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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #13,481
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:11pm Oct 14, 2009 10:11pm
We are still into a triangle..... LOL
Those triangle....

If usdx dosen't turn around this night/today, most majors will get into new territory. CAD is almost at parity, EUR at 1.5000 and UJ around 88....

Its fun!!
  • #13,482
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:19pm Oct 14, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting Inzider
We are still into a triangle..... LOL
Those triangle....

If usdx dosen't turn around this night/today, most majors will get into new territory. CAD is almost at parity....

Its fun!!
Good MAE Inzider.

When I look at my chart it is not bullish we are back below the daily and H4 gann lines but at the same time I see strong buying at 89.2 (confirmed as US instos on the wire) during the NY session, without a return to those prices.

During Tokyo the only game sellers were from 89.6 and there wasn't much of them. There are more Asian sovereign sellers at 90, but we need to get there first (i.e. price needs to move up towards order flow if it wants to move down).

Fundamentally speaking JPY is in a much worse position than USD. Also, if the /J crosses want to go up, U/J will need to go up with them.
  • #13,483
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:30pm Oct 14, 2009 10:30pm
Long U/J 89.465 SL 89.365
  • #13,484
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:49pm Oct 14, 2009 10:49pm
triangle (Inzider) and confluence of MAs(sinner) indicates that we need to wait for breakout .

going by daily chart , it might breakout of the downward channel towards 90.00

anyway , will have to wait for Mr.Market to tell us .

caveat emptor
  • #13,485
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:56pm Oct 14, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting sinner-
Good MAE Inzider.

When I look at my chart it is not bullish we are back below the daily and H4 gann lines but at the same time I see strong buying at 89.2 (confirmed as US instos on the wire) during the NY session, without a return to those prices.

During Tokyo the only game sellers were from 89.6 and there wasn't much of them. There are more Asian sovereign sellers at 90, but we need to get there first (i.e. price needs to move up towards order flow if it wants to move down).

Fundamentally speaking JPY is in a much worse position than USD. Also,...
Hi Sinner!

All those are logic point.

Looking at USDX, its obvioulsy going down, still... but we are now at an important support from a couple a year before. So it could reverse today to give a rest before week-end.

The JPY index is, itself, is being sold also....

Monthly as Weekly suggest more downside, but H4/H1 are showing so much hesitation at this level that we could see a W intead of of furtjer extension.

I have some trendline on my chart and we are into a dam triangle for last 3 days.... making some false breakout.

To be honnest, any call from here is 50/50 and depend more on funnymentals then technical I think. H4/H1 suggest we could see some correction before any drop byt longer term suggest real lower level.

USDX haven't finish the ride yet, interest are to low and coutries are switching usd currency for gold and other major.

50 and 32 are the SR so.....

Let's see as always.

--------------------

Can you let me know what is : The wire.
I heard that many time but never had a clue what it is.

Thx!
  • #13,486
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:57pm Oct 14, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting TheArcher
triangle (Inzider) and confluence of MAs(sinner) indicates that we need to wait for breakout .

going by daily chart , it might breakout of the downward channel towards 90.00

anyway , will have to wait for Mr.Market to tell us .

caveat emptor
I don't like to trade like this at all because once you get "confirmation" the best part of the move has already occured. Only pointed out MA bunchup because you guys are using price action to trade (rather than VSA), so you should wait for price action to confirm.

I will long when I see buyers, short when I see sellers, and the only thing I wait for to confirm is see either drawdown on my account or green pips.
  • #13,487
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:02pm Oct 14, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting Inzider
USDX haven't finish the ride yet, interest are to low and coutries are switching usd currency for gold and other major.
As Warren Buffett once said

Be fearful when everybody is greedy and greedy when everybody is fearful

Quote
50 and 32 are the SR so.....

Yes, I am using something a bit different to determine metric:

We need an NY close below 88.5 for downtrend to resume

or

We need an NY close above 90.5 for new uptrend

Quote
Can you let me know what is : The wire.
I heard that many time but never had a clue what it is.

Thx!

"the wire" as in "news wire" or news coming right off the wire, I use forexlive.com and the 4cast page provided by Oanda as well as a few other news feeds to get an idea of what the pit traders are up to.
  • #13,488
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:07pm Oct 14, 2009 11:07pm
Here is an example feed off the wire

Inserted Code
15 October 2009 2:31:00 PM
* 15 Oct 09: 03:31 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! GBP/JPY, USD/JPY Flows - USD/JPY offers 90.00; but Cross/JPY demand to push it over

USD/JPY at 89.44-46, capped by exporters, Asian selling, but supported on back of Cross/JPY demand - with higher Aussie, Kiwi, and Euro, including Cable supporting Cross/JPY. Offer 90.00, stops above 90.00 level, while bids at 89.00-20 on the downside. Talks M.E. accounts, real money have been good buyers on dips, not surprised to hear more support at 88.50-60. GBP/JPY edging back up, to 143.55-65, while Cable up at 1.6050-55, as BoE MPC Paul Fisher rejects market views that BoE is talking down Cable to boost exports. GBP/JPY Bids at 143 lows, eye stops above 144.00. WL
  • #13,489
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:34pm Oct 14, 2009 11:34pm
i'm out of this pair and the eur/jpy for now.

The usd/jpy is in a bipolar state now. With now real direction. one minute you think its going up and it falls. You think its going to fall, then it goes up. Someone needs to give this pair some medication. I can imagine there are a lot of people getting burned trading the U/J right now.

right now i'm trading eur/usd and aud/usd. much better opportunities with a clear direction.

i'm out.
  • #13,490
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:36pm Oct 14, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting sed34
i'm out of this pair and the eur/jpy for now.

The usd/jpy is in a bipolar state now. With now real direction. one minute you think its going up and it falls. You think its going to fall, then it goes up. Someone needs to give this pair some medication. I can imagine there are a lot of people getting burned trading the U/J right now.

right now i'm trading eur/usd and aud/usd. much better opportunities with a clear direction.

i'm out.
It's your own fault for relying on a bunch of lines to decide "think it's going up" or "think it's going down", when all those lines do is show whether it went up or down in the past.
  • #13,491
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:42pm Oct 14, 2009 11:42pm
Quoting sinner-
It's your own fault for relying on a bunch of lines to decide "think it's going up" or "think it's going down", when all those lines do is show whether it went up or down in the past.
NIce one, you are totaly right!
Any level need PA confirmation to be valid.... can't just blindly take a shot.

I see for the wire, my broker provide some also. But I found those innacurate. I'll look at the one you suggest!

take care!

(im short form 55.. will cut if 32 not broken soon)
  • #13,492
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:45pm Oct 14, 2009 11:45pm
Quoting sinner-
It's your own fault for relying on a bunch of lines to decide "think it's going up" or "think it's going down", when all those lines do is show whether it went up or down in the past.
what the hell? where did this line thing come from? no one said anything about lines
  • #13,493
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:45pm Oct 14, 2009 11:45pm
Longs stopped out. Got an exit signal, ignored it, my own fault!
  • #13,494
  • Oct 14, 2009 11:46pm Oct 14, 2009 11:46pm
Quoting sed34
what the hell? where did this line thing come from? no one said anything about lines
Alright, please tell us what makes you think it is going up, right before it goes down and vice versa.
  • #13,495
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:03am Oct 15, 2009 12:03am
Quoting sinner-
Alright, please tell us what makes you think it is going up, right before it goes down and vice versa.
i look at price action mainly. I see a lot of people on this board trying to draw channel lines, trend lines etc. I don't do that.

When it looks like its going to break support or resistance it quickly reverses. we seem to be in a range. between 89-90 and there were a lot of fakeouts.

ex. 89.5 seems like a clear support area. tripple bottom. held nicely. but then it decides to test 89 even. it breaks 89. so i think we have broken the range, the critical psyc level. But it has other things in mind and shoots up. the same thing when it breaks 90. it decides to test 89 again. So to me it seems like a state of indecisiveness. like its wondering if japan will intervene. That's what i mean. no clear trend unless you are long term trader in which case you just short and hope it doesn't break 93. with the dollar constantly falling the pair should do the same if japan will make up its mind.
  • #13,496
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:06am Oct 15, 2009 12:06am
Quoting sed34
i look at price action mainly. I see a lot of people on this board trying to draw channel lines, trend lines etc. I don't do that.

When it looks like its going to break support or resistance it quickly reverses. we seem to be in a range. between 89-90 and there were a lot of fakeouts.

ex. 89.5 seems like a clear support area. tripple bottom. held nicely....
I see, same problem I guess though.

I was trying to explain this on another thread but had difficult getting the concept across:

Try and think of the PA like a hungry snake, it will just go where the orders are if it doesn't know where to go. So what you see as looking like a break/retest/whatever is all trending terminology. The snake is just hungry without a lot to eat so whenever it sees orders it goes to that area to get filled.

It helps to check the wire before you start trading to get an idea of where the orders are (hence where the PA will like to go).
  • #13,497
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:15am Oct 15, 2009 12:15am
Quoting sinner-
I see, same problem I guess though.

I was trying to explain this on another thread but had difficult getting the concept across:

Try and think of the PA like a hungry snake, it will just go where the orders are if it doesn't know where to go. So what you see as looking like a break/retest/whatever is all trending terminology. The snake is just hungry without a lot to eat so whenever it sees orders it goes to that area to get filled.

It helps to check the wire before you start trading to get an idea of where the orders are (hence where the PA...
Ever tough why price ALWAYS retrace at some times?!? And to the entry plz! Look how price LOVE to retrace at breakout point... and also into last bucket (top or bottom). The "thing" just go and aim and eat profit that are hold by long term trader....

I'm not dam joking! Its a vampire thing. I call that zeroing! Its fun!
--->Price will retrace at your entry.... It will. Trail, stop, BE it, goooo for it! And get stop out!!

PS: Oh I forgot, plz hold into profit guys....., so that my day get easier. Anyway, have fun folks!
__________

Position close @ 89.36
  • #13,498
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:18am Oct 15, 2009 12:18am
Quoting sinner-
I see, same problem I guess though.

I was trying to explain this on another thread but had difficult getting the concept across:

Try and think of the PA like a hungry snake, it will just go where the orders are if it doesn't know where to go. So what you see as looking like a break/retest/whatever is all trending terminology. The snake is just hungry without a lot to eat so whenever it sees orders it goes to that area to get filled.

It helps to check the wire before you start trading to get an idea of where the orders are (hence where the PA...
yeah, i understand. the snake seems to be eating up a lot of people's trades. I need to find a good wire. my broker stopped using Reuters. i need to find a reuters feed
  • #13,499
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:43am Oct 15, 2009 3:43am
Ranging is typical of UJ, thats why this thread is usually so silent. 5-15 min traders don't use this pair much. But UJ is heaven for option traders, if you wan to trade breakouts I would suggest do it through options.
The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent.
  • #13,500
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:03am Oct 15, 2009 4:03am
The dollar will target 50 yen during the current wave, based a retracement using the Fibonacci series of numbers, the strategist said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aQ4Ec6S0yFeY

these journalist and their analyst are getting crazy...this is not normal...there are so many articles circling around the globe about the dollar collapse and its weakness..this is not normal...

I am long USD/JPY
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