I like the Big Dogs because I trade like them
- | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Member | 36 Posts
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DislikedHope following picture will tell how people loose and how market play with emotion.Ignored
DislikedYou won’t find this advertised by your broker. What percentage of time do you think retailers (en masse) are winning more than they’re losing? Would you expect it to be similar across different pairs? To figure this out, I took 9 months of position data from Oanda, and divided it up into neutral (winners and losers roughly in balance), losing and winning.
For the EURUSD, retailers spent 0.5% of the time in profit, 12% running at or near b/e and 87.5% losing. Nice work eh? Ever get the feeling you’re in the wrong business? Looking at other pairs:...Ignored
Dislikedpercentage of time do you think retailers (en masse) are winning more than they’re losing? Would you expect it to be similar across different pairs?Ignored
DislikedEURUSD: 0.5% profit
EURCHF: 1% profit
USDJPY: 6.5% profit
EURJPY: 8.5% profit
GBPUSD: 11.5% profit
GBPJPY: 12% profit
AUDUSD: 15% profit.
In other words, AUDUSD has been 30 times as profitable for retailers as EURUSD in the past 9 months.
What is it about price action that makes trading one pair harder than another? Sure, in the case of AU there’s been a clear trend, but EY, compared to EU? Why so different?
And I nearly forgot to mention - which pair is most commonly traded by retailers, accounting for about 1/3 of all open...Ignored
DislikedWRONG.
Unless you know for sure the coin is loaded the probability remains at 50/50.
The law of large numbers states that as the number of observations (in this case coin flips) increases, the results will more acurately reflect the actual mathamtical probabilities.
You may have to throw the coin 999,999,999 more times for the results to reflect the math. But each individaul throw remains a 50/50 propisition.
What can happen are streaks. Which we may also call trends.
This brings us to the next point:
The prudent trader would...Ignored
DislikedTriphop was quoting Taleb. If I read Taleb correctly, he was illustrating how an anomaly (weighted coin) might escape an equation of probability math. And how educated people tend to rush to an answer based on what they "know" (50/50 no matter how many times heads or tales already appeared) without considering the "Black Swan", or, what they don't know. The unknown, or Black Swan, in this case is the weighted coin.Ignored
DislikedMaybe he deleted them himself. I can't see any reason for admin to delete them. Just a little harmless debate going on.Ignored
DislikedYes, you can trust your instinct, but only if you have 20 years of successful experience. I can tell a competent surgeon, with 20 years of experience, to trust his instinct. I will never tell a new medical school student to trust his instinct. 6th sense is good to have, but you still need to have a trading system to apply your instinct.Ignored
DislikedPorkpie, the casino has a clear, measurable, constant edge. .....
I think I was clear enough.Ignored