with Sinner. I think that the uptrend will continue after this retracement because PSAR & MACD indicate an uptrend. Furthermore, ADX is weak now.
  • #13,599
  • Oct 20, 2009 2:38am Oct 20, 2009 2:38am
Quoting rainingpips
I would get out of that trade around 90.30 if it goes that high. I think we are kaput in terms of volatility until news.
Totally Agree with you there! I might get out even before it hits 90.30!!
  • #13,600
  • Oct 20, 2009 3:10am Oct 20, 2009 3:10am
Quoting moneylovesme
I'm with Sinner. I think that the uptrend will continue after this retracement because PSAR & MACD indicate an uptrend. Furthermore, ADX is weak now.
Which period are you referring to? Weekly, H4, H1 are all in a downtrend. The only period which is in an uptrend is daily, and MACD and stochastics are both overbought in this period. PA hit a wall @ 91 and couldn't get past it for two days, followed by 2 bear candles (daily). It never came close to the bottom of the ichimoku cloud, and btw is below it anyways. I wouldn't start labeling this pair as moving back to topside until it at least pierces the cloud.
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