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  • #6,541
  • Oct 18, 2009 10:35pm Oct 18, 2009 10:35pm
So I pulled out the M1 again and watched it tonight during the Asian session like Strat recommended in post #4499.

The PA was pretty crazy, price reversing and breaking out without any indication from the bars. Clean reversal PA like on the daily was hard to find.

What really stood out for me was how support and resistance was obeyed by the pa. Even on such a low tf you can see SR zones so clearly. I could almost predict where price would stop pn retraces etc after a while. This is probably pretty basic for some of you but I just find it amazing how PASR works.

I recommend you guys to try this out its pretty interesting and its good practice.
  • #6,542
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:53am Oct 19, 2009 1:53am
Perfect Stress Free Trade on a Perfect Pair.

If 0.9080 has been broken, then next station was at 0.9450. As you can see from attached chart, after 0.9080 level was breached strongly, it was tested with a hammer and then price moved up to 0.9410 where we had a shooting star, telling us it was time to exit. Now we have tested 0.9080 level again and waiting for PASR to show the way. Only trading between two SR levels could earn you so many pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-daily.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #6,543
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:14am Oct 19, 2009 2:14am
Quoting Blackeagle
Perfect Stress Free Trade on a Perfect Pair.

If 0.9080 has been broken, then next station was at 0.9450. As you can see from attached chart, after 0.9080 level was breached strongly, it was tested with a hammer and then price moved up to 0.9410 where we had a shooting star, telling us it was time to exit. Now we have tested 0.9080 level again and waiting for PASR to show the way. Only trading between two SR levels could earn you so many pips.
Hello Blackeagle, great stuff, it looks so clear! Although the trend is UP don't you think the last week down momentum was to powerful to get LONG yet? Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 30 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,544
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:24am Oct 19, 2009 2:24am
Speaking of EURGBP, this is how I'd play it at this point.

BOSS
BIG BEOB. Looking for shorts this week putting a lot of weight on this pattern.

Worker.
Looking for a reversal PA near 0.93 where we have a confluence of Daily S/R and ret 62.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 31 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,545
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:28am Oct 19, 2009 2:28am
Quoting soso
Speaking of EURGBP, this is how I'd play it at this point.
On a second thought... Considering that BOSS & BIG BOSS are UP it is better to wait for this big down momentum to fade out then look for longs. Higher probability since trends are all aligned.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,546
  • Edited 7:15am Oct 19, 2009 3:40am | Edited 7:15am
Quoting soso
Hello Blackeagle, great stuff, it looks so clear! Although the trend is UP don't you think the last week down momentum was to powerful to get LONG yet? Thanks!
A couple of reminders;

1- I haven't mentioned about my position bias in my previous post (PASR to show the way at 90.80!!!, so different strategies based on what price will do at 0.9080), although I like the long at the moment since 16/10 low was HL. Immediate trend is still UP.

2- Daily bar is still in action.

Re. your second post on EURGBP, I have no major or minor SR level at or near 0.9300.

Thanks for your time to reply.
  • #6,547
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:40am Oct 19, 2009 3:40am
Just a little note of introduction, on post 1920 of this forum now and only 4000 to go. Although I am not flash reading information overload is taking its toll and my brain is full to the point where the info feels like its seeping out of my ears.

Trading experience
Started trading Forex about 9 months ago so very new, but feel that I was originally on the right track using Steve Nison and Steve Lori teachings as starting points for my path into this new arena.

However, being a degree educated electronics engineer I thought I knew better than the rest adding indicators after indicator until I could not see PA for the trees ( indicators ). My accounts only went in one direction...Down.

Then were the Fast / amazing / spectacular Forex systems... My account went down...

Used the 5, 15 and 30 minute timeframes... My account went down...My stress levels went up.

The final straw came with Woodie CCI and learning his methods. When I was being strongly advised by him and everyone on the Woodie forum to remove all price action and trade ONLY with the CCI alarm bells started to ring... I was at least bright enough not to trade my account with this mad system.

On the right path ?
On finding Strats thread about 3 weeks ago I have stopped trading completely, the light has come on in my head and his method “adds up”. I do not intend to start trading again until I feel that I at least have a relationship with the Queen and can speak PA. ( and finished the last 4000 post on this thread )

Strat – please don’t be so hard on us lurkers, some of us are slow readers and its a very very long thread. I would like to become an active member when I have at least finished reading this thread ( if that ok )

About Me
UK based ( Reading nr London ) in a full time job. Fantastic wife, one daughter and twin girls arriving early 2010.
  • #6,548
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:50am Oct 19, 2009 3:50am
Quoting strat
The best way is to draw the DSRI supply line and buy a strong close above that.
Hello Strat,
thank you for your input.

On the weekly chart, the last week candle is a small shooting star. It might be profit taking time on gold. I'm gonna wait to see if the price goes down to the 20 ema. For now, I'm looking for trades in the direction of the trend so I will wait for a pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spot_gold_weekly.png Size: 117 KB




I took your advice and draw DSRI on the daily chart. I hope I got this right
Also I put a Fibonacci retracements on the last swing (AB) and there are a few interesting spots on the chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spot_gold_daily.png Size: 146 KB


First spot is a confluce between the 1st DSRI, 1st support and fibonacci 50% retracement level. This could be an interesting area on the chart. I'm curious if the will be any PA here.
  • #6,549
  • Oct 19, 2009 3:54am Oct 19, 2009 3:54am
Quoting soso
On a second thought... Considering that BOSS & BIG BOSS are UP it is better to wait for this big down momentum to fade out then look for longs. Higher probability since trends are all aligned.
Yep! I'll go with that one. The long term trend is UP but EUR progress has been 'jaggy' to say the least since the beginning of 2009. I think there is a real chance of a return to the 61.8 fib retracement at 0.9080(ish). Worker candles have broken down through the 20 MA. BOSS and BIG BOSS seem to show a loss of upward pressure even though overall there is an uptrend.

I will wait for a hammer at the 0.9080 level (how good that would be to see) before going in Long. If not a hammer, then some other PA to show the way.
  • #6,550
  • Oct 19, 2009 4:13am Oct 19, 2009 4:13am
Quoting Blackeagle
A couple of reminders;

1- I haven't mentioned about my position bias in my previous post (PASR to show the way at 90.80!!!, so different strategies based on what price will do at 0.9080), although I like the long at the moment since 16/10 low was HL, so immediate trend is still UP.

2- Daily bar is still in action.

Re. your second post on EURGBP, I have no major or minor SR level at or near 0.9300.

Thanks for your time to reply.
Hello Blackeagle,

Thank you for your comments, it is clear now what you mean. Although considering the bearish momentum I still dont feel confortable on the long side today...

Regarding the SR level at 0.93, it is at ~0.927 more exactly. I've taken it from the recent Daily bars, main swing of September 28.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 26 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,551
  • Edited 5:32am Oct 19, 2009 5:14am | Edited 5:32am
Quoting soso
Hello Blackeagle,

Regarding the SR level at 0.93, it is at ~0.927 more exactly. I've taken it from the recent Daily bars, main swing of September 28.
I saw that, but when I look at history between Nov. 08 - Apr 09, I don't see that level as significant, so one or two swing highs/lows do not qualify as minor/major SR for me (especially when you look at the Weekly), but I may be wrong.
  • #6,552
  • Oct 19, 2009 7:38am Oct 19, 2009 7:38am
Quoting strat
Try stepping further away from your screen and try to ignore the detail and instead look at the bigger picture
You should see a Double Bottom spread over 71/2 years. What normally follows a bottom?
A rally.


Also, if June 2001 is point “A” and November 2007 is point “B” and January 2009 is point “C”, where would you expect point “D” to complete?
A to B = C to D or somewhere in the neigborhood of 2.1000


While what you have said is FACT – it is too much detail. Again, step back and look at the bigger picture. By looking at the detail, you have missed the OBVIOUS. What do the last 4 BOSS bars tell you?
Price action aside, the last 4 bars tell me that the sellers had a real go at it but around 1.5830 there were more buyers than sellers, with the last week showing that sellers were hard to find.


GBPUSD Daily
In accordance with the higher order of timeframes, what does the Worker do?
It does what the Boss tells it to.

Seeing my comments above, now what do you think?
I think that we might be finishing up a minor retrace on our way back up to 2.1000 but as you said above, November will have to be a HH in relation to October for that to be confirmed.

With the MA's as guidlines not hardlines, I can see how they do show the rally even though they are lagging. Despite their location in relation to each other their slopes tell the tale (as in coming off the steep slope)

Also, on the monthly and weekly both, that minor retrace looks like a wobble to me.

So, any retrace is likely to be a minor one and I should wait for resistance at 1.6350 to be broken and confirmed, which would also break and confirm off of that weekly trend line.
  • #6,553
  • Oct 19, 2009 8:28am Oct 19, 2009 8:28am
Quoting strat
I missed this on my first read – must learn to read more thoroughly!
I certainly don't intend to convey that I have trading whipped! I do not and far from it indeed! As mentioned earlier, my trading skills are sub part at best. Your previous post to me of 'Can't see the forest for the trees' is more accurate than you realize. When something makes sense to me, I focus on it sometimes to the exclusion of other more relevant pieces.

When I finally realized that randomness in the market was a part of trading, something clicked in my head and I no longer had the urge to break my plan once I pulled the trigger. Believe it or not it really is that simple for me.

Now don't misunderstand me...do I become uncertain after I pull the trigger? Most certainly! Does price go against me before coming back? Again, yes, but does that cause me to change my plan or gamble on adding to my position? Most certainly not, and that is where I've been able to turn my trading around. In my very first post I said I had been net profitable since June of this year. It certainly wasn't due to my sub par trading skills for sure. It was solely because I realized you had to stick to the plan. I had significantly more failed trades than successful ones but because I traded my plan, I made more than I lost.

All my life I've been very fortunate to be able to draw mental lines in the sand and come hell or high water, I hold the line. Drawing the line to begin with was always the hard part for me. That's why, when I finally realized what basic trading psychology was really saying, I had (for me) that epiphany. Not to thumb my nose at the psyche gremlin for sure...but only because 'during the trade psyche' isn't my gremlin any longer. My demon is WHEN to pull the trigger or rather putting on a good trade. I have no illusions about that and I fully respect the pitfalls that abound every time I put on a trade.

That's why I'm here...to learn when and how to put on a good trade.

-m

P.S. To reference one of your earlier posts about military and trading: In my youth, I wanted to go into military aviation and was in their top 2% of candidates but the fact that I had corrected vision eliminated me from flying, so I passed on the military. I suspect their tests have more to do with seeing if someone can follow orders more than determining aptitude.
  • #6,554
  • Oct 19, 2009 8:57am Oct 19, 2009 8:57am
Quoting Bones
No but the monthly can
OK, I'll fall for it!

Here is Ronald MacDonald on the BIG BOSS

The more I look at Ronald, the less I see

What do you see that I don't?

I'm serious - if this thing is saying something that I can't already see with PASR, I REALLY would like to know. Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ronald macdonald on eurgbp.gif Size: 29 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,555
  • Oct 19, 2009 9:02am Oct 19, 2009 9:02am
Quoting soso
BOSS.
While BIG BOSS is bearish, last 3 bars on BOSS all show BUYING. The previous 2 hammers can be considered profit taking but last week ended up as a long bullish bar which means more buying strength.

Attachment

Worker.
Big buying momentum visible on Worker too. Found resitance at 148.5, next resistance at 154, suport at 144. Am looking to long side if Ms. Market gives me chance and retraces to 144.

Attachment

EDIT: It is GBPJPY, not USDJPY.
Very sound analysis and logic. You're doing good, soso
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,556
  • Oct 19, 2009 9:04am Oct 19, 2009 9:04am
lots of info on this thread! i'm interested to read more!
  • #6,557
  • Oct 19, 2009 9:30am Oct 19, 2009 9:30am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Strat and Team,

Attached is EURGBP.

Weekly: Immediate trend is Bullish. But last weeks's candle close as a very bearish BEOB. It failed to close below 0.9100.

Daily: Daily is in an uptrend. Price finding resistance at 0.9350 and had retraced back to 0.9100 and closing between daily20 and daily50.

My plan: Am planning to look for PA to go long with the trend. BUT AM CONCERN of the BIG BEOB on the BOSS.

Strat: When a BEOB presents in the weekly, Does it mean that I must avoid taking a trade eventhough PA is present and Im with the trend...
Sean (and everyone),

PASR trading is NOT a given set of rules, e.g. Buy after Hammer, Sell after Shooting Star, Sell after BEOB etc.

It is a complete methodology of READING THE MARKET using PRICE and FOOTPRINTS.

The first steps on The Path are to recognize these bars then trade them and become very familiar with them. Understanding and knowing this, the next steps are to read the script the market has laid out before us. This is more difficult and subjective and not governed by a hard set of rules.

My plan: Am planning to look for PA to go long with the trend. BUT AM CONCERN of the BIG BEOB on the BOSS.

Strat: When a BEOB presents in the weekly, Does it mean that I must avoid taking a trade even though PA is present and Im with the trend (LONG) ?

My first reaction on this is CONFLICT – why trade a pair which has CONFLICT when there are other pairs with better opportunities?

CONFLICT represents HIGH RISK and STRESS – something I am not very good at so I would walk away from it.

However, that is just based entirely on your above statement.

The BEOB has thrown you for a loop and you are confused. Do NOT take the BEOB on face value. Where is the BEOB relative to PRICE/TREND/RESISTANCE/SUPPORT?

Remember, a price reversal bar is ONLY the first indication that market sentiment MAY be changing. We have to confirm this with other studies. It is NOT a signal to make a trade.

Study the BOSS BEOB more carefully – maybe it traded straight down to support? Maybe it didn’t, only your chart can tell YOU. Maybe it traded down to minor support and there is MAJOR support below it. What does history tell us?

If you really want to trade a pair with conflict then step back and look at the bigger picture. You have not stated what the BIG BOSS is doing. Always start with the BIG BOSS, get the picture then work down to the BOSS, get THEIR combined picture and finally get to your trading time frame, the Worker.

Ideally, you want to be trading the Worker just as it TURNS into HARMONY with the BOSS and BIG BOSS.

If this has confused you it is because you are not ready to move further along The Path and you should focus and practice on the basic steps.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,558
  • Oct 19, 2009 12:01pm Oct 19, 2009 12:01pm
Well I never meant the monthly macd s going to give shorts a problem ,just monthly price.I'm sure I read in the index that you use some cycle indicators ,I must be wrong.Cycle I think has turned down on the weekly.Is it Ronald MacDonald because of the color.Also in the index you refer to J16.He also uses MACD for divergence but his is plain black and white so I suppose thats ok.




Quoting strat
OK, I'll fall for it!

Here is Ronald MacDonald on the BIG BOSS

The more I look at Ronald, the less I see

What do you see that I don't?

I'm serious - if this thing is saying something that I can't already see with PASR, I REALLY would like to know. Thanks.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #6,559
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:07pm Oct 19, 2009 2:07pm
Its not a shooting star at all ,do you know why ?

Quoting hcristea
Hello Strat,
thank you for your input.

On the weekly chart, the last week candle is a small shooting star. It might be profit taking time on gold. I'm gonna wait to see if the price goes down to the 20 ema. For now, I'm looking for trades in the direction of the trend so I will wait for a pullback.

Attachment



I took your advice and draw DSRI on the daily chart. I hope I got this right
Also I put a Fibonacci retracements on the last swing (AB) and there are a few interesting spots on the chart.

Attachment ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold w1 19oct no5.gif Size: 17 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #6,560
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:30pm Oct 19, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting Bones
Its not a shooting star at all ,do you know why ?
Hi Bones,
I dont know why its not a shooting star. It has a small body, long upper shadow, small lower shadow. What am i missing?
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