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Strategy of losers

  • #21
  • Oct 16, 2009 7:31am Oct 16, 2009 7:31am
  •  zykas
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: ... measure thrice, but cut once | 196 Posts
[quote=triphop;3152991]1) Next time you win twice or lose twice, raise the warning flag... quote]

Ya food for thouhht .
I like the Big Dogs because I trade like them
  • #22
  • Oct 16, 2009 7:53am Oct 16, 2009 7:53am
Quoting ramdas
Hope following picture will tell how people loose and how market play with emotion.
So true, that is all I can say because as you know a picture is worth a thousand words and I dont have time to write that much.
  • #23
  • Oct 16, 2009 8:04am Oct 16, 2009 8:04am
hello triphop,

i am glad u opened such an interesting thread.

i am one of those who like to believe that all that stuff about 95% losers and all such myths are misinformed too ... and there is by no means transparent and information enough to get a reliable statistic about trading success ... because we don't even have settled parameters to measure what a retailer customer is ,etc ... everybody understands it differently.

but anyways we don’t need it ... success in ANY area in life is VERY rare ... in the order of the edges of Gaussian Bell... we don’t need to be any Einstein to realize that becoming as successful in business as Buffet, or Bill Gates is WAY beyond having only a "positive" attitude ... one need that and MUCH MORE ...

Thing is that for trading for a living one does NOT need to be Bill Gates ... we can trade for a living modestly ... not everybody that is a currency trader needs to be Warren Buffet to succeed ... but indeed ... one needs a lot of things in harmony.

In my personal experience i have 4 years trading ... sometimes live accounts and some times demos ... i've just got out an excellent performance this last month ... an at the end blew-out all the demo accounts ... why?

Consistency ... i've noticed that having a consistent approach while understanding market layers was clue from switching to a "break-even" trader to an "in-profit trader" ...

why i blew the accounts? in fact was a "test" i was leading before relaunching live trading ... i wanted to know where the limits of my "edge" were ... and guess what? the instant i got "relaxed" in the way i analyze the market ... all the profits ran away ...

i got "relaxed" because i stopped caring giving sense and consistency to every single piece of the trading puzzle ... at the end ... i also wanted to know what happened if i started gut-feeling trading ... when i started "wishing" bad trades to turn positive ... getting early the profitable ones than their original tp targets ...

all the virtues became vices ... result: margin calls ... and the end of the profitable breach.


Having an "edge" is a MUST in this business ... and i define an edge as "understanding things in a very personal way using the same ol' fashioned tools differently" ... success won't come BEFORE that ... that is at least what i have learnt.

Hope this helps in someway.
  • #24
  • Oct 16, 2009 8:45am Oct 16, 2009 8:45am
Quoting triphop
You won’t find this advertised by your broker. What percentage of time do you think retailers (en masse) are winning more than they’re losing? Would you expect it to be similar across different pairs? To figure this out, I took 9 months of position data from Oanda, and divided it up into neutral (winners and losers roughly in balance), losing and winning.

For the EURUSD, retailers spent 0.5% of the time in profit, 12% running at or near b/e and 87.5% losing. Nice work eh? Ever get the feeling you’re in the wrong business? Looking at other pairs:...
Triphop,

Truly amazing thread and information shared here. Already, you have awakened my mind to the true reality of trading. I look forward to following this thread. Thank you for sharing.

fxpilot
  • #25
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:57am Oct 16, 2009 10:57am
Triphop,

now that is what I call research with an edge.

I don't often say this, but carry on and you are seriously in danger of seeing the light.

All the best.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #26
  • Oct 16, 2009 1:26pm Oct 16, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting triphop
percentage of time do you think retailers (en masse) are winning more than they’re losing? Would you expect it to be similar across different pairs?
Aren't we just seeing the result of good marketing (low spread) on the E/U pair? (I love the blurb that pops up on one of the sponsored links here on FF: "Trade the Euro - It's Easy!" or something to that effect)

Most people get their ass handed to them > most trade E/U > your posted results.

I'm sure that those who are profitable can trade any pair they like with good results.

All I'm saying is that taking a non-viable trading approach/methodology to one of the higher % pairs won't help the person at all (IMO).

Thanks for the thread/info and all the best to you!
Brent
  • #27
  • Oct 16, 2009 1:33pm Oct 16, 2009 1:33pm
Very good stuff here, tripster.

If the thread goes on long enough someone is bound to ask, so allow me to be the first...can you post EA for this?
  • #28
  • Edited 6:50pm Oct 16, 2009 1:39pm | Edited 6:50pm
triphop,

Thanks for the data.
At least ff's getting it somewhat right, with 2 of 3 IT threads devoted to g/u, g/j.

Also, maybe gut instinct works on GIGO.
It does work, it just takes forever to train and is notoriously difficult to follow.
  • #29
  • Oct 16, 2009 6:07pm Oct 16, 2009 6:07pm
Quoting triphop
EURUSD: 0.5% profit
EURCHF: 1% profit
USDJPY: 6.5% profit
EURJPY: 8.5% profit
GBPUSD: 11.5% profit
GBPJPY: 12% profit
AUDUSD: 15% profit.

In other words, AUDUSD has been 30 times as profitable for retailers as EURUSD in the past 9 months.
What is it about price action that makes trading one pair harder than another? Sure, in the case of AU there’s been a clear trend, but EY, compared to EU? Why so different?

And I nearly forgot to mention - which pair is most commonly traded by retailers, accounting for about 1/3 of all open...
Thanks for the great thread, triphop, and especially thanks for post #3.

Regarding the data above, what is the conclusion?

Trade the aussie and increase your odds... OR ... all beginners trade the E/U?

I used to read a lot of posts on these forums back when I traded full time, and I didn't hear a lot of chatter about the aussie.

Maybe there are a lot fewer retailers, and a hellava lot fewer beginners trading it? If more retailers trade E/U, and retailers have a habit of losing, then the poor profit statistics may not really be telling us anything about the pair so much as about the people trading it.

Yeah, we're hard-wired to lose, no doubt. Trying to un-do that is like trying to train oneself not to like boobs.
  • #30
  • Oct 16, 2009 8:09pm Oct 16, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting HiddenGap
WRONG.

Unless you know for sure the coin is loaded the probability remains at 50/50.

The law of large numbers states that as the number of observations (in this case coin flips) increases, the results will more acurately reflect the actual mathamtical probabilities.

You may have to throw the coin 999,999,999 more times for the results to reflect the math. But each individaul throw remains a 50/50 propisition.

What can happen are streaks. Which we may also call trends.

This brings us to the next point:

The prudent trader would...
Triphop knows that! He was sorta joking to make his point, didn't you realize?

Some people are amazing, if you don't explicitly tell that you weren't serious, they won't be able to tell even if it's totally obvious. Those literal-minded people tsc.
freedom
  • #31
  • Oct 16, 2009 9:02pm Oct 16, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting HiddenGap
WRONG.
Triphop was quoting Taleb. If I read Taleb correctly, he was illustrating how an anomaly (weighted coin) might escape an equation of probability math. And how educated people tend to rush to an answer based on what they "know" (50/50 no matter how many times heads or tales already appeared) without considering the "Black Swan", or, what they don't know. The unknown, or Black Swan, in this case is the weighted coin.
  • #32
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:36pm Oct 16, 2009 10:36pm
Quoting billflet
Triphop was quoting Taleb. If I read Taleb correctly, he was illustrating how an anomaly (weighted coin) might escape an equation of probability math. And how educated people tend to rush to an answer based on what they "know" (50/50 no matter how many times heads or tales already appeared) without considering the "Black Swan", or, what they don't know. The unknown, or Black Swan, in this case is the weighted coin.
What happened to Hiddengap's posts? They got deleted - why?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #33
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:52pm Oct 16, 2009 10:52pm
Quoting Chicky
What happened to Hiddengap's posts? They got deleted - why?
Maybe he deleted them himself. I can't see any reason for admin to delete them. Just a little harmless debate going on.
  • #34
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:54pm Oct 16, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting billflet
Maybe he deleted them himself. I can't see any reason for admin to delete them. Just a little harmless debate going on.
It looks like. I am really eager in knowing his view.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #35
  • Oct 16, 2009 11:14pm Oct 16, 2009 11:14pm
Yes, you can trust your instinct, but only if you have 20 years of successful experience. I can tell a competent surgeon, with 20 years of experience, to trust his instinct. I will never tell a new medical school student to trust his instinct. 6th sense is good to have, but you still need to have a trading system to apply your instinct.
Have a nice day! I hope everything is going well for you!
  • #36
  • Oct 16, 2009 11:21pm Oct 16, 2009 11:21pm
We are trading with limited funds "+" when "-" is infinite. If we had + infinite funds then we'll be 50/50 if the spread was 0.

Constin
  • #37
  • Edited Oct 17, 2009 12:01am Oct 16, 2009 11:51pm | Edited Oct 17, 2009 12:01am
Quoting Titan Trader
Yes, you can trust your instinct, but only if you have 20 years of successful experience. I can tell a competent surgeon, with 20 years of experience, to trust his instinct. I will never tell a new medical school student to trust his instinct. 6th sense is good to have, but you still need to have a trading system to apply your instinct.
Sorry to jump in (I have nothing else to do and like to write). I think he/she suggests the "instinct" as a "method", which is very much workable. One develops instincts over time and before that law of probabilities will keep you afloat. All you have to do now is to find a proper money management system. But unfortunately one proper money management concept for this kind of method is availabe in Mark Douglas' book which he/she thinks is bullsh*t (if I have correctly read the first post).
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #38
  • Oct 17, 2009 4:12am Oct 17, 2009 4:12am
so Trip, you are saying its not possible to have a systematic edge and one must rely on instinct (flexibility?) in the market. So, that would mean Casino's don't make money with their edge at all and that they woud have to change their rules every now and then to ensure the bending of rules (or what we might call 'instinct'). I don't think I follow you. Maybe it should be argued a systematic edge will not be profitable in the 'short' term but a bending of rules to allow for 'instinct' might make it possible for shorter term profits to show vis-a-vis the changing of market conditions (even so, does not mean rules cannot be incorporated that allows for such flexibility - but the simpler the system the more likely these rules will be followed with limited human error imo).
  • #39
  • Oct 17, 2009 4:41am Oct 17, 2009 4:41am
Porkpie, the casino has a clear, measurable, constant edge. For every dollar risked by a player at any machine the casino knows exactly what percentage of it belongs to him.

You don't have a measurable edge in the markets. Even if your system gave you minimum 5% monthly in the last year you can't say for sure that the next month will be profitable as well.
In the markets, if you have a mechanical system or you trade completely discretionary after acquiring the 6th sense, you can't measure the edge. You can only hope that your approach will work.

I think I was clear enough.
  • #40
  • Oct 17, 2009 5:51am Oct 17, 2009 5:51am
Quoting Sauron
Porkpie, the casino has a clear, measurable, constant edge. .....
I think I was clear enough.
Provided all the gamblers bet on different numbers and in equal amounts. We are not talking about slot machines, but roulette. Thats why they group the numbers in everyway possible, even/odd, black/red, north/south, whatever just to get even betting on all numbers in longer term,
The Thief of Wall Street
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